Autor Tema: Daily Technical Analysis  (Pročitano 122476 puta)

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« Odgovor #60 poslato: 05.09.2014, 11:29:16 »
London Open Intra Day Analysis 05.09.2014

The London open







EURUSD



Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Down
Outlook: EURUSD is trading back up to the negatively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Short beneath 1.2919
Alternate scenario: Awaiting for long setup
Intraday levels: Open: 1.2941, R1 1.2978, R2 1.3014, S1 1.2904, S2 1.2868




GBPUSD



Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Down
Outlook: GBPUSD is trading back up to the negatively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Short beneath 1.6286
Alternate scenario: Awaiting for long setup
Intraday levels: Open: 1.6324, R1 1.6363, R2 1.6402, S1 1.6285, S2 1.6246




USDJPY



Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Up
Outlook: USDJPY is trading is trading back down to the positively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Awaiting long set up
Alternate scenario: Short beneath 105.19
Intraday levels: Open: 105.24, R1 105.51, R2 105.76, S1 104.98, S2 104.73




USDCHF



Time frame: 1 hour
Outlook: Up
Price action: USDCHF is trading is trading back down to the positively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Long above 0.9335
Alternate scenario: Await short set up
Intraday levels: Open: 0.9319, R1 0.9345, R2 0.9371, S1 0.9294, S2 0.9268

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« Odgovor #61 poslato: 09.09.2014, 15:17:45 »
London Open Intra Day Analysis 09.09.2014

The London open









EURUSD



Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Down
Outlook: EURUSD is trading lower and away from its negatively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Awaiting short set up
Alternate scenario: Long above 1.2901
Intraday levels: Open: 1.2894, R1 1.2930, R2 1.2967, S1 1.2857, S2 1.2821



GBPUSD



Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Down
Outlook: GBPUSD is trading lower and away from its negatively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Awaiting short set up
Alternate scenario: Long above 1.6107
Intraday levels: Open: 1.6104, R1 1.6152, R2 1.6200, S1 1.6056, S2 1.6008




USDJPY



Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Down
Outlook: USDJPY is trading higher and away from its positively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Awaiting long set up
Alternate scenario: Long above 105.94
Intraday levels: Open: 106.04, R1 106.37, R2 106.70, S1 105.71, S2 105.38




USDCHF



Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Up
Outlook: USDCHF is trading is trading up and away from its positively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Awaiting long set up
Alternate scenario: Awaiting short set up
Intraday levels: Open: 0.9355, R1 0.9381, R2 0.9408, S1 0.9328, S2 0.9301

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« Odgovor #62 poslato: 23.09.2014, 12:12:45 »
London Open Intra Day Analysis 23.09.2014

The London open





EURUSD



Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Up
Outlook: The layered moving averages have just turned positive
Probable scenario: Long above 1.2864
Alternate scenario: Awaiting short set up
Intraday levels: Open: 1.2847, R1 1.2887, R2 1.2927, S1 1.2807, S2 1.2767




GBPUSD




Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Up
Outlook: The layered moving averages have just turned positive
Probable scenario: Awaiting long set up
Alternate scenario: Short beneath 1.6322
Intraday levels: Open: 1.6360, R1 1.6420, R2 1.6481, S1 1.6299, S2 1.6238




USDJPY




Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Down
Outlook: USDJPY is trading down and away from the negatively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Short beneath 108.59
Alternate scenario: Long above 108.86
Intraday levels: Open: 108.82, R1 109.16, R2 109.49, S1 108.47, S2 108.14




USDCHF




Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Down
Outlook: The layered moving averages have just turned negative
Probable scenario: Short beneath 0.9384
Alternate scenario: Awaiting long set up
Intraday levels: Open: 0.9399, R1 0.9432, R2 0.9464, S1 0.9367, S2 0.9334

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« Odgovor #63 poslato: 12.11.2014, 13:58:04 »
The London Open Intra Day Analysis 12.11.2014



EURUSD



Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Up
Outlook: EURUSD is trading higher and away from the positively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Long above 1.2474
Alternate scenario: Short beneath 1.2453
Intraday levels: Open: 1.2473, R1 1.2530, R2 1.2592, S1 1.2389, S2 1.2369


GBPUSD



Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Up
Outlook: GBPUSD is trading higher and away from the positively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Long above 1.5924
Alternate scenario: Short beneath 1.5903
Intraday levels: Open: 1.5818, R1 1.5987, R2 1.6066, S1 1.5811, S2 1.5732



USDJPY



Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Up
Outlook: USDJPY is trading back down to the positively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Long above 115.88
Alternate scenario: Short beneath 115.24
Intraday levels: Open: 115.78, R1 116.21, R2 116.79, S1 114.74, S2 114.16


USDCHF



Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Down
Outlook: USDCHF is trading lower and away from the negatively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Short beneath 0.9646
Alternate scenario: Long above 0.9655
Intraday levels: Open: 0.9644, R1 0.9710, R2 0.9760, S1 0.9601, S2 0.9553

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« Odgovor #64 poslato: 14.11.2014, 16:03:00 »
The New York Open 14.11.2014.




EURUSD



Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Down
Outlook: EURUSD is trading back up to the negatively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Short beneath 1.2425
Alternate scenario: Long above 1.2471
Intraday levels: Open: 1.2475, R1 1.2525, R2 1.2590, S1 1.2390, S2 1.2350



GBPUSD



Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Down
Outlook: GBPUSD is trading lower and away from the negatively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Short beneath 1.5655
Alternate scenario: Long above 1.5706
Intraday levels: Open: 1.5705, R1 1.5715, R2 1.5800, S1 1.5625, S2 1.5550


USDJPY



Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Up
Outlook: USDJPY is trading higher and away from the positively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Awaiting long set up
Alternate scenario: Short beneath 115.70
Intraday levels: Open: 115.75, R1 116.55, R2 117.10, S1 115.85, S2 115.20


USDCHF



Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Up
Outlook: USDCHF is trading higher and away from the positively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Long above 0.9672
Alternate scenario: Short beneath 0.9635
Intraday levels: Open: 0.9663, R1 0.9715, R2 0.9760, S1 0.9605, S2 0.9555



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« Odgovor #65 poslato: 18.11.2014, 16:15:55 »
The New York Open 18.11.2014.





EURUSD



Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Up
Outlook: EURUSD is trading higher and away from the positively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Awaiting long set up
Alternate scenario: Short beneath 1.2467
Intraday levels: Open: 1.2450, R1 1.2545, R2 1.2605, S1 1.2405, S2 1.2345



GBPUSD



Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Down
Outlook: GBPUSD is trading back up to the negatively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Short beneath 1.5630
Alternate scenario: Long above 1.5657
Intraday levels: Open: 1.5637, R1 1.5735, R2 1.5815, S1 1.5570, S2 1.5490



USDJPY



Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Up
Outlook: USDJPY is trading back down to the positively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Long above 117.05
Alternate scenario: Short beneath 116.40
Intraday levels: Open: 116.62, R1 117.15, R2 117.70, S1 115.80, S2 115.20



USDCHF



Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Down
Outlook: USDCHF is trading lower and away from the negatively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Short beneath 0.9577
Alternate scenario: Awaiting long set up
Intraday levels: Open: 0.9645, R1 0.9680, R2 0.9730, S1 0.9575, S2 0.9530

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« Odgovor #66 poslato: 19.11.2014, 15:53:03 »
The New York Open 18.11.2014.





EURUSD



Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Up
Outlook: EURUSD is trading higher and away from the positively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Awaiting long set up
Alternate scenario: Short beneath 1.2467
Intraday levels: Open: 1.2450, R1 1.2545, R2 1.2605, S1 1.2405, S2 1.2345



GBPUSD



Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Down
Outlook: GBPUSD is trading back up to the negatively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Short beneath 1.5630
Alternate scenario: Long above 1.5657
Intraday levels: Open: 1.5637, R1 1.5735, R2 1.5815, S1 1.5570, S2 1.5490



USDJPY



Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Up
Outlook: USDJPY is trading back down to the positively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Long above 117.05
Alternate scenario: Short beneath 116.40
Intraday levels: Open: 116.62, R1 117.15, R2 117.70, S1 115.80, S2 115.20



USDCHF



Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Down
Outlook: USDCHF is trading lower and away from the negatively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Short beneath 0.9577
Alternate scenario: Awaiting long set up
Intraday levels: Open: 0.9645, R1 0.9680, R2 0.9730, S1 0.9575, S2 0.9530

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« Odgovor #67 poslato: 20.11.2014, 15:50:23 »
The New York Open 20.11.2014.

 

EURUSD



Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Down
Outlook: EURUSD is trading back up to the negatively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Short beneath 1.2505
Alternate scenario: Long above 1.2575
Intraday levels: Open: 1.2554, R1 1.2610, R2 1.2670, S1 1.2470, S2 1.2405


GBPUSD



Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Up
Outlook: GBPUSD is trading higher and away from the positively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Long above 1.5687
Alternate scenario: Short beneath 1.5645
Intraday levels: Open: 1.5680, R1 1.5755, R2 1.5830, S1 1.5580, S2 1.5500


USDJPY



Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Up
Outlook: USDJPY is trading back down to the positively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Awaiting long set up
Alternate scenario: Short beneath 117.88
Intraday levels: Open: 117.93, R1 119.00, R2 119.50, S1 118.00, S2 117.50


USDCHF



Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Up
Outlook: USDCHF is trading back down to the positively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Long above 0.9606
Alternate scenario: Short beneath 0.9552
Intraday levels: Open: 0.9568, R1 0.9630, R2 0.9680, S1 0.9525, S2 0.9475

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« Odgovor #68 poslato: 21.11.2014, 12:37:21 »
The London open 21.11.2014.




EURUSD



Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Up
Outlook: EURUSD is trading back down to the positively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Long above 1.2570
Alternate scenario: Short beneath 1.2530
Intraday levels: Open: 1.2539, R1 1.2620, R2 1.2680, S1 1.2475, S2 1.2410


GBPUSD



Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Up
Outlook: GBPUSD is trading back down to the positively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Long above 1.5715
Alternate scenario: Short beneath 1.5670
Intraday levels: Open: 1.5692, R1 1.5770, R2 1.5855, S1 1.5600, S2 1.5525


USDJPY



Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Down
Outlook: USDJPY is trading back up to the negatively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Short beneath 117.35
Alternate scenario: Long above 118.37
Intraday levels: Open: 118.14, R1 118.70, R2 119.25, S1 117.20, S2 116.20


USDCHF



Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Neutral
Outlook: USDCHF is trading around the moving averages
Probable scenario: Long above 0.9605
Alternate scenario: Short beneath 0.9550
Intraday levels: Open: 0.9582, R1 0.9635, R2 0.9680, S1 0.9525, S2 0.9475

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« Odgovor #69 poslato: 24.11.2014, 15:51:31 »
The New York Open 24.11.2014.




EURUSD



Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Down
Outlook: EURUSD is trading back up to the negatively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Short beneath 1.2373
Alternate scenario: Awaiting long set up
Intraday levels: Open: 1.2363, R1 1.2420, R2 1.2490, S1 1.2350, S2 1.2300




GBPUSD



Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Down
Outlook: GBPUSD is trading back up to the negatively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Short beneath 1.5635
Alternate scenario: Long above 1.5675
Intraday levels: Open: 1.5635, R1 1.5750, R2 1.5825, S1 1.5575, S2 1.5500




USDJPY



Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Neutral
Outlook: USDJPY is trading higher and away from the positively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Short beneath 117.55
Alternate scenario: Long above 118.00
Intraday levels: Open: 117.92, R1 118.50, R2 119.00, S1 117.15, S2 116.55



USDCHF



Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Up
Outlook: USDCHF is trading back down to the positively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Long above 0.9719
Alternate scenario: Awaiting short set up
Intraday levels: Open: 0.9725, R1 0.9735, R2 0.9785, S1 0.9680, S2 0.9630


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« Odgovor #70 poslato: 24.11.2014, 15:58:08 »
The London open 24.11.2014.





EURUSD



Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Down
Outlook: EURUSD is trading back up to the negatively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Short beneath 1.2385
Alternate scenario: Awaiting long set up
Intraday levels: Open: 1.2363, R1 1.2420, R2 1.2490, S1 1.2350, S2 1.2300




GBPUSD



Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Down
Outlook: GBPUSD is trading back up to the negatively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Short beneath 1.5635
Alternate scenario: Long above 1.5675
Intraday levels: Open: 1.5635, R1 1.5750, R2 1.5825, S1 1.5575, S2 1.5500




USDJPY



Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Neutral
Outlook: USDJPY is trading around the moving averages
Probable scenario: Short beneath 117.55
Alternate scenario: Long above 118.00
Intraday levels: Open: 117.92, R1 118.50, R2 119.00, S1 117.15, S2 116.55



USDCHF




Time frame: 1 hour
Trend: Up
Outlook: USDCHF is trading back down to the positively layered moving averages
Probable scenario: Awaiting long set up
Alternate scenario: Awaiting short set up
Intraday levels: Open: 0.9725, R1 0.9735, R2 0.9785, S1 0.9680, S2 0.9630

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« Odgovor #71 poslato: 25.11.2014, 20:28:56 »
Detailed technical outlook



EURUSD




RESISTANCE 1  RESISTANCE 2   SUPPORT 1   SUPPORT 2
1.2450              1.2500                 1.2360          1.2260




Yesterday’s move lower did test but failed to breach the 1.2357 level being the low of November 7. This led to a good rally taking place during Monday’s London and New York trading sessions.

Although it would now appear that on a daily chart basis that EURUSD is attempting to put in a double bottom the down move has been so aggressive and that a great deal more confirmation is required before I can safely say that the daily trend is turning from down to up.

On an intraday 1 hour basis EURUSD continues to trade in a down trend following the breach of the 1.2500 area which equates to the swing low of November 19.

A continuation of the trend lower could take EURUSD to support levels of 1.2360 and then 1.2260.

Alternatively a breach and 1 hour close above the 1.2450 level which coincides with the current swing high would technically change the trend on a swing basis to up.

The upside targets are 1.2500 and 1.2570.





GBPUSD



RESISTANCE 1   RESISTANCE 2   SUPPORT 1   SUPPORT 2
1.5715                 1.5740                1.5675           1.5625



GBPUSD continues to trade in a strong aggressive down trend however the price action over the past two weeks has been in consolidation mode.

There are aspects of a possible daily double bottom forming around the 1.5590 level. It would be of interest to see if GBPUSD can kick higher from the current level and enter a period of upside correction that takes the price action into major daily resistance at the 1.5800 area.

The 1 hour chart of GBPUSD is currently experiencing some choppiness as the price action trades above the key 1.5600 level.

In terms of swings the 1 hour trend has been positive since the breach and close above the 1.5675 swing high.

A continuation of the move higher could possibly take GBPUSD up to the 1.5715 and 1.5740 levels.

Alternatively a successful test of the 1.5675 support level could see GBPUSD trade down to the 1.5625 level.

This (1.5625) level equates to the area of the prior swing low. A breach of this level would therefore effectively change the intraday trend from up to down.




USDJPY




RESISTANCE 1   RESISTANCE 2   SUPPORT 1   SUPPORT 2
118.60                119.00              117.35           116.30






Tokyo continues to be the centre of a great deal of economic news and this is driving the action on USDJPY.

USDJPY has had a meteoric rise however the price action over the past few days has been stuck stubbornly beneath the 118.98 which if the recent high.

Dropping down to the 1 hour chart USDJPY continues to trade in an intraday up trend however the bulls might have concerns that this up move is running out of steam at least for the time being.

The reason for this is that it might appear that USDJPY is attempting to put in place a near term top and a lower high swing.

If the upside bias is to continue confirmation of this is required by USDJPY breaching the 118.60 level with any follow through resulting in a test of the 119.00 high.

Alternatively a failure to trade higher could see USDJPY trade back down to the 117.35 support level. A breach of this level will technically change the trend from up to down as the 117.35 levels corresponds with the most recent higher low swing.




USDCHF




RESISTANCE 1   RESISTANCE 2   SUPPORT 1   SUPPORT 2
0.9730               0.9745                0.9660           0.9550




Over the past few trading sessions USDCHF has experienced a text book pullback and bounce higher as the price action traded within a daily uptrend.

On an intraday basis USDCHF is trading within an intraday up trend. The current upside targets for USDCHF being the 0.9730 and 0.9745.

Alternatively a breach and close beneath the 0.9660 support level would technically change the trend to down.

Further downside targets are 0.9605 and 0.9550.






XAUUSD




RESISTANCE 1   RESISTANCE 2   SUPPORT 1   SUPPORT 2
1208.00                1222.00             1192.50         1186.50




Gold is trading in daily down trend however the recent price action has seen the price action experience somewhat of a strong corrective rally.

This has prompted some market analysts to predict that the down trend in Gold maybe coming to an end.

Technically although the recent up move in XAUUSD has been impressive the daily trend continues to point stubbornly down and this retracement has done nothing more than push back Gold to an area of Fibonacci resistance and a zone for potentially shorting this metal.

However that the recent price action has been bullish and to ignore this strong pullback would probably be a mistake. Especially if one was to consider the opportunities that present themselves on the intraday time frame.

On a 1 hour basis XAUUSD is technically trading in an uptrend on a 1 hour swing basis with the current upside targets being 1208.00 and then 1222.00.

Alternatively a successful test of the 1192.50 level would breach the prior higher low swing and technically change the trend to down.

The down side targets for XAUUSD being 1186.50 and 1181.00.




OILUSD



RESISTANCE 1   RESISTANCE 2   SUPPORT 1   SUPPORT 2
77.00                  77.90                 75.40             74.75




Oil has over the past few days traded off its yearly lows as the market awaits news from OPEC and the plans for future production levels.

On an intraday basis the 1 hour chart is showing signs of weakness as the price action has now breached a prior higher low at the 75.84 level and put in a lower high swing.

A continuation of the move lower could see Oil test the 74.40 level and then go on further to test the 74.75 and 74.15 levels.

Alternatively an agreement on production quotas could see Oil test the 77.00 level being the current 1 hour swing high and then go on to test the 77.90 level.

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« Odgovor #72 poslato: 26.11.2014, 16:20:53 »
ACFX London opening technical report - 26.11.2014





What news will drive the markets today

With the USA heading into the Thanks Giving holiday it would not be unexpected to see the markets experience irregular volatility and low liquidity. However there are some important news releases that are coming out today which could have some impact on todays tradng direction.

We start off early in the European market with the UK's release of the Second Estitmate GDP numbers. The market is looking for no change at 0.7% with a number lower than this possibly adding downside pressure once again on the embattled Pound.

Across the Atlantic at 1:30pm we have the latest release from the Census Bureau of the Core Durable goods number. The market is looking for a beat of the prior report of -0.1% with a consensus estimate of 0.5%.

Later in the afternoon we have the important New Home Sales release again frorm the Census Bureau with traders looking for a continuation of the positive trend. The expectations are for an actual of 471K against the prior of 467K.

In the evening Kiwi watches will be monitoring the news wires for the latest release of the New Zealand Trade Balance. The market expects an improvement of the countries trade balance sheet with estimates of tonights release coming in at -645M against a prior of -1350M.

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« Odgovor #73 poslato: 26.11.2014, 16:34:50 »
www.acfxblog.com





Detailed technical outlook





EURUSD




The macro technical view

Over the past two trading sessions EURUSD has had somewhat of a mini rally with the price action yesterday closing well above the highs of Monday’s candle.

There is a definite feel that a double forming is forming on the daily chart. However as we all know there is no such thing as a definite in trading. Therefore caution should always be exercised as price patterns have a nasty habit of failing.

If however this double top formation does pan out then realistically aim for the highs of the last swing pivot at 1.2600. If this move does gather steam then a price target of 1.2885 being the swing high of October 15 comes into play.

A failure of EURUSD to trade higher could see a retest of the 1.2360 level and a serious attempt at the 1.2050 level which coincides with a prior monthly swing low.

The intraday technical outlook 

Dropping down the intraday chart the 1 hour time frame is currently trading in an uptrend. The upside target for today being 1.2500 and then 1.2570.

Alternatively a move lower could see EURUSD initial test the 1.2445 intraday support level with a breach of the 1.2400 level changing the trend from up to down. Additional downside target can be found at 1.2360 level however the possibility of this level being hit today may be limited as such a move will be outside the parameters of the typical trading range.





GBPUSD





The macro technical view

GBPUSD over the past few weeks or so continues to trade above the key 1.5600 support level with the price action consolidating within a 150 pip range.

The price action in fact is beginning to form a bottoming triangle formation. This is especially clear on the 4 hour time frame.

It remains to be seen however if this pattern is part of a bullish reversal pattern or nothing more than a precursor of an ABC bearish continuation pattern.

As mentioned in yesterdays post a move higher could see GBPUSD target the 1.5800 resistance level.

On the other side of the coin a continuation of the down trend would have the bears aiming their sights once again on the 1.5590 level.

The intraday technical outlook

The 1 hour chart of GBPUSD continues to be bullish with the price action as I write testing the 1.5715 resistance level. The next upside targets at 1.5740 and then 1.5785.

Alternatively a successful test of the 1.5690 support level would technical change the trend from up to down.
The downside targets if GBPUSD was to breach support being 1.5640 and 1.5360.





USDJPY




The macro technical view

USDJPY continues to take breather beneath the 119.00 level with this week’s price action consolidating within the range of last week’s candle.

In terms of the macro view we really need to see a weekly close above or beneath last week’s candle as an indication of the possible medium term direction.

 The intraday technical outlook 

The 1 hour view has USDJPY trading in an intraday uptrend. However there are signs of negative momentum coming into play following the formation of a lower high.

Furthermore as I write USDJPY is attempting to test the 117.65 level being the area of the prior higher low. Although this level has been breached I would like first to see a 1 hour close beneath this level for confirmation that the trend has turned from up to down.

The current upside targets are 118.30 and 118.60.

Alternatively a failure to trade higher could see USDJPY trade back down to the 117.35 and 117.05 support levels.


USDCHF




The macro technical view

The daily chart has now thrown up a question mark about the strength of the current trend in USDCHF with the failure of the price action to trade above the 0.9745 level putting focuses on the bull’s willingness to stay the course.

Could it be that the past couple of week’s price action is now signaling a near term top?

 The intraday technical outlook 

On an intraday basis the breach the close under the 0.9660 level being the prior swing low level has technically changed the trend to down.

A continuation of the move with a successful test of the 0.9630 level could put into play a move to the 0.9605 level.

Alternatively a rejection of lower prices could potentially see USDCHF test the 0.9660 level with a further move above the 0.9700 changing the 1 hour trend to up.


AUDUSD



The macro technical view

Yesterday AUDUSD resumed its downward course as the price action penetrated the 0.8540 level.

Switching over to a monthly chart the move down would appear that a large head and shoulders scenario is potentially playing out with the 0.8065 level now is targeted by the bears.

The intraday technical outlook 

Dropping down to the 1 hour time frame a continuation of the move lower could see AUDUSD test the 0.8530 and then the 0.8510 level,

Alternatively and as posted yesterday a change of intraday trend from down to up will happen if AUDUSD can successfully test the 0.8725 level.

As this level is way off from the current price action I am monitoring the potential for possible double bottom and higher low forming.

This should mean that AUDUSD will trade above the 0.8600 resistance level and then target R2 at 0.8650.


XAUUSD



The macro technical view

As posted yesterday Gold is trading in daily down trend however the recent price action has seen the price action experience somewhat of a strong corrective rally.

This has prompted some market analysts to predict that the down trend in Gold maybe coming to an end.

Technically although the recent up move in XAUUSD has been impressive the daily trend continues to point stubbornly down and this retracement has done nothing more than push back Gold to an area of Fibonacci resistance and a zone for potentially shorting this metal.

However that the recent price action has been bullish and to ignore this strong pullback would probably be a mistake. Especially if one was to consider the opportunities that present themselves on the intraday time frame.

The intraday technical outlook

 On a 1 hour basis XAUUSD is technically trading in an uptrend on a 1 hour swing basis however during yesterday’s trading we did have an unsuccessful test of the 1192.50 level.

A close beneath this level would technically change the 1 hour trend to down.

The current upside targets for XAUUSD being 1203.00 and then 1208.00.

Alternatively a successful test of the 1192.50 level could propel Gold down to 1186.50 and 1181.00.




OIL



The macro technical view

 With this week’s OPEC meeting happening tomorrow the question of will this club decide to cut or not to cut production is dominating the current price action.

On the daily chart we did get an upside correction however the price action over the past two days has paired most of the gains that had been made.

No agreement on quotas could see Oil test the 73.20 level being the most recent isolated low.

The intraday technical outlook 

On an intraday basis the 1 hour chart continues to show signs of weakness with the piece action currently testing the 73.85 support level.

Further downside momentum could see Oil target the 73.20 level and then the 71.50 level.

Alternatively an agreement on production quotas could see Oil test the 76.55 level being the current 1 hour swing high and then go on to test the 77.90 level.

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London opening technical report 27.11.2014.







EURUSD




The macro technical view

The bullish feel to the bigger time frames continued yesterday with the double bottom scenario playing out on the 4 hour and daily charts.

Yesterday’s daily candle closed above the high of the range of the prior day’s range the momentum is currently to the upside the medium term upside target of 1.2885 being the swing high of October 15 still a realistic possibility.

I have shorter term upside targets at the 1.2615 and 1.2770 being prior swing pivots.

The intraday technical outlook 

Dropping down the intraday chart the 1 hour time frame is currently trading in an uptrend with price action currently trading just above the 1.2500 support level.

Today’s intraday upside targets are 1.2570 and 1.2600.

Alternatively a breach of the 1.2500 level could see EURUSD target the 1.2445 level.

A breach of this level would mean that the price action would have traded under the prior swing low and therefore technically changes the 1 hour trend to down

This would open up the possibility of a mover down to the 1.2400 level.




GBPUSD




The macro technical view

The mini revival for Cable has pushed GBPUSD to the lofty heights of the 1.5800 big figure.

Yesterday I wrote about the potential of GBPUSD breaking above its 4 hour bullish triangle formation. This duly happened during yesterday’s trading.

With the 1.5800 level in touching distance the next obvious target level will become the 1.5835.

However the possibility does still remain that the bulls are being set up for a trap as a bearish ABC continuation pattern unfolds.

A move lower would aim to target the 1.5630 and 1.5590 levels which coincide with priors 4 hour swing low points.

The intraday technical outlook 

The 1 hour chart of GBPUSD did hit the initial target of 1.5800 with eyes now being focused on the potential move above this daily resistance point and for a move higher to 1.5835 and then 1.5920.

Alternatively a breach of the 1.5785 level opens up the possibility of a move down to 1.5740 and the 1.5715.

A successful test of the 1.5675 level would breach the prior higher low and change the trend from up to down.




USDJPY



The macro technical view

As posted yesterday USDJPY continues to take breather beneath the 119.00 level with this week’s price action consolidating within the range of last week’s candle.

In terms of the macro view we really need to see a weekly close above or beneath last week’s candle as an indication of the possible medium term direction.

The 4 hour trend is now also looking bearish with the price action now painting a lower low, lower high and lower low sequence.

It remains to be seen if this price pattern is the precursor of a tipping point that propels USDJPY down to the 117.00 where we have support coming in off the back of 4 hour swing high pivots.

However the scenario of a potential bullish ABC pattern does also exist and traders will need to watch out for possible upside breakaways from the current 4 hour down trend.

The intraday technical outlook 

Taking a look at the 1 hour time frame USDJPY has now breached and is trading under the 117.65 level which coincided with a higher low swing. This has effectively changed the trend from up to down.

USDJPY as I write is testing the 117.35 level. A continuation lower could see USDJPY trade down to the 117.05 and then the 116.30 levels.

Alternatively a bounce off support could potentially see USDJPY test the 117.65 level with a continuation and breach of the 118.30 level technically changing the trend from down to up.




USDCHF




The macro technical view

Yesterday I asked the question “is USDCHF” looking toppish”?

Well going by the price action over the past three days and the inability to climb above the 0.9745 does seem to confirm this scenario.

If USDCHF can now trade under the 0.9530 level, the price action would have painted a lower high and lower low swing. This would technically change the daily trend from up to down for the first time in what has been a very long period of weakness for the Swiss Franc.

The intraday technical outlook 


As posted yesterday the close under the 0.9660 level being the prior swing low level has technically changed the trend to down.

The price targets of 0.9630 and 0.9605 where both hit during yesterday’s trading

With the price action now hovering above the 0.9605 levels and successful penetration of support would open up the possibility of a move down to the 0.9550 and 0.9530 levels.

Alternatively a rejection of lower prices could potentially see USDCHF trade back up to the 0.9630.

A successful test of the 0.9665 level would breach the prior lower high and turn the 1 hour trend from down to up.


AUDUSD





The macro technical view

 This morning’s positive and unexpected market data release has propelled AUDUSD higher during the Tokyo and early into the European sessions.

However the daily trend does look horribly down and to try and bet on a bottom being put in off one piece of good data could be a little premature if one was to look at the strength of the daily down trend.

Yesterday I wrote about the monthly chart and the formation of a large head and shoulders scenario that potentially targets the 0.8065 level.

The possibility of this happening does not go away.

For the longer term bulls to gain any confidence in a rival of the Aussie Dollar we really need to see a breach of a lower high swing on the 4 hour chart.

With the current last isolated 4 hour high coming in at the 0.8725 level for this to happen needs a lot more buyers of the Australian Dollar to enter into the market.

The intraday technical outlook 

The 1 hour chart has today given us our lower high breach with the 0.8565 broken during the Australian session.

Confirmation that the 1 hour up trend is in good health would require the formation of a higher lower and for the price action to stay above the 0.8480 level.

The current upside targets are 0.8650 and 0.8695.

Alternatively a test of the 0.8600 support level could see AUDUSD test the 0.8565 and 0.8535 levels.

A breach of the 0.8480 level would change the 1 hour trend from up to down.



GOLD




The macro technical view

 As per my prior posts Gold is trading in daily down trend however the recent price action has seen the price action experience somewhat of a strong corrective rally.

This has prompted some market analysts to predict that the down trend in Gold maybe coming to an end.

Technically although the recent up move in XAUUSD has been impressive the daily trend continues to point stubbornly down and this retracement has done nothing more than push back Gold to an area of Fibonacci resistance and a zone for potentially shorting this metal.

However that the recent price action has been bullish and to ignore this strong pullback would probably be a mistake. Especially if one was to consider the opportunities that present themselves on the intraday time frame.

Looking at the weekly time frame this week’s price action has been trading within the previous week’s price action.

A move away from the 1209.00 and 1175.00 being last week’s candle range should give us more clues about the longer term price momentum for Gold.

The 4 hour medium term chart is still trading in an uptrend. As long as the price action can hold above the 1174.50 level being the last isolated 4 hour swing low the bullish scenario remains intact.

The intraday technical outlook 

On a 1 hour basis the breach of the 1192.50 level has changed the trend for XAUUSD technically from up to down.

The current downside targets are 1186.50 and 1181.00.

Alternatively a test and close above the 1203.00 level being the prior isolated 1 hour swing high would turn the trend back to up.

We have a further upside target at the 1208.00 level


OIL




The macro technical view

The OPEC is finally here. As mentioned in my introduction the Oil news is not that straight forward with geopolitical issues dominating and the impact of USA domestic production causing a glut in the market.

I know it is rather difficult but let’s discount the news as it is very hard to trade off secret meetings and handshakes behind closed doors and just stick to technical’s.

If you pick any time frame from the 4 hour up to the monthly all you see is a strong down trend.

It is fairly obvious that at the present moment that trying to pick a medium to long term bullish argument is a very hard task.

The longer term level I am looking at is the 67.00 level which is the 2010 low. This being potentially a longer term price target and place where possibility of support coming into the market.

The intraday technical outlook 

On an intraday basis the 1 hour chart continues to be very bearish with 1 hour line of control at 74.45and downside targets at the 71.50 and 69.50 levels.

Alternatively upside resistance can be found at the 73.3 and 73.60 levels.


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