Daily Technical Analysis

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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 26.02.2016




The main event for today will be a G20 summit held in Shanghai, where leaders will gather to discuss means to support the sluggish global economy. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said it is imperative to speed up existing structural reforms and use more effectively fiscal and monetary measures in order to attain that.

“Global growth prospects remain clouded in the near term, with emerging-market economies losing steam, world trade slowing down and the recovery in advanced economies being dragged down by persistently weak investment,” the OECD said, as it urged the leaders to deal with these conditions.

The OECD’s mission is to monitor reforms within G20 countries in order to achieve an earlier set of goals of increasing global economic growth by 2% until 2018. In order to do that, more than 800 reforms were introduced since 2014, however, their implementation still remains delayed.

Concerns regarding developments in China is also expected to take a priority in G20 discussions. The world’s second-largest economy has reported a growth of 6.9% for 2015, which was the country’s weakest in last 25 years.

On the over hand, Germany has shown a strong opposition to proposed loosening of the current fiscal stimulus programme. Wolfgang Schaeuble, at a meeting with his counterparts before the summit, warned that space for further monetary easing is exhausted and using additional debt to boost a growth will lead to “zombifying” of economies.








EURUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.1110

Target 2: 1.0920

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0097

Daily control level: 1.0980



GBPUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.4110

Target 2: 1.3805

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0153

Daily control level: 1.4405



USDJPY



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 114.40

Target 2: 110.60

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.40

Daily control level: 113.40





USDCHF




The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 0.9950

Target 2: 0.9810

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0094

Daily control level: 0.9950




USDCAD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.3675

Target 2: 1.3375

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0150

Daily control level: 1.3735



AUDUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.7320

Target 2: 0.7145

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0088

Daily control level: 0.7145




GOLD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1257.00

Target 2: 1207.00

Projected range in ATR’s: 25.19

Daily control level: 1220.00



OIL



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 35.00

Target 2: 31.00

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.99

Daily control level: 31.00






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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 29.02.2016




Today’s trading session is promising to be quiet in regards of economic releases. Nevertheless, investors are awaiting some important events this week.

On Friday, the US Bureau of Labour Statistics will deliver the employment set of data which will highlight the current labour market conditions. This time, the market consensus expects the number of employed people during the previous month to increase to 195.000 from 151.000 of January.

Average Hourly Earnings data though is predicted to slide lower to 0.2% this month in comparison to 0.5% of the last release. Lastly, the Unemployment rate is forecasted to remain unaltered at 4.9%.

Tomorrow’s session is promising to be quite busy with the economic forecasts. Firstly, the data on Chinese Manufacturing Sector will be released by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing. The official PMI data is not expected to change and remain at 48.4 level, whereas Caixin survey, later on, is awaiting a slight drop to 48.2 from 48.4 of a month ago.

Following that, the Reserve Bank of Australia data will capture the attention of traders. The majority of economists do not expect any changes in the monetary policy of the institution. However, the rate statement will likely to give some hints regarding the future economic outlook together with the commentary regarding the current economic conditions.

This Tuesday’s afternoon, the major data event is the US ISM Purchasing Manager’s Index release. The data is expected to improve to 48.6 this time, nevertheless remaining in the contraction zone below 50.0 level.






EURUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.1004

Target 2: 1.0815

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0095

Daily control level: 1.1070






GBPUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.4010

Target 2: 1.3700

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0155

Daily control level: 1.4050




USDJPY



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 115.35

Target 2: 112.50

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.43

Daily control level: 111.00



USDCHF




The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.0060

Target 2: 0.9885

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0088

Daily control level: 1.0100



USDCAD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.3655

Target 2: 1.3370

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0143

Daily control level: 1.3735





AUDUSD




The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 0.7210

Target 2: 0.7030

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0089

Daily control level: 0.7145




GOLD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1248.00

Target 2: 1195.00

Projected range in ATR’s: 26.60

Daily control level: 1244.00




OIL



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 34.65

Target 2: 30.75

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.94

Daily control level: 30.75





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ACFX SPECIAL REPORT – TURKEY




The Turkish economy has experienced a minor miracle in recent years. This country’s economy has risen like a phoenix from the debt crisis of the late 1990’s. The transformation has turned Turkey into a regional industrial powerhouse.

Economic growth and prosperity have brought Turkey an enhanced status on the international stage. The benefits to Turkey such as cementing itself as a member of the exclusive club of G-20 nations and a greater in international negotiations.

A strong and growing economy brings with it a greater confidence. The Turkish Government has been able to flex its muscles as it looks to protect its economic, political and strategic interests in the Middle East region.

Unfortunately, this brought the Turkish Government into direct political conflict with the goals of the Russian Federation.The cost to the Turkish economy has been damaging as sanctions imposed by the administration of Vladimir Putin’s Russian Government is expected to be in the region of US Dollar 9 billion per year.

The sanctions that have been imposed by the Russian Government could not have come at a more unfortunate time. Emerging nations such as Turkey have benefited from an extended period of low US interest rates.

The US Federal Reserve has committed itself to increasing interest rates during 2016. The prospect of higher yields received from investments in US debt has resulted in capital flowing away from Emerging Market nations such as Turkey.

The uncertainty that has shown itself in the forex markets as investors have reduced their exposure to the Lira and bought the US Dollar. However, the weakness in the Lira can be traced back to July 2011. From a monthly aspect, USDTRL at this period was trending in an uptrend with the price-action moving above the support of the cloud and the Kijun-Sen and Tenkan-Sen.






MONTHLY CHART



The weekly time frame demonstrates the importance of using a top-down approach when one tries to analyze the markets. Although an Ichimoku Kinko-Hyo strategy should allow a trader to focus on the one-time frame, it can be seen that breaches beneath the cloud have offered buying and not shorting opportunities. In fact, it can be seen that corrective moves down to both the Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen have opportunities to buy the US Dollar and sell the Lira. Although I would like to stress that these trends are intact until they end.


WEEKLY CHART



The daily time frame has allowed investors to jump on the trading opportunity in the direction of the higher monthly and weekly time window. At the moment, however, USDTRL is currently trading within the cloud congestion area, and the Chikou Span is not giving any clear directional signals. Traders of the USDTRL would now be waiting for a move above the cloud, and the 3.0050 level as this could be sufficient for the Chikou Span could confirm resumption of an upside breakout.


DAILY CHART

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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 01.03.2016




The Reserve Bank of Australia held the interest rate unchanged at 2% level, as expected. However, markets price in the probability that at least two cuts within 2016 will take place.

The RBA in its policy statement this morning reiterated that persistently low levels of inflation could be a base for the consequent monetary policy easing. The inflation is expected to be low for the next two years, with very low levels of oil price adding to that pressure.

The Australian job market also remains a concern to the policymakers as the global economic slowdown is affecting the state of the country’s economy. Tomorrow’s quarterly GDP release is expected to add a further light to the country’s outlook.

Australian Dollar rallied higher on the news, recovering from a week low with AUDUSD reaching 0.7162 this morning.

The rest of this trading day will concentrate on Purchasing Managers indices released in UK and US, the leading indicator of the economic health in these countries.

The British Manufacturing PMI figure is released by Markit at 9:30 am London time. Investors awaiting a decline to 52.3 this time, down from 52.9 figure announced in February.

The ISM Manufacturing PMI will be published at 3:00 pm this afternoon, with the US data still expected to remain in contraction zone at 48.2, which is the case since last November. A volatility of the USD pairs should be expected during the time of release.








EURUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.0960

Target 2: 1.0780

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0090

Daily control level: 1.0965




GBPUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.4070

Target 2: 1.3760

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0154

Daily control level: 1.3830



USDJPY




The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 114.00

Target 2: 111.35

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.33

Daily control level: 114.10





USDCHF



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.0065

Target 2: 0.9895

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0086

Daily control level: 0.9945




USDCAD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.3675

Target 2: 1.3400

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0138

Daily control level: 1.3735





AUDUSD





The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 0.7230

Target 2: 0.7050

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0088

Daily control level: 0.7170






GOLD




The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1265.00

Target 2: 1211.00

Projected range in ATR’s: 27.18

Daily control level: 1210.00





OIL



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 35.80

Target 2: 32.00

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.94

Daily control level: 32.25






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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 02.03.2016



Moody’s Investors Service has lowered the China’s government credit rating outlook from stable to negative, according to the agency’s publication this morning. The long-term primary unsecured debt rating and issuer’s other ratings are affirmed at ‘Aa3′.

The main factors to proceed with the revision of the forecast were the deterioration in the country’s financial performance and weak prospects for their further improvement, reflected in the increasing government debt and rising contingent liabilities.

The enduring fall in the country’s reserves due to the outflow of capital could likely deteriorate the country’s external strength. Even though the Chinese reserves still remain of a massive size of US$ 3.2 billion, they have decreased by US$ 762 billion since the peak in June 2014.

Investor’s uncertainty regarding the authorities’ ability to carry out reforms to address imbalances in the economy, according to the agency, also remains of concern.

Besides, the current fiscal and monetary policy provisions to reach 6.5% growth target are feared to slow the implementation of the necessary reforms, undermining the strength of the Chinese institutions, hence weakening their credibility.

Nonetheless, the current rating remained unchanged as a large size of the country contributes to its credit potency. ”Although GDP growth is slowing, it will remain markedly higher than most of China’s rating peers. The size of the buffers available to face current fiscal and capital outflow challenges allows for a gradual implementation of reform and therefore supports an affirmation of the rating at Aa3”, the agency reports.










EURUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.0950

Target 2: 1.0780

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0088

Daily control level: 1.0860



GBPUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.4100

Target 2: 1.3800

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0149

Daily control level: 1.3895



USDJPY



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 115.25

Target 2: 112.70

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.28

Daily control level: 112.00



USDCHF



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.0055

Target 2: 0.9885

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0084

Daily control level: 0.9945


USDCAD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.3545

Target 2: 1.3270

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0139

Daily control level: 1.3595



AUDUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.7255

Target 2: 0.7090

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0084

Daily control level: 0.7115



GOLD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1255.00

Target 2: 1207.00

Projected range in ATR’s: 23.69

Daily control level: 1210.00



OIL



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 35.75

Target 2: 31.95

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.92

Daily control level: 33.30







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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 03.03.2016




There is a view spreading among traders that the fall in oil prices, which started in the middle of 2014, might have bottomed out as production is slowing down and the demand remains strong.

This morning oil prices continued to show growth as investors are confident that the near future demand for raw materials will increase. The Brent oil reached US$ 37.47 high, and WTI surged to US$ 35.92 last afternoon according to the trading data.

Nevertheless, most analysts do not expect a sharp rise in the oil prices anytime soon, as the supply continues to exceed the demand, and the global stocks of the raw material are increasing with the unsold commodity.

According to estimates, around 1 to 2 million barrels above average demand are currently produced on the daily basis. In addition, some experts believe that the recent attempt of the non-OPEC oil producing countries to freeze the supply will not be able to curb the oversupply in the market.

Yesterday, the US Energy Information Administration announced a 10.4 million barrels increase held in inventory by commercial firms during last week. This is the highest level since April 2015.

The news though did not affect the highly dependent Canadian dollar, which continued to strengthen last afternoon. Australian Dollar has also surged higher and was trading at 0.7323 against the US Dollar this morning, being the pair’s this year high. The US Dollar Index stayed largely unaffected.










EURUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.0950

Target 2: 1.0780

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0083

Daily control level: 1.0896



GBPUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.4230

Target 2: 1.3925

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0152

Daily control level: 1.3895



USDJPY



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 114.70

Target 2: 113.50

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.27

Daily control level: 113.15




USDCHF



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.0045

Target 2: 0.9880

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0082

Daily control level: 0.9945




USDCAD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.3545

Target 2: 1.3275

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0135

Daily control level: 1.3500




AUDUSD




The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.7375

Target 2: 0.7205

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0086

Daily control level: 0.7115




GOLD





The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1263.00

Target 2: 1215.00

Projected range in ATR’s: 23.79

Daily control level: 1224.45




OIL



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 36.55

Target 2: 32.80

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.87

Daily control level: 33.45








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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 04.03.2016



This afternoon at 1:30 pm London time the Bureau of Labour and Statistics publishes its latest monthly Non-Farm Employment Change data.

This publication is part of the Jobs Report that also includes the Average Hourly Earnings and Unemployment Rate releases.

The NFP report gives investors’ information on the number of new employees hired during the prior month.

Market participants monitor all the components that make up the Jobs Report. However, the NFP does tend to have an overbearing impact on the market and can cause large amounts of volatility in all liquid asset classes and the forex market.

The NFP, Average Hourly Earnings and Unemployment Rate reports are published very early after the end of the prior month. Therefore, they can give traders and investors an early warning of economic changes. As such, the Jobs Report is a valuable tool for helping one to decide if new risk should be taken or if current exposure management should be modified.

Jobs related data such as the NFP is important because it is a barometer of the conditions of the United States economy and is also a leading indicator of possible changes to consumer spending.

The market consensus expects to see 195.000 new vacancies to have been filled in February. Today’s forecast if realized would be an increase from the previous 151.000 places that were reported in the prior months release.

The overall trend of the data continues to be positive, however, it is important to consider the NFP data together with the effect on wage levels, released at the same time. The Average Hourly Earnings data, this time, is expected to drop to 0.2%, down from 0.5% of the previous release.

The Federal Reserve would welcome a rise in the level of wages as this will mean that the low-interest rate policy could be relaxed further over the coming year.

Should the NFP actual announcement exceed, the market estimates the US Dollar price would usually strengthen against its major pairs.

High volatility around the time of the Jobs Data releases should be anticipated.









EURUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.1035

Target 2: 1.0850

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0082

Daily control level: 1.0820




GBPUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.4325

Target 2: 1.4015

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0155

Daily control level: 1.4030



USDJPY



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 114.80

Target 2: 112.40

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.22

Daily control level: 113.15




USDCHF



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.0000

Target 2: 0.9840

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0079

Daily control level: 0.9980




USDCAD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.3540

Target 2: 1.3270

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0135

Daily control level: 1.3475



AUDUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.7440

Target 2: 0.7265

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0087

Daily control level: 0.7115





GOLD




The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1287.00

Target 2: 1240.00

Projected range in ATR’s: 23.64

Daily control level: 1224.45



OIL




The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 36.50

Target 2: 32.80

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.86

Daily control level: 33.10







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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 07.03.2016






Oil prices extended the price gains into the Monday opening session on investors’ optimism that the demand for the commodity will grow, whereas the supply is expected to be reduced.

The drop in the number of operating oil rigs has boosted hopes of the market participants that the long-lasting decline in the oil price will finally rebound. The report, released by Baker Hughes on Friday indicated the eleventh week for the oil rigs decline.

Moreover, the possibility that OPEC and non-OPEC producers will finally agree to a production freeze at their next meeting on March 20 is also strengthening investors’ confidence. At the moment, four large commodity’s producers among which are Saudi Arabia and Russia, intend to limit the oil supply at the January levels.

Thus, Brent reached US$ 39.70 high at this week’s opening session with the commodity retesting the top of the downtrend channel which was formed last May. WTI also continue to strengthen as it was trading close to US$ 38.00 level this morning.

Positive news from China seems to add the support to the world’s most traded commodity also as Chinese government voiced its plans to emphasize the growth over the economy restructuring. The target for 2016 was firmly set between 6.5% and 7% when the National People’s Congress was held this weekend.

A number of measures are set to be taken, including tax cuts which will allow the local companies more fund to invest. A broad social financing measures will also be taken to support the slowing down world’s second largest economy.

The US dollar was seen to weaken for the last three trading days, with the index reaching 97.01 low last Friday.









EURUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.1075

Target 2: 1.0900

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0087

Daily control level: 1.0900




GBPUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.4365

Target 2: 1.4070

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0148

Daily control level: 1.4100



USDJPY



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 115.00

Target 2: 112.70

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.19

Daily control level: 113.10




USDCHF



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.0005

Target 2: 0.9840

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0084

Daily control level: 0.9990




USDCAD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.3460

Target 2: 1.3200

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0132

Daily control level: 1.3475





AUDUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.7485

Target 2: 0.7310

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0088

Daily control level: 0.7115




GOLD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1283.50

Target 2: 1235.00

Projected range in ATR’s: 24.13

Daily control level: 1248.70




OIL



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 38.00

Target 2: 34.50

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.79

Daily control level: 34.30






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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 08.03.2016





In overnight news, continuing concerns over the slowdown of the Chinese economy was highlighted by extremely disappointing international trade numbers. According to the Customs General Administration of China, international traded dropped to 210 billion in February. This statistic compares unfavourably to January data of 406 billion.

It was expected that the month on month trade balance number would decline to a more modest 339 billion. This morning’s number is the lowest published reading since March of 2015 and is also the steepest decline since May 2009.

Reading deeper into this data from China, an alteration of the date of the Lunar Year had a dramatic effect on the export numbers. This view is backed up by an analyst report from Capital Economics of Singapore which said. “In 2015, the holiday fell unusually late which meant that more of the pre-holiday rush to meet orders and less of the post-holiday disruptions took place in February, causing exports to jump 48.9 percent year-on-year.”

Later this morning, the United Kingdom Brexit debate will come strongly into focus when the Bank of England Governor, Mr Mark Carney will give testimony to a Parliamentary Committee in London on Britain’s continued membership of the European Union.

The Brexit debate is heating up between the “in” and “out” campaigners within the ruling Conservative Party. Therefore, it will be fascinating to see how Mr Carney and his deputy Mr Cunliffe manage to stick to an impartial line when it is an open secret that the Bank of England favours keeping the UK inside the European Union.

For most of today in Brussels, European Finance Ministers will meet. This meeting will take place just two days before a crucial European Central Bank meeting. The ECB President has on many occasions promoted a dovish bias on interest rates by saying that the central bank will do what it takes to bring inflation back to target. However, to date, Mr Draghi has failed to back up this rhetoric. The ECOFIN meeting could give valuable insight into the mood of European Finance Ministers and their appetite to move further down a path of stimulus.

This afternoon, we have news from Canada with announcements from the construction sector with both Housing Starts and Building Permits publications due to be released. The news from Canada has added significance as this data release will come just one day before a crucial Bank of Canada interest rate decision.

Tuesday is rounded off with data from Australia when the WestPac Banking Corporation will publish its Consumer Sentiment report. This data is followed by more news from the banking and property sector when the Australian Bureau of Statistics is due to announce Home Loans data.









EURUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.1100

Target 2: 1.0925

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0088

Daily control level: 1.0935




GBPUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.4410

Target 2: 1.4100

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0152

Daily control level: 1.4125




USDJPY



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 114.60

Target 2: 112.20

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.18

Daily control level: 114.30



USDCHF



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.0025

Target 2: 0.9855

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0085

Daily control level: 1.0010



USDCAD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.3410

Target 2: 1.3155

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0126

Daily control level: 1.3380



AUDUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.7555

Target 2: 0.7380

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0088

Daily control level: 0.7385


GOLD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1289.00

Target 2: 1242.00

Projected range in ATR’s: 23.83

Daily control level: 1255.00



OIL




The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 39.70

Target 2: 36.20

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.74

Daily control level: 36.00









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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 09.03.2016








Euro declined as the next meeting of the European Central Bank is approaching this Thursday. Markets have already priced in a further loosening of the monetary policy, with the deposit rate expected to be cut by at least ten bps to -0.4%.

The possibility of the boosting the amount of the QE assets purchases also remains in place. Some economists expect the bond-purchase programme to be increased by 10 billion euros a month, totalling 70 billion euros.

EURUSD was trading below the 1.10 key level this morning. The pair has reconfirmed the breach of the daily upward trend channel which occurred two weeks ago, suggesting a move lower might be ahead.

Oil has recently been trading higher. However, yesterday afternoon commodity tried to correct lower after it reached a three-month high in the morning. Thus, Brent oil is trading at US$ 40.00 psychological level this morning, whereas WTI is fluctuating around US$ 38.00 mark.

The crude oil inventories release this afternoon will likely to define the oil price direction further. Currently, analysts expect an increase in stocks by 3 million barrels this week, after the index shown a 10.4 million increase last time.

With respect to today’s economic calendar, the European trading hours are promising to be quiet with regards to any major releases, which could affect the market. In the afternoon session, the Bank of Canada and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will come up with their policy statements, which could cause volatility in the Canadian and New Zealand dollars correspondingly







EURUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.1100

Target 2: 1.0920

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0089

Daily control level: 1.1060




GBPUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.4360

Target 2: 1.4060

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0149

Daily control level: 1.4130




USDJPY



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 113.75

Target 2: 111.45

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.15

Daily control level: 114.30




USDCHF



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.0045

Target 2: 0.9870

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0086

Daily control level: 0.9895





USDCAD




The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.3535

Target 2: 1.3280

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0128

Daily control level: 1.3260




AUDUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.7525

Target 2: 0.7350

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0087

Daily control level: 0.7400




GOLD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1283.50

Target 2: 1239.00

Projected range in ATR’s: 22.59

Daily control level: 1278.00



OIL



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 38.00

Target 2: 34.50

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.76

Daily control level: 35.95







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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 10.03.2016






Today’s session will be marked by the European Central Bank Minimum Bid Rate decision which will be announced at 12:45 pm London time.

The interest rate for the main refinancing operations providing the volume liquidity to the banks has declined to all times low in October 2014 and remains unchanged at 0.05% since then.

The benchmark rate is expected to stay unmoved this time, as deflationary pressures due to the deflated oil price remain, among the others, a heavy toll on the inflation rate in Europe, which is well below 2% target.

Nevertheless, the story is different with the deposit interest rate, which first went negative in June 2014, when ECB adopted a -0.10% level, meaning that banks are now charged with keeping their funds with ECB. Since then further two rate cuts have taken the rate to -0.30%. This time, market participants are pricing in at least 0.1% decrease, with the interest rate, in this case, will be -0.4%.

Short term interest rates are playing a major role in a country’s currency valuation. Hence, a market volatility usually rises during the time of the release.

The importance of this announcement will be amplified by the ECB press conference held at 1:30 pm London time, where additional monetary easing measures are expected to be announced.

The Bank’s primary means to communicate to the investors, the press conference will usually cover factors that affected the current decision including the inflation pace and the overall economic outlook.

During the afternoon trading session, traders will be watching the US unemployment claims data, with the number of individuals who applied for the unemployment insurance during past week forecasted to improve to 272.000 down from 278.000 of the previous release.







EURUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.1085

Target 2: 1.0910

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0089

Daily control level: 1.1035





GBPUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.4350

Target 2: 1.4070

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0142

Daily control level: 1.4170



USDJPY



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 114.50

Target 2: 112.15

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.18

Daily control level: 114.30



USDCHF



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.0060

Target 2: 0.9885

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0086

Daily control level: 0.9895





USDCAD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.3380

Target 2: 1.3110

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0134

Daily control level: 1.3445




AUDUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.7570

Target 2: 0.7395

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0088

Daily control level: 0.7400



GOLD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1275.00

Target 2: 1229.00

Projected range in ATR’s: 22.82

Daily control level: 1278.00



OIL



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 40.00

Target 2: 36.00

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.79

Daily control level: 35.95






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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 11.03.2016





The European Central Bank adopted a greater quantitative easing measures than investors were expecting, as yesterday’s monetary policy of the Bank has unveiled.

In addition to fulfilling the expectation that the deposit rate cut to -0.4%, the Central Bank took more drastic measures which included a decision to reduce the interest rate on the main refinancing operations of the Eurosystem to a historic low of 0.0%. At the same time, the marginal lending rate was reduced by 0.25%.

The current bond purchasing programme has also been expanded to 80 billion euros a month starting this April. Furthermore, this time, the investment grade euro-denominated bonds issued by non-bank entities from the euro area will also be added to the list of eligible for purchase assets.

The initial statement sent the Euro lower, however during the press conference, the currency reversed its move with the EURUSD seeing strongest this year’s gains when the pair reached above 1.1200 level last afternoon.

Mr. Draghi’s commented on the course of future monetary policy by saying that no further cuts are being planned for interest rates.  “From today’s perspective and taking into account the support of our measures to growth and inflation, we don’t anticipate that it will be necessary to reduce rates further. Of course, new facts can change the situation and the outlook.”

The announcement had a significantly negative impact on the US Dollar index, which declined to below 96.00 level, its month’s lowest.

Gold advanced to 1282.00 level during the yesterday’s trading session, being the metal’s one-year high, as investors are looked for safe havens during times of global economic uncertainty.








EURUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.1285

Target 2: 1.1070

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0109

Daily control level: 1.0820




GBPUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.4410

Target 2: 1.4150

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0131

Daily control level: 1.4130



USDJPY



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 114.40

Target 2: 111.90

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.26

Daily control level: 112.55



USDCHF



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 0.9940

Target 2: 0.9750

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0098

Daily control level: 1.0090




USDCAD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.3480

Target 2: 1.3200

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0141

Daily control level: 1.3225



AUDUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.7540

Target 2: 0.7365

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0089

Daily control level: 0.7400




GOLD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1293.00

Target 2: 1247.00

Projected range in ATR’s: 22.99

Daily control level: 1237.00



OIL




The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 39.75

Target 2: 36.25

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.777

Daily control level: 37.00






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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 14.03.2016







Stock exchanges in the Asia-Pacific Region on Monday showed a positive trend before this week’s meetings of the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve. This supported investors’ optimism caused by the results of the ECB meeting last week, when the bank took a more aggressive approach to support the troubled euro zone economy than initially expected.

This action led markets to hope for a speedy recovery of the euro area and also intensified an increase the demand for risky assets.

Investors’ attention this week is focused on the meetings of the Bank of Japan on Tuesday and the US Federal Reserve’s held on Wednesday. It is anticipated that the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates at the current levels, which are -0.1% and 0.25-0.5% respectively.

For now, the US Dollar remains a centre of attention of market participants this week. Even though the probability of the interest rate hike is next to a zero, traders should not yet discard the possibility for a surprise.

In addition to the standard monetary policy announcement by FOMC, this quarterly event will also present updated economic forecasts and the press conference by the Fed Chairwoman, who is expected to bring more light in the future direction of the US monetary policy.

Last week the US dollar was significantly weakened by the ECB’s policy decision, with the dollar index declining below 96.00 mark. Looking its daily chart, the world’s major reserve currency continues to trade a downtrend scenario, hinting that the uptrend established in the middle of 2014 might be coming to an end.








EURUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.1256

Target 2: 1.1030

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0113

Daily control level: 1.0820



GBPUSD





The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.4507

Target 2: 1.4241

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0133

Daily control level: 1.4130




USDJPY




The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 115.11

Target 2: 112.67

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.216

Daily control level: 112.55





USDCHF



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 0.9926

Target 2: 0.9734

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0096

Daily control level: 1.0090



USDCAD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.3367

Target 2: 1.3083

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0142

Daily control level: 1.3225




AUDUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.7642

Target 2: 0.7452

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0095

Daily control level: 0.7400





GOLD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1274.70

Target 2: 1225.40

Projected range in ATR’s: 24.65

Daily control level: 1237.00


OIL



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 41.33

Target 2: 38.07

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.629

Daily control level: 37.00








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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 15.03.2016








As expected, the Bank of Japan decided to keep the monetary policy unchanged at the meeting this morning. The policymakers, however, warned that current economic conditions remain of concern, hence, will likely become an impediment to reaching the previously set inflation objectives.

“The BOJ is trying hard to reduce the impact that negative rates are having on the financial sector because banks have been very critical of this policy,” commented Hiroaki Muto, an economist at Tokai Tokyo Research Center to the Reuters this morning.

At the moment, he interest rate was left at -0.1%, with the current quantitative easing program remaining at an annual pace of 80 trillion yen money base expansion and ETF buying program intact.

It was also decided to exempt US$90 billion in short-term funds from the negative rates, as concerns from the investment industry suggested that funds could end up in bank deposits.

However, perhaps the biggest surprise to investors was the alteration of the statement language, suggesting that a further progression of the interest rates into negative territory might be coming to an end.

The Japanese yen strengthened against the US dollar, reaching 113.56 this morning after the news were announced. The Nikkei index, on the other hand, weakened, as it was trading almost 1% lower on a day.









EURUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.1210

Target 2: 1.0990

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0113

Daily control level: 1.1070






GBPUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.4430

Target 2: 1.4170

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0131

Daily control level: 1.4250




USDJPY




The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 115.00

Target 2: 112.60

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.20

Daily control level: 114.20




USDCHF



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 0.9965

Target 2: 0.9780

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0093

Daily control level: 1.0090





USDCAD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.3400

Target 2: 1.3130

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0136

Daily control level: 1.3405




AUDUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.7600

Target 2: 0.7400

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0096

Daily control level: 0.7420




GOLD




The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1261.00

Target 2: 1211.00

Projected range in ATR’s: 24.89

Daily control level: 1262.00


OIL



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 39.00

Target 2: 35.70

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.68

Daily control level: 39.00






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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 16.03.2016







This afternoon, the Federal Open Market Committee is due to give it latest interest rate decision. Back on December 15, the FOMC decided to commence a policy change which forecasts interest rates being increased a further four times during 2016. Such a policy shift would lead to the Fed Funds rate increasing to 1.4% by the end of the year.

However, just a few hours before the March meeting and with the state of the domestic economy not convincing many market participants that we are ready for a rate increase, anytime soon it would appear that a rate rise later today is not on the agenda. In light of this, it would seem that time is running out for Chairwoman Yellen to push through and complete a four hike dot plot scenario.

According to latest data, the market has priced in a small probability that interest rates will be increased today by the FOMC from the current 0.50% target. Interestingly, however according to market pricing, the likelihood of a rate hike happening today has grown.

The change in market sentiment and how it views the possible course that the FOMC could take today and during the rest of 2016 is being influenced by a continuation of the strong jobs numbers and what is seen as a more positive economic outlook.

Yellen and her fellow committee members although dependent on data are mindful that their policy decisions should not be viewed to be overly influenced by the most recent financial news release.

Trying to keep the correct balance between market expectations and affecting the market through the application of forward guidance is a difficult task. Notwithstanding this, and due to current developments and the overall positive momentum in the data, it would not be unexpected to see a more hawkish tone being set by the FOMC later today.






EURUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.1215

Target 2: 1.0990

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0112

Daily control level: 1.1070



GBPUSD




The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.4285

Target 2: 1.4015

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0136

Daily control level: 1.4450




USDJPY




The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 114.35

Target 2: 112.00

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.20

Daily control level: 114.20




USDCHF



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 0.9960

Target 2: 0.9780

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0091

Daily control level: 1.0090




USDCAD




The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.3480

Target 2: 1.3220

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0129

Daily control level: 1.3405



AUDUSD




The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.7550

Target 2: 0.7365

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0095

Daily control level: 0.7420



GOLD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1256.00

Target 2: 1209.00

Projected range in ATR’s: 23.69

Daily control level: 1262.00



OIL




The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 38.25

Target 2: 35.15

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.58

Daily control level: 39.00






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