HotForex Daily Technical Analysis

[HotForex]

EURGBP Setups Have Made Hundreds of Pips - http://analysis.hotforex.com/blog/2015/03/11/yet-another-eurgbp-setup-that-made-hundreds-of-pips/



We got it right again in EURGBP. The pair rallied to a resistance level I gave in my last analysis and has then sold off heavily. My view on March 2nd EURGBP analysis was that out of major EUR crosses, it is the EURGBP that is the weakest and therefore makes it an ideal market to sell the rallies. I wrote then that the zone from 0.7300 to 0.7314 is an area we should be looking for momentum reversal signals as the channel midline and the upper Bollinger Bands coincide with the zone. EURGBP rose to 0.7301 on that day and has since dropped over 200 pips. We have now had two very good sell signals in EURGBP lately. The first sell signal as per my analysis came at just below 0.7596 and now the other in proximity of 0.7301. My analysis and the signals that I teach in my webinars have made several hundred pips in EURGBP for our traders. If you would like to learn how to catch moves like this you are welcome to join me to free webinars here. https://www.hotforex.com/en/landing-pages/hf-webinars.html?id=118

As the EURGBP is basically collapsing at the time of writing the weekly picture does not provide us with a lot to analyse. With trend lower indicators are oversold and price is hugging the lower Bollinger Bands. The nearest weekly support and resistance levels are 0.7022 a former resistance level from 2006 and 2007 and the last week’s low at 0.7183.



EURGBP, Daily

Price has extended below the regression channel and has for the first time since January 26th closed outside the lower Bollinger Bands. This suggests that the trend has moved too far too quickly. This increases probabilities for a corrective move against the prevailing trend over the coming few days.



EURGBP, 240 min

EURGBP trend is extended in 4h chart as well. In case there will be a move against the trend over the coming few days potential resistance levels that could turn price lower again are 0.7130 and 0.7180. The lower level is clearly a minor resistance level as it is a spot where price tried to hold the channel bottom. This caused a sideways move visible in the 60 min chart and could act as a resistance should the market be weak.

Conclusion
As long as the market keeps on moving lower and there is no price based evidence to the contrary there is no hurry to close the short trades. Exception to this would be price hitting the 0.7022 support level which could well bounce the price higher and therefore is a logical target level. Price is in a downtrend and we should be looking to sell rallies as long as the approach works. However, once the 0.7022 target is hit the pair is at a major consolidation level and selling rallies might get trickier. Currently I am looking at 0.7130 and 0.7180 as potential shorting levels in case there is a rally higher and 0.7022 area as a target for short trades.

Join me on Free Webinar on Tuesday 17th of March at 12:30 pm GMT. I will show you live how to analyse the markets and look for setups for high probability trades. Register HERE https://www.hotforex.com/en/trading-tools/trading-webinars.htmlfor FREE and as usual it is better to log in early to get your seat!


Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.

[HotForex]

CADJPY Trading In A Range After A Shooting Star Candle - Read more: http://analysis.hotforex.com/blog/2015/03/13/cadjpy-trading-in-a-range-after-a-shooting-star-candle/



CADJPY has weakened substantially since November last year and has over the last weeks bounced higher from a support at 91.78. The support is loosely defined by the lower Bollinger Bands and a pivot candle from March 2014. Last week price reacted lower from a weekly low creating a shooting star candle and confirming a resistance level at 96.74. A couple of weeks ago the pair bounced from 94.17 forming a support level.

 

DCADJPY, Daily

There was a shooting star last week in the daily chart as well. CADJPY has since then moved sideways between resistance at 96.74 and a rising trendline. The resistance coincides roughly with 38.2% Fibonacci level (drawn from December 2014 high to the January 2015 low) and upper Bollinger Bands. Bollinger Bands are narrowing which indicates that the pair is nearing a breakout but to which direction? The last two days indecision is clearly visible in the chart. Stochastic Oscillator is close to being oversold and is about to cross over its signal line. This together with the rising trendline encourages the bulls but the above shooting stars and resistance that are relatively close dampens the enthusiasm.

 

240CADJPY, 240 min

The pair has been making lower highs and breaking support levels since the move to 96.74 was rejected. Fluctuations created a triangle that was resolved to the downside and provided one shorting opportunity on a rebound as the pair tested the lower end of the triangle and failed to penetrate it. Since then we have had a new lower low and lower high as the pair has been moving towards the lower end of the range. Projection from triangle points to 50% Fibonacci level (near 94.17 support). Should that support fail the next interesting support level is at 93.03 as it coincides with a 261.8% Fibonacci extension. I have left the extension levels off from the chart to improve readability.

Conclusion

Trading in the middle of the range is always tricky while the easiest money is made at the edges and the pair is currently trading pretty much in the middle of the range. However, the weekly and daily shooting stars at 96.74 resistance level indicate willingness to sell the CADJPY at those levels while the lower highs and lower lows in 4h chart suggest that the pair should be testing the 94.17 level in not so distant future. This far the 38.2% Fibonacci level and the rising trendline have prevented the price moving lower. In addition there was bullish divergence in the Stochastic Oscillator at the time the pair bounced higher from the trendline. The intraday picture therefore has both bullish and bearish elements while the weekly shooting star points to lower prices from current levels.

The wide range candle from the beginning of February indicates that demand between 91.78 and 94.17 was strong. Quick moves into this area should be therefore met by willingness to bid the pair higher. Should such a quick move happen I would be interested in long signals at or near to the 93.03 support. I will be monitoring the levels close to the upper daily Bollinger Bands (at around 96.20) and the shooting star high.
 

Join me on Free Webinar on Tuesday 17th of March at 12:30 pm GMT. I will show you live how to analyse the markets and look for setups for high probability trades. Register HERE  for FREE and as usual it is better to log in early to get your seat!


Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.

[HotForex]

Copper’s Relative Strenght Due To China Read more here: http://analysis.hotforex.com/blog/2015/03/16/coppers-relative-strenght-due-to-china/



Copper is in a long term bear channel and moved in February to a level that has supported price in the past. This was also the first time since year 2008 that Money Flow Index moved into overbought zone in Monthly timeframe. In February 2007 price touched 2.40 level and moved higher over the next two years. Now there was another bounce from the same level and the price of Copper is on the rise for the second month in a row. The nearest resistance level is approx. at 2.72 while the next major resistance is at 2.88.



Copper, Weekly

Copper (an industrial metal) has been stronger performer than precious metals since the latest US Jobs report came in with a surprisingly high number and strenhgtened the US dollar. While Gold and Silver have declined by almost 3% since March 5th Copper has at the time of writing gained 1.1%. However, the US rate hike expectations mean the US dollar strengthens and buying power amongst non-USD based investors decreases for dollar based assets such as Copper. This combined with slowing economic growth in China slows down the Copper bulls and has caused the price to fluctuate below resistance levels. On the other the hand price has held up and even edged higher as market participants believe that easier lending conditions should improve demand in China, the biggest consumer of Copper globally. The price of copper has made two weekly lower highs since touching the 2.72 resistance level (a former support from June 2010) while the MFI (7) is overbought and Stochastics are close to the same levels and hinting that the momentum is waning. This could lead to further fluctuation between the 2.59 support and a high of 2.73 from couple of weeks ago. Other support levels are 2.55 and 2.40, a high and low of the January pivot candle high and low.



Copper, Daily

The price of copper is near to the upper Bollinger Bands and Stochastics is getting overbought. Price has just recently bounced from a support at 2.59 forming yet another higher low. This was technically a good sign as it confirmed the level that used to resist price moves higher is now a support. The fact that this level now coincides with the lower daily Bollinger Bands makes it more significant support area.

Conclusion

Fundamental factors that both support the price of Copper and resist its move higher translate into a ranging market, price action that honours the technical levels at both ends of the range. Levels near to 2.59 support level used to resist moves higher and are now providing support while the move to 2.72 resistance was rejected. This suggests that short term traders should look for trade opportunities at or close to these levels while longer term position traders might want to consider longs closer to the 2.40 support and shorts closer to the 2.88 resistance levels.  This is the likely range copper futures over the coming weeks and months as major news stories or surprises on either the US Federal Reserve’s rate policy  or Chinese consumption of Copper they might provide the trigger to move the price of Copper to these levels. Chinese premier Li Keqiang commented that the government will be ready to support the Chinese economy should the slowdown in growth affect employment and incomes. He wasn’t specific on the measures the government might use but a hope of economic stimulus in China should support the price of Copper. Against this backdrop traders might want to be buyers near support levels rather than trying to find shorts. This view would be negated if the US Fed indicated that it would hike rates more than expected. However, it is likely that the Fed will be cautious in raising rates.
 

Join me on Free Webinar on Tuesday 17th of March at 12:30 pm GMT. I will show you live how to analyse the markets and look for setups for high probability trades. Register HERE  for FREE and as usual it is better to log in early to get your seat!  https://www.hotforex.com/en/landing-pages/webinar-market.html?id=118


Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.

[HotForex]

Weekly Hammer At Support Send USDCAD Higher



USDCAD (weekly) has been moving sideways since the beginning of February. The proximity of the year 2009 high has caused the sideways move. I suggested in my analysis at the time that USDCAD should move above the latest highs as US economy is stronger than the economy in Canada. The fact that USDCAD has maintained the support well and has now created a weekly hammer candle at the support supports my view. Bears might point out that Stochastics oscillator and RSI (7) have created lower highs and therefore signal that the momentum is waning. This however, is what happens each time price moves sideways. Therefore, oscillators do not tell us anything we wouldn’t know by reading price action. Nearest support and resistance levels are at 1.2409 and 1.2835. The year 2009 high at 1.3064 would be the next major resistance once price moves beyond the 1.2835.

Follow the link to read the full analysis
http://analysis.hotforex.com/blog/2015/03/30/weekly-hammer-at-support-send-usdcad-higher/

[HotForex]

Approaching Resistance After NFP Disappointment



The EURUSD rallied after the combination of a disappointing NFP release, and downward back revisions in the figures. The pair is approaching a resistance area created by a combination of technical factors. The resistance levels of 1.1052 and 1.1098 coincide with 50 day MA and the upper Bollinger Bands.  This resistance has been tested twice and after the latest test EURUSD made a higher low. This suggests the pair will be trying to move higher from here. The next important daily resistance levels are closer to the 1.1460 which could well come into play now that the NFP release was such a disappointment.  Price action at the resistance levels is going to be interesting to follow. If the pair corrects lower from it I expect the correction to be rather subdued. The surprisingly weak jobs figure means that now the Fed doves have further evidence of softening economy and a better case to postpone the rate hike. This is seen in the markets across the board as the USD is being sold against other currencies across the board.

Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.

[HotForex]

GBPNZD Ranging Above Support



The pair has just recently moved higher from weekly support level 1.9379 while another one supported price at 1.9244 sent price higher in the beginning of January. For the last three to four weeks price has been bouncing between this support and a resistance created by a weekly low (at 2.000) from December last year. Stochastics is oversold and price action takes place near lower Bollinger Bands suggesting the pair should have more upside than downside potential. On the bearish side however I should mention the fact that the pair creates lower weekly highs suggesting selling pressure coming in at fairly close to the support. This is not a very bullish sign and could lead to further consolidation at support or eventually price breaking lower.



GBPNZD, Daily

Price is reacting lower from a resistance at 1.9700. This resistance is created by a daily pivot candle from April 7th and coincides with a 50% Fibonacci level at 1.9691. Stochastics are pointing higher and the RSI has created a higher low while the latest low at 1.9380 was roughly equal to the low from March this year.  This bullish divergence supports the upside bias but the price needs to break above the current resistance in order to create a higher high. Should the pair keep on making lower pivotal highs the pressure against the support would increase and the support could break. It is therefore essential to follow the price action over the coming days.


GBPNZD, 240 min

The four hour picture shows...
Follow the link to read the analysis
http://analysis.hotforex.com/blog/2015/04/14/gbpnzd-ranging-above-support/


Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.

[HotForex]

Weekly chart: Gold’s likely to move lower



Gold, Weekly

In my latest Gold analysis from March 18th I wrote: These levels are exactly the levels that attracted buyers in Q4 2014 which suggests that there might still be some demand for Gold just below the current price. However, the psychology might have changed since December last year.  Strong growth in the US labour market we have seen since then coupled with the rate hike expectations could lead to Gold breaking the support this time around. I am not taking a view that it will happen as support is support as long as it works. A close above yesterday’s high at 1159.30 would be a positive signal while a close above the 1165.70 resistance in would improve it even further. This would warrant buying intraday dips after over the coming few days with a target at 1190.

Now we’ve seen Gold closing moving higher from the support level and hitting my target at 1190. In addition, this market has moved beyond the target and turned lower at 1224.50 resistance. At the same time Gold created a bar with a narrow range between the open and closing prices hinting a move lower. This has since then materialised and Gold has moved lower this week. This is suggesting further moves lower in the coming two weeks or so. The next important weekly support is likely to be found near the lower weekly Bollinger Bands and 1131.50 to 1142 range. Long term picture is still bearish while in the medium term I expect Gold to move sideways between the above mentioned support and resistance levels.



Gold, Daily

In the daily picture Gold is trading close to the 50% Fibonacci level and the Stochastics are getting close to the oversold levels. This suggests that the move lower over the last few days could slow down a bit. Yesterday we saw a rally from the 50% Fibonacci level but..
Read the full analysis here: http://analysis.hotforex.com/blog/2015/04/15/weekly-chart-golds-likely-to-move-lower/

Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.

[HotForex]

HOW TO FIND HIGH PROBABILITY TRADES?



In my analysis from April 15th I wrote: We could see Gold retesting the resistance levels at 1198 and 1208. The latter coincides with the upper Bollinger Bands and should price rally there we’d be looking for momentum reversal signals close to it.

As we now know, Gold turned at the resistance and provided us with a great shorting opportunity!

Join me in today’s Live Analysis Webinar and learn how to identify similar opportunities over the coming few days. I will teach you how to analyse the markets successfully and how to read price action when entering and exiting your trades.

Twice a month we gather together to a Live Analysis Webinar to study the markets and recent price action. In these sessions I share my thoughts and analysis on currency pairs and teach our traders to understand what is important when looking for high probability trade setups. This is a great opportunity to watch and learn from what I share and get your questions answered. We’ve had excellent feed back from our traders on these sessions. I am convinced that you will benefit greatly by investing an hour of your time with the rest of us. Please, follow the link below and book your seat.

You are warmly welcome to join me to a Live Analysis Webinar at 1 pm GMT. Book your seat! The seats are limited so sign up now and log in early.

Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex