Ovo je po meni jedan izuzetan članak na temu budućnosti valutnog para eur/usd. S obzirom da smo vrlo blizu nivoa podrške od 1.30 sljedeća nedjelja nam može dati neke određenije naznake o budućem trendu.
The usual event that affects Eur/Usd trend
The fourth meeting held in Beijing on May the 3rd and the 4th about China-US Strategic and Economic Dialogue has obtained the participation of major political and economic leaders of the two countries. This G2 is practically the most important bilateral event of the year with financial and economic discussions about issues that will impact on world economies. But the most interesting part of it is concerning the implications on foreign exchange and in particular on EUR / USD.
Looking at the graph and labeling for each of the three “S&E D” events of the past years the exact point where there was a change, you can easily understand how this appointment marks the real market mover of the year. In April 2009 we held the first meeting and during the following months Euro flew from 1.28 to 1.51; the second meeting was held in May 2010 and EUR / USD broke into a powerful bull market that started from 1.18 to culminate at 1.49, clearly reversing the trend in May 2011, when it started the current bear market.
So we must be careful about all variables involved in the next few weeks. A bearish break of 1.30 would mean the end of the stability for Euro, with first minimum targets at 1.25, but also to the other side, since cutting up the 50 days moving average (1.322) against the one at 175 (1.336), would provide a bullish medium term signal.
Anyway, there is at least one assurance: this event will start a trend on the cross that is missing now from the beginning of 2012.
Izvor: AGE Italia FX team
