Daily Technical Analysis

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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 04.02.2016



Bank of England rate decision day

Later today, the Bank of England will announce its interest rate decision. There seems a little possibility that rates will be increased today. In fact, recent comments by the Governor of the Bank of England, Mr Mark Carney have been dovish and market friendly.

Mr Carney has sighted the pessimistic growth global outlook, the collapse in commodity prices and less than encouraging wage and consumer inflation as reasons to put off increasing interest rates in 2016.

Far from being convinced of the inevitability of a rate increase happening once data begins to improve, some market commentators are now openly talking up the merits of the Bank of England reversing course and reducing the Official Bank Rate from its present level of 0.50%.

In today’s Super Thursday statements, the markets will be looking for a change in the mood of the Bank of England’s commentary. Will Mr Mark Carney now move to downgrading the previous projections for wages, employment and inflation? Furthermore, will we see a seismic shock as the markets have to deal with one or more members of the Monetary Policy Committee shifting their stance from hold to negative on interest rates?

The Bank of England does have some room to manoeuvre as the current overnight rate in relative terms is high when compared to say, Eurozone, Japanese, and Swiss interest rates. Therefore, the Bank of England has some way to go before it even has to contemplate moving towards negative rates.

The question however is, will cutting an already low level of interest rates had any real effect other than stoking the fire under the housing bubble. Japanese business has enjoyed low levels of interest cost for a considerable time without any noticeable change investment.

Fiscal measures could be reintroduced as was the case during the great recession of 2008.  However, the massive stimulus programmes that were initiated by the US Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan and Bank of England have not brought the expected results.

The central banks of the world are fast running out of tools which they can use to stimulate their economies. A race to the bottom in a currency war is not a real solution.

It would appear that the coming months will be pivotal for Mr Carney and his counterparts at the US Federal Reserve and European Central Bank. The time is ripe for better solutions rather than more of the same. The problem for the decision makers is that there are no obvious alternatives.





EURUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.1171

Target 2: 1.1014

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0095

Daily control level: 1.0900



GBPUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.4732

Target 2: 1.4436

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0158

Daily control level: 1.4370



USDJPY



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 119.01

Target 2: 116.85

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.29

Daily control level: 120.15



USDCHF



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.0234

Target 2: 0.9981

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0088

Daily control level: 1.0197



USDCAD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.3915

Target 2: 1.3599

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0187

Daily control level: 1.4110



AUDUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.7261

Target 2: 0.7081

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0099

Daily control level: 0.7000



GOLD




The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1153.00

Target 2: 1130.00

Projected range in ATR’s: 12.49

Daily control level: 1121.00




OIL



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 33.50

Target 2: 30.50

Projected range in ATR’s: 2.36

Daily control level: 34.50








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MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 05.02.2016







EURUSD



The intraday technical outlook

EURUSD shot higher for the second consecutive day. Due to the NFP release the volatility is expected to be high this afternoon.

EURUSD needs to hold above 1.1170 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

The initial upside target is 1.1289, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today. the 1st intermediate pivot resistance level of today. Should this mark be reached successfully, a further extension to 1.1442, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today, could be observed further.

If EURUSD fails to maintain the upward momentum, a move lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.1000, being the pair’s 2nd pivot support level of today.





GBPUSD




The intraday technical outlook

GBPUSD is retracing from a  three-week high, which the pair reached yesterday.

GBPUSD needs to break above 1.4594 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.

The initial upside target is 1.4715, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today. Should this target be reached, the extend to 1.4798, which is the 3rd pivot resistance, could take place next.

If GBPUSD fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur, the target for today will be 1.4426, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today.




USDJPY



The intraday technical outlook

USDJPY continues to retrace from one-month high the pair reached last Friday.

USDJPY needs to hold below 117.17 level, being the intraday Pivot Point in order to continue the downtrend scenario.

The initial downside target is 115.60, which is the pair’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today. Should this target be reached, the extend to 114.40, which is the 3rd intermediate pivot support level, could follow next.

If USDJPY fails to maintain the downward momentum, a retracement higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 118.88, which is the 2nd pivot resistance of today.





USDCHF



The intraday technical outlook

USDCHF declined lower after it reconfirmed the breach of the uptrend channel yesterday.

USDCHF needs to hold below 0.9974 line being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.

The initial downside target is 0.98521, being the Daily Average True Range downside projection target of today. Should this level be reached, the pair could extend trading towards 0.9820, which is the 2nd pivot support level of today.

If USDCHF fails to maintain downward momentum, a reversal higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the initial upside target for today will be 1.00027, being the 1st pivot resistance level of today.




USDCAD



The intraday technical outlook

USDCAD continues to plunge after the pair reached a thirteen-year high last week.

USDCAD needs to below 1.3729 level being the intraday Pivot Point, if the price action is to continue its downward move.

The initial downside aim is 1.3570, being the Daily Average True Range downside projection target. When this level is reached, the pair could extend trading towards 1.3503, which is the 3rd pivot support level of today.

If USDCAD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and returning to trade higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.3906, being the Daily Average True Range upside projection target of today.




AUDUSD



The intraday technical outlook

AUDUSD has bounced off the top of the uptrend channel this morning.

AUDUSD needs to hold above 0.7197 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

The initial upside target for this afternoon will be 0.7275, being the Daily Average True Range upside projection level of today. Should this aim be reached successfully, a further stretch towards 0.7333, which is the 3rd pivot resistance level of today, could follow next.

If AUDUSD fails to maintain the upside momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target is 0.7108, being the Daily Average True Range downside projection level of today.





GOLD



The intraday technical outlook

Gold shot to a three-month high as the USD Dollar weakened further.

Gold needs to hold above 1150.59 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

The initial upside target is 1166.00, being today’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level. Should this aim be reached, a further extension to 1179.73, which the commodity’s 3rd pivot resistance level of today, could occur next.

If the metal fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur, the target for today is 1143.00, which is the metal’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today.




OIL



The intraday technical outlook

Oil price is retesting the top of the downtrend channel this morning.

The commodity needs to hold below 32.26 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

The initial downside target is 32.01, being the 1st pivot support level of today. Should this target be reached successfully, a move towards 30.54, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection of today, could follow next.

If the Oil  fails to maintain the downside momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 35.12, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection of today








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MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 08-02-2016






EURUSD



The intraday technical outlook

This morning EURUSD has traded in a volatile manner as the price action attempts to break out and break down from its opening days range.

The Daily Pivot at the 1.1170 levels has so far offered strong resistance to further upside momentum.

We are this afternoon monitoring a continuation of the move towards S1 at the 1.1088 level.

However, EURUSD first needs to breach the current price structure of the upward pointing Linear Regression Channel



GBPUSD



The intraday technical outlook

This morning GBPUSD initial attempted to break higher from its opening range as the price action traded above its Daily Pivot level at the 1.4509 level.

However, the progression towards the R1 at the 1.4567 did not materialize.

Subsequently, GBPUSD has traded lower as the price action broke back down through the Daily Pivot and sliced through S1 at the 1.4428 level.

This afternoon, we are monitoring the price action for a continuation of the move lower towards the S2 that is found at 1.4370 level.




USDJPY



The intraday technical outlook

This morning USDJPY traded higher from the get-go as it moved away from the Daily Pivot level of 116.83.

However, USDJPY found strong resistance at the R1 which is at the 117.39.

Subsequently, USDJPY has reversed course and is now trading under the Daily Pivot.

This afternoon we are monitoring the price action for a possible test of S1 which is found at the 116.24 level.



USDCHF



The intraday technical outlook

This morning USDCHF has traded around the Daily Pivot that is found at the 0.9921 level.

Presently, USDCHF is now testing the R1 at the 0.9962 level and the upper level of the downward sloping linear regression channel.

This afternoon, I am monitoring USDCHF for a continuation of the move towards the 1.0000 significant number which also coincides with today’s Average True Range projection.



USDCAD



The intraday technical outlook

This morning USDCAD has traded in a small range with the price action initially testing the Daily Pivot that is found at the 1.3847 level,

I am this afternoon monitoring the price action for a continuation of the move higher.

A breach of the downward sloping linear regression channel could see USDCAD test R1 at is found at the 1.3985 level.



AUDUSD



The intraday technical outlook

This morning AUDUSD broke above its opening range bit was not able to sustain a move above the Daily Pivot that is found at the 0.7111 level.

We are however monitoring the price action for a further test of the Daily Pivot as the downward correction failed to trade beneath prior swing lows at the 0.7073 and 0.7052 levels.





GOLD




The intraday technical outlook

Gold this morning found significant support at the daily Pivot that is located at the 1164.00 level.

The price action has subsequently traded higher as Gold has moved above from the prior day’s high at the 1174.00 level.

I am this afternoon monitoring the price action for a test of R1 at the 1183.00 level.




OIL



The intraday technical outlook

This morning Oil attempted to break higher from its opening range but stiff resistance at the Daily Pivot which is found at the 31.30 level repelled this attempt.

Subsequently, Oil has traded lower as the price action broke under S1 at the 30.25 level.

This afternoon, we are monitoring Oil for a possible attempt of S2 that is found at the 29.53 level.








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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 10.02.2016






Today at 3:00 PM London time, the Federal Reserve, Chairwoman, Mrs Janet Yellen will give testimony to the House Financial Services Committee on the Semi-annual Monetary Policy Report.

This hearing takes place during uncertain times for both the financial markets and world economy.  On Monday, the news that CreditSights In., had questioned the German banking colossus, Deutsche Bank’s ability to pay up on its bond obligations in 2017. This report helped to contribute to a meltdown in global indices values.

Although the senior management of Deutsche Bank was quick to issue statements that denied this analyst report, the damage had already been done. The news that highlighted the potential woes of a bank that is so key to Germany’s and Europe economic future has now put the spotlight back on Europe’s financial system.

The idea that we are about to revisit the dark days of 2008/2009 is a worrying spectre. Especially as confidence in Europe’s periphery is still fragile as Greece and Portugal once again returning back to the media and market spotlight.

Italy continues to struggle as it tries to break from the stranglehold of a deep recession and the move back into patchy growth. We do have news shortly from Istat which will publish the latest Italian Industrial Production number. However, following yesterday’s horrid publication by Destatis on German Industrial Production, the head of the European Central Bank will be looking over his shoulder and will be hoping for some positive news from his homeland.

Back to this afternoon’s event in Washington, Janet Yellen has the decision to take on the tone of the testimony. The FOMC has two key mandates which are to ensure price stability and a healthy employment outlook. Although the to-and-throw of short-term movements in the financial markets should not be of a concern, the Federal Reserve Chairwoman could address this subject during today’s key speech.

Of course, a shift to a dovish tone would undoubtedly go some way in giving comfort to investors who have seen the value of their equity holdings shrink since the beginning of 2016. Especially as the falls in equity value is highlighting the strain within the global banking system.

During today’s testimony, the market will be listening to the weighting that is given to the two key FOMC mandates. If Mrs Yellen sticks to the hawkish line that the labour market is strong and that economic weakness being a short-term phenomenon, them one could expect to see a continued move lower in equity values and the US Dollar gathering some respite.

However, according to market pricing the probability of the Federal Reserve dot plot that has forecast four rate increases during 2016 will just not happen. It would seem that the Federal Reserve will be lucky if it can force one rate hike in December. For sure March interest rate increase looks like it is off the table.

To end, the Italian Industrial Production number has just been reported as -0.7%. The forecast was for an improvement to 0.3%.








EURUSD




The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.1400

Target 2: 1.1180

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0111

Daily control level: 1.1160






GBPUSD




The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.4630

Target 2: 1.4315

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0160

Daily control level: 1.4370






USDJPY



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 116.55

Target 2: 113.65

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.47

Daily control level: 115.60




USDCHF



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 0.9825

Target 2: 0.9620

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0103

Daily control level: 0.9980




USDCAD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.4040

Target 2: 1.3690

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0176

Daily control level: 1.3980





AUDUSD




The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.7140

Target 2: 0.6995

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0075

Daily control level: 0.6970




GOLD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1204.00

Target 2: 1178.00

Projected range in ATR’s: 15.79

Daily control level: 1185.75



OIL



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 30.00

Target 2: 27.00

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.37

Daily control level: 30.75







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MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 11.02.2016







EURUSD



The intraday technical outlook

EURUSD is trading higher this morning as the US dollar is weakening.

EURUSD needs to hold above 1.1253 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

The initial upside target is 1.1400, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today. Should this mark be reached successfully, a further extension to 1.1498, being 3rd intermediate pivot resistance level of today, could be observed further.

If EURUSD fails to maintain the upward momentum, a move lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.1170, being the pair’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today




GBPUSD



The intraday technical outlook

GBPUSD has bounced off the bottom of the downtrend channel this morning.

GBPUSD needs to break below 1.4515 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.

The initial downside target is 1.4360, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today. Should this target be reached, the extend to 1.4318, which is the 3rd pivot support, could take place next.

If GBPUSD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur, the target for today will be 1.4585, being the 1st pivot resistance level of today




USDJPY




The intraday technical outlook

USDJPY has breached the Daily Average True range downside target this morning, as the pair has reached a new one-year low.

USDJPY needs to hold below 113.89 level, being the intraday Pivot Point in order to continue the downtrend scenario.

The initial downside target is 110.41, which is the pair’s 3rd pivot support level of today. Should this target be reached, the extend to 110.00, which is the pair’s next major psychological support level, could follow next.

If USDJPY fails to maintain the downward momentum, a retracement higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 113.89, which is the Pivot Point of today.



USDCHF




The intraday technical outlook

USDCHF declined to a new two-month low this morning.

USDCHF needs to hold below 0.9753 line being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.

The initial downside target is 0.9630, being the Daily Average True Range downside projection target of today. Should this level be reached, the pair could extend trading towards 0.9578, which is the 3rd pivot support level of today.

If USDCHF fails to maintain downward momentum, a reversal higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the initial upside target for today will be 0.9753, being the Pivot Point of today.




USDCAD



The intraday technical outlook

USDCAD has recovered slightly this morning.

USDCAD needs to hold above 1.3914 level being the intraday Pivot Point, if the price action is to continue its upward move.

The initial upside aim is 1.4100, being the Daily Average True Range downside projection target. When this level is reached, the pair could extend trading towards 1.3140, which is the 3rd pivot intermediate resistance level of today.

If USDCAD fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and returning to trade lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.3829, being the 1st pivot support level of today.




AUDUSD



The intraday technical outlook

AUDUSD is declining lower this morning, after it proved unsuccessful to return trading within the upward trend channel.

AUDUSD needs to hold below 0.7085 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

The initial downside target for this afternoon will be 0.6990, being the Daily Average True Range downside projection level of today. Should this aim be reached successfully, a further stretch towards 0.6958, which is the 3rd pivot support level of today, could follow next.

If AUDUSD fails to maintain the downside momentum, a retracement higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target is 0.7133, being the  1st pivot resistance level of today.





GOLD



The intraday technical outlook

Gold shot to a new six-month high this morning.

Gold needs to hold above 1191.91 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

The initial upside target is 1132.00, being the pair’s next long term pivot resistance. Should this aim be reached, a further extension to 1255.00, could occur next.

If the metal fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur, the target for today is 1191.91, which is the metal’s Daily Pivot Point level of today.



OIL



The intraday technical outlook

Oil price has declined to a new three-week low this morning.

The commodity needs to hold below 29.67 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

The initial downside target is 27.91, being the 2nd pivot support level of today. Should this target be reached successfully, a move towards 27.01, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection of today, could follow next.

If the Oil  fails to maintain the downside momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 30.31, being the 1st pivot resistance level of today.





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MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 12.02.2016









EURUSD



The intraday technical outlook

EURUSD has bounced off the top of the daily uptrend channel this morning.

EURUSD needs to hold below 1.1323 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

The initial downside target is 1.1200, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today. Should this mark be reached successfully, a further extension to 1.1168, being 3rd pivot support level of today, could be observed further.

If EURUSD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a move higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.1440, being the pair’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today




GBPUSD




The intraday technical outlook

GBPUSD has bounced off the bottom of the newly created uptrend channel this morning.

GBPUSD needs to hold above 1.4473 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.

The initial upside target is 1.4640, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today. Should this target be reached, the extend to 1.4744, which is the 3rd pivot resistance, could take place next.

If GBPUSD fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur, the target for today will be 1.4384, being the 1st pivot support level of today.




USDJPY




The intraday technical outlook

USDJPY is consolidating this morning, after the pair has reached a new one-year low yesterday.

USDJPY needs to hold below 112.32 level, being the intraday Pivot Point in order to continue the downtrend scenario.

The initial downside target is 111.00, which is the pair’s the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today. Should this target be reached, the extend to 109.71, which is the pair’s 2nd pivot support level, could follow next.

If USDJPY fails to maintain the downward momentum, a retracement higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 114.00, which is today’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection.




USDCHF



The intraday technical outlook

USDCHF has slightly recovered after the pair reached  a new two-month low yesterday.

USDCHF needs to hold above 0.9714 line being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.

The initial upside target is 0.9830, being the Daily Average True Range upside projection target of today. Should this level be reached, the pair could extend trading towards 0.9870, which is the 3rd pivot resistance level of today.

If USDCHF fails to maintain upward momentum, a reversal lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the initial downside target for today will be 0.9667, being the 1st pivot support of today.




USDCAD



The intraday technical outlook

USDCAD continues to range this morning.

USDCAD needs to hold below 1.3944 level being the intraday Pivot Point, if the price action is to continue its downward move.

The initial downside aim is 1.3811, being the 2nd pivot support level of today.When this level is reached, the pair could extend trading towards 1.3760, which is the Daily Average True Range downside projection target.

If USDCAD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and returning to trade higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.4006, being the 1st pivot resistance level of today.



AUDUSD




The intraday technical outlook

AUDUSD is continues to range below the recently breached uptrend channel.

AUDUSD needs to hold above 0.7080 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

The initial upside target for this afternoon will be 0.7215, being the Daily Average True Range upside projection level of today. Should this aim be reached successfully, a further stretch towards 0.7250, which is the 2nd pivot resistance level of today, could follow next.

If AUDUSD fails to maintain the upside momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target is 0.7000, being the Daily Average True Range downside projection level together with a strong psycological support.




GOLD




The intraday technical outlook

Gold shot to a one-year high as market uncertainty persists.

Gold needs to hold above 1234.64 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

The initial upside target is 1267.00, being the pair’s Daily Average True Range upside projection level of today. Should this aim be reached, a further extension to 1275.00, could occur next.

If the metal fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur, the target for today is 1225.00, which is the metal’s Daily Average True Range downside projection level of today.





OIL



The intraday technical outlook

Oil price is rebounding from a three-week low this morning.

The commodity needs to hold above 29.19 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

The initial upside target is 30.53, being the 2nd pivot resistance level of today. Should this target be reached successfully, a move towards 32.02, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection of today, could follow next.

If the Oil  fails to maintain the upside momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 28.70, being the 2nd pivot support level of today.









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MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 15.02.2016









EURUSD




The intraday technical outlook

EURUSD has breached the bottom of the uptrend channel on Friday.

EURUSD needs to hold below 1.1266 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

The initial downside target is 1.1111, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today. Should this mark be reached successfully, a further extension to 1.1080, being 3rd pivot support level of today, could be observed further.

If EURUSD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a move higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.1266, being the pair’s Pivot Point of today.




GBPUSD



The intraday technical outlook

GBPUSD has once again bounced off the bottom of the newly created uptrend channel this morning.

GBPUSD needs to hold above 1.4504 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.

The initial upside target is 1.4565, being the 1st pivot resistance level of today. Should this target be reached, the extend to 1.4657, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today, could take place next.

If GBPUSD fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur, the target for today will be 1.4377, being the 2nd pivot support level of today.




USDJPY




The intraday technical outlook

USDJPY has breached the top of the downtrend channel as the pair is recovering from last week’s one-year low.

USDJPY needs to hold above 112.80 level, being the intraday Pivot Point in order to continue the uptrend scenario.

The initial downside target is 115.07, which is the pair’s the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today. Should this target be reached, the extend to 115.82, which is the pair’s 3rd pivot resistance level, could follow next.

If USDJPY fails to maintain the upward momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 112.80, which is today’s Pivot Point of the pair.




USDCHF




The intraday technical outlook

USDCHF continues to recover after the pair breached the bottom of the downtrend channel last thursday.

USDCHF needs to hold above 0.9755 line being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.

The initial upside target is 0.9878, being the Daily Average True Range upside projection target of today. Should this level be reached, the pair could extend trading towards 0.9900.

If USDCHF fails to maintain upward momentum, a reversal lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the initial downside target for today will be 0.9755, being the Pivot Point of today.





USDCAD




The intraday technical outlook

USDCAD is retesting the bottom of the daily uptrend channel.

USDCAD needs to hold below 1.3874 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.

The initial downside aim is 1.3722, being the 2nd pivot support level of today.When this level is reached, the pair could extend trading towards 1.3679, which is the Daily Average True Range downside projection target.

If USDCAD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and returning to trade higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.3935, being the 1st pivot resistance level of today.





AUDUSD




The intraday technical outlook

AUDUSD continues to range below the recently breached uptrend channel.

AUDUSD needs to hold above 0.7100 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

The initial upside target for this afternoon will be 0.7208, being the Daily Average True Range upside projection level of today. Should this aim be reached successfully, a further stretch towards 0.7250, could follow next.

If AUDUSD fails to maintain the upside momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target is 0.7100, being the pair’s pivot point of today.





GOLD






The intraday technical outlook

Gold continues to decline after the metal reached one-year high last week.

Gold needs to hold below 1239.00 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

The initial upside target is 1200.00, being the pair’s next psychological support level. Should this aim be reached, a further extension to 1180.00, could occur next.

If the metal fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur, the target for today is 1239.30, which is the metal’s Pivot Point of today.





OIL



The intraday technical outlook

Oil price continues to strengthen this morning.

The commodity needs to hold above 30.77 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

The initial upside target is 32.99, being the 2nd pivot resistance level of today. Should this target be reached successfully, a move towards 32.32, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection of today, could follow next.

If the Oil  fails to maintain the upside momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 29.82, being the 1st pivot support level of today.







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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 16.02.2016




News that the Russian and Saudi Oil Ministers have agreed to hold talks about cutting Oil production later today has sent Light Sweet Crude rallying above the US$31.00 per barrels in early morning trading.

Today’s talks are due to take place in Doha and have been brokered by the Qatari Oil Minister. This closed door event should resemble a poker match between two evenly matched and very competitive players as both participants will do what they can to minimise concessions.

That the Venezuelan Oil Minister will also be in attendance could be positive in pushing the talks to a successive outcome. Venezuela has suffered more than most from the collapse in the price of crude as the Government of this Latin American country struggles to maintain budget obligations. Therefore, it is in its interest to push a deal through.

Although there has been talk of a deal before, this appears to be the first serious meeting between the world’s big two oil producers. The timing of this meeting comes at a crucial juncture in Middle East politics with events in Syria threatening to redraw the geostrategic map.

The Russian military involvement in Syria and a Saudi Arabian threat to intervene military opens up the spectre of an armed clash between these two countries. Therefore, it is rather fortuitous that both the Governments have decided to open up a channel of communication.

The Saudi Government may feel that as it holds the strongest hand might decide that it does not want to comprise by cutting its own production. The Russians, however, have technical issues that restrict its ability cut oil production as the harsh Siberian climate could lead to wells being lost.

An agreement to introduce production quotas will need the Saudi’s to move away from their current policy that requires all producers agree on crude production limits. However with Iran now freed from international sanctions the prospect of increased production from this country will make the likelihood of reaching an agreement a difficult undertaking.





EURUSD




The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.1280

Target 2: 1.1025

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0128

Daily control level: 1.1270





GBPUSD




The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.4595

Target 2: 1.4270

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0162

Daily control level: 1.4530




USDJPY





The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 116.30

Target 2: 112.85

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.74

Daily control level: 111.60




USDCHF



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.9980

Target 2: 0.9755

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0112

Daily control level: 0.9720





USDCAD




The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.4000

Target 2: 1.3670

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0165

Daily control level: 1.3850




AUDUSD




The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.7280

Target 2: 0.7070

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0104

Daily control level: 0.7125





GOLD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1230.00

Target 2: 1185.00

Projected range in ATR’s: 22.89

Daily control level: 1245.00




OIL



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 32.00

Target 2: 28.00

Projected range in ATR’s: 2.13

Daily control level: 29.00











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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 17.02.2016





The US, Federal Reserve Open Market Committee will today publish the much anticipated minutes of its last meeting.

These minutes are a detailed account of last Federal Reserve meeting. As such, this publication provides to market participants and financial media some colour on the backdrop of the meeting. These minutes allows traders to gain insights on how individual FOMC members are positioned with respect to interest rates as we approach the next Federal Reserve meeting that takes place in March.

We expect that this publication will portray rather balanced tone were the bias for tightening is limited by the current uncertainty that has gripped the market.

The minutes of the December meeting presented a united picture in terms of how the committee members unanimously voted for a rate increase. However, some members of the FOMC did voice concerns that this decision to hike the Fed Funds rate may have been premature.

Market volatility is bound to increase just prior and during the publication. However, what will be of interest will be to see if the dissenting voices within the Federal Reserve are getting stronger and if other members of the committee who previously backed Decembers rate increase now appear to be regretting their decision.







EURUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.1270

Target 2: 1.1015

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0127

Daily control level: 1.1190




GBPUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.4470

Target 2: 1.4135

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0166

Daily control level: 1.4515




USDJPY



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 115.90

Target 2: 112.30

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.80

Daily control level: 114.90



USDCHF



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.9995

Target 2: 0.9775

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0111

Daily control level: 0.9845




USDCAD




The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.4025

Target 2: 1.3700

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0164

Daily control level: 1.3705




AUDUSD




The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 0.7210

Target 2: 0.7010

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0102

Daily control level: 0.7120




GOLD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1224.00

Target 2: 1177.00

Projected range in ATR’s: 23.42

Daily control level: 1217.55



OIL



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 31.00

Target 2: 27.00

Projected range in ATR’s: 2.06

Daily control level: 31.50






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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 18.02.2016


Yesterday, the Unite States, Federal Reserve published the minutes of January’s interest rate decision.

It was expected that the FOMC would take into account the events since the December interest rate rise and this was what the message the markets received.

The FOMC minutes, on the whole, gave us no surprises with the transcripts being more or less in line with last week’s testimony by the Fed chairwoman Janet Yellen to the House Financial Services Committee.

Fed Officials saw the events since December have increased the Downside risk.  The inflation outlook remained uncertain and external factors are a continued source of concern with the confusing situation in China hindering the FOMC’s policy decision making.

Furthermore, the FOMC Expect inflation to be lower for a long time due to the depressed price of crude oil. The FOMC was of the opinion that oil and an improvement in the US economy could help bring inflation back to target but was not sure how long the downside risks will last for.

The strength of the US Dollar was discussed and according to the minutes with concerns that the Green Backs inflated value would hinder a recovery in the manufacturing sector.

Of all the concerns the FOMC highlighted the high volatility in the financial markets as the biggest issue and could lead to an amplification of the downside risks.

The Federal Reserved based the December increase on data that indicated that the job market is strong and that the expectation that inflation will increase.

The landscape since the December rate hike has changed dramatically. What is certain is that the FOMC would not have moved to increase interest rates in December if these events had happened in November.

The minutes portrayed an FOMC that is not only data dependent but also unsure of the trend of the data.

This leads us nicely to the forecasts made by the Federal Reserve which according to their now discredited dot plot predicted that there will be four interest rate increases in 2016.  Although the FOMC have not admitted defeat, the dot plot is no longer being mentioned and the idea that the FOMC will abide by their prediction has been priced out by the market.

As if history is about to repeat itself and very much like the back end of 2015 the market has increased the odd of a December increase.

Such a move will only happen if the data fits.








EURUSD




The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.1245

Target 2: 1.1005

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0120

Daily control level: 1.1180



GBPUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.4450

Target 2: 1.4140

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0154

Daily control level: 1.4340



USDJPY



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 115.65

Target 2: 112.40

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.64

Daily control level: 114.85



USDCHF



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.0030

Target 2: 0.9815

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0107

Daily control level: 0.9845




USDCAD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.3840

Target 2: 1.3505

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0169

Daily control level: 1.3910



AUDUSD




The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.7280

Target 2: 0.7100

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0104

Daily control level: 0.7080




GOLD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1232.00

Target 2: 1185.00

Projected range in ATR’s: 23.36

Daily control level: 1217.55




OIL




The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 31.00

Target 2: 27.00

Projected range in ATR’s: 2.13

Daily control level: 31.50










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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 19.02.2016


This morning, the British Prime Minister, Mr David Cameron will hold intensive meetings with other European Union leaders.

The discussions have been portrayed as a high-stakes meeting which will define not only Britain’s relationship with the European Union but also the success or failure of the whole European project.

Mr Cameron has to return from the meetings with an agreement that he can be presented to the right of the Conservative Party and also to a British public that is becoming increasingly dissolution by the European Union.

The British Prime Minister has focussed on two main areas which he feels concessions can be extracted from the UK’s European partners.

These being the explosive subject of migrant welfare and the protection of the City of London’s dominance as a global centre for finance.

The whole European Union Migrant issues is a very popular story with the British tabloid press. However, in reality, the cost to the British taxpayer is negligible. Migration from countries like Poland, the Czech Republic and Slovakia have benefited the country as young and enthusiastic new citizens have integrated into the fabric of the country and have contributed to the economy.

Mr Cameron, however, wants concessions which will appease Conservative voters who have been enticed the message that is being delivered from UKIP that anything and everything European is bad for Britain.

A deal on migration will probably be fudged through but this will be much to the annoyance of Eastern European leaders who will argue that a deal to limit welfare payments to their former citizens will go against the ethos of the European Union’s project.

On the question of over regulation of the City of London’s financial institutions, there does need to be a review of the current legislation so as to ensure it is fit for purpose. However, it has only been eight years since we had a financial meltdown that was caused in part by a lack of regulation. Therefore, it is difficult to see the British Prime Minister getting his own way and to a degree, we should be thankful that the big financial institutions are not allowed to do as they please.

London’s role as a global financial centre will only grow over the coming years. Attempts by Paris and Frankfurt to rest the crown from the City have failed due to London’s attractive cocktail of skilled labour and lifestyle choices. London will survive an exit from the European Union but Frankfurt and Paris will once more try to challenge the old lady’s preeminent position.

The European Union and Britain need each other. The UK and the Union are massive trading partners and their economies and financial systems are just too integrated for a Brexit to even be contemplated.

The discussion about Brexit needs to be expanded as there is a need for an agenda to be put together which looks at reforming the European Union. It is hoped that today’s discussions are just the beginning of a thorough and comprehensive EU-wide reform process.











EURUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.1225

Target 2: 1.0990

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0119

Daily control level: 1.1180



GBPUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.4480

Target 2: 1.4190

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0148

Daily control level: 1.4395




USDJPY



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 114.90

Target 2: 111.50

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.67

Daily control level: 114.50



USDCHF



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.0035

Target 2: 0.9820

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0106

Daily control level: 0.9845



USDCAD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.3800

Target 2: 1.3675

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0167

Daily control level: 1.3910



AUDUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.7260

Target 2: 0.7055

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0104

Daily control level: 0.7080




GOLD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1256.00

Target 2: 1205.00

Projected range in ATR’s: 23.30

Daily control level: 1200.00



OIL




The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 32.50

Target 2: 28.50

Projected range in ATR’s: 2.04

Daily control level: 28.65








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MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 22.02.2016






EURUSD



The intraday technical outlook

EURUSD has resumed the downward trend after the last week’s consolidation

EURUSD needs to hold below 1.1110 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

The initial downside target is 1.1037, which is the 2nd pivot support level.  Should this mark be reached successfully, a further extension to 1.0990, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today, could be observed further.

If EURUSD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a move higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.1155, being the pair’s 1st pivot resistance level of today.




GBPUSD



The intraday technical outlook

GBPUSD plummeted this morning, as the concerns over the potential exit of Britain from the EU worries investors. At the moment, the pair is retesting the bottom of the newly created downtrend channel.

GBPUSD needs to hold below 1.4353 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.

The initial downside target is 1.4095, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today. Should this target be reached, the extend to 1.4050, could take place next.

If GBPUSD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur, the target for today will be 1.4353, being the Pivot Point of today.



USDJPY



The intraday technical outlook

USDJPY is trading higher this morning, with the likely intention to retest the top of the downward trend channel.

USDJPY needs to hold above 112.76  level, being the intraday Pivot Point in order to continue the downtrend scenario.

The initial upside target is 113.82, which is the pair’s 2nd pivot resistance of today. Should this target be reached, the extend to 114.20, which is the pair’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today, could follow next.

If USDJPY fails to maintain the upward momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 112.15, which is today’s 1st pivot support level of the pair together with the previous low of the pair.



USDCHF



The intraday technical outlook

USDCHF is trading higher this morning, after the pair broke a short-term uptrend channel last Friday.

USDCHF needs to hold above 0.9917 line being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.

The initial upside target is 1.0000, being the Daily Average True Range upside projection target of today together with the pair’s major resistance level. Should this target be reached, the pair could extend trading towards 1.0027, which is the 3rd pivot resistance of today.

If USDCHF fails to maintain upward momentum, a reversal lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the initial downside target for today will be 0.9892, being the 1st intermediate pivot support of today.



USDCAD



The intraday technical outlook

USDCAD has once again breached the bottom of the daily uptrend channel.

USDCAD needs to hold below 1.3774 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.

The initial downside aim is 1.3671, being the 2nd intermediate pivot support of today. When this level is reached, the pair could extend trading towards 1.3605, which is the Daily Average True Range downside projection target.

If USDCAD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and returning to trade higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.3836, being the 1st pivot resistance of today.



AUDUSD



The intraday technical outlook

AUDUSD returned to trade within the uptrend channel limits this morning.

AUDUSD needs to hold above 0.7125 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

The initial upside target for this afternoon will be 0.7220, being the 2nd pivot resistance of today. Should this aim be reached successfully, a further stretch towards 0.7250, which is the Daily Average True Range upside projection level of today, could follow next.

If AUDUSD fails to maintain the upside momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target is 0.7125, being the pair’s pivot point of today.



GOLD



The intraday technical outlook

Gold has breached the bottom of the uptrend channel this morning, signalling a move lower might be ahead.

Gold needs to hold below 1226.63 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

The initial downside target is 1199.00, being the commodity’s Daily Average True Range downside projection level of today. Should this aim be reached, a further extension to 1190.00, could occur next.

If the metal fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur, the target for today is 1226.63, which is the metal’s Pivot Point of today.



OIL



The intraday technical outlook

Oil price continues to recover this morning.

The commodity needs to hold above 32.24 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

The initial upside target is 34.08, being the Daily Average True Range upside projection level of today. Should this target be reached successfully, a move towards 34.61, could follow next.

If the Oil  fails to maintain the upside momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 31.37, being 1st pivot support level of today.









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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 23.02.2016






This morning 9:00 AM London time Ifo Institute for Economic Research will release the German Ifo Business Climate numbers.

This report is released on a monthly basis and some three weeks into the current month.

The Ifo is a survey of current and future business sentiment with respondents also requested to rate their expectation six months forward from the survey date.

Due to the size and breadth of this report, the result of this survey is highly respected. This is because some 7000 business across Germany which are active in diverse sectors from manufacturing, construction, wholesale and retail are requested to respond.

The German Ifo Business Climate Survey is a leading indicator of the economic health of the country. As businesses can quickly recognize and adapt to the constantly changing market environment, this survey has proven to be a timely leading indicator to possible future economic activity.

Germany is the 4th largest economy in the world and by far the biggest and the most dominant within the European Union. This makes what happens in Germany very important. The release of the German Ifo can affect economic expectations and values of financial instruments not only in Germany but throughout the European Union.

The Ifo furthermore can have a dramatic effect on the Euro and the Euro crosses. Market volatility around the time of the Ifo release can potentially increase.

The forecasts for this month release are projecting the slight decrease to 107.0, as compared to the previous number of 107.3.

A result that is higher than expected could potentially have a positive effect on the Euro currency whereas an actual release that is lower than expected could see the single currency come under pressure.

The reason for this is an optimistic business outlook can precede an increase in business activity and economic growth whereas a pessimistic business outlook could indicate a future contraction in business activity and possible stagnation or drop off of economic growth.

As economic expansion is seen as being inflationary and economic contraction being deflationary the European Central Bank, (ECB) may step in an increase or decrease interest rates so as to ensure that the influential and dominant German economy does not grow or contract too quickly.







EURUSD




The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.1140

Target 2: 1.0915

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0112

Daily control level: 1.1140





GBPUSD




The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.4305

Target 2: 1.3990

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0158

Daily control level: 1.4405




USDJPY




The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 114.40

Target 2: 111.30

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.55

Daily control level: 113.40






USDCHF



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.0100

Target 2: 0.9890

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0103

Daily control level: 0.9885





USDCAD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.3955

Target 2: 1.3550

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0149

Daily control level: 1.3845





AUDUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.7320

Target 2: 0.7130

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0095

Daily control level: 0.7065



GOLD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1235.00

Target 2: 1182.00

Projected range in ATR’s: 26.52

Daily control level: 1234.00





OIL






The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 35.20

Target 2: 31.40

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.90

Daily control level: 31.35






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MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 24.02.2016










EURUSD




The intraday technical outlook

EURUSD reached a new three-week low this morning.

EURUSD needs to hold below 1.1019 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

The initial downside target is 1.0956, which is the 1st pivot support level.  Should this mark be reached successfully, a further extension to 1.0915, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today, could be observed further.

If EURUSD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a move higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.1019, being the pair’s Pivot Point of today.





GBPUSD



The intraday technical outlook

GBPUSD has reached a seven-month low this morning.

GBPUSD needs to hold below 1.4061 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.

The initial downside target is 1.3860, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today. Should this target be reached, the extend to 1.3800, which is the next key level, could take place next.

If GBPUSD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur, the target for today will be 1.4061, being the Pivot Point of today.




USDJPY



The intraday technical outlook

USDJPY is consolidating under the recently breached short-term uptrend channel.

USDJPY needs to hold below 112.30  level, being the intraday Pivot Point in order to continue the downtrend scenario.

The initial downside target is 111.02, which is the pair’s 2nd pivot support of today. Should this target be reached, the extend to 110.60, being the pair’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today, could follow next.

If USDJPY fails to maintain the downward momentum, a retracement higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 112.83, which is the 1st pivot resistance of the pair.




USDCHF



The intraday technical outlook

USDCHF is consolidating around the daily pivot point in indecision.

USDCHF needs to hold above 0.9935 line being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.

The initial upside target is 0.9976, being the 2nd intermediate pivot resistance and also coinciding with the previous high. Should this target be reached, the pair could extend trading towards 1.0041, which is the 2nd pivot resistance of today.

If USDCHF fails to maintain upward momentum, a reversal lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the initial downside target for today will be 0.9871, being the 1st pivot support of today.



USDCAD



The intraday technical outlook

USDCAD is consolidating under the recently breached daily uptrend channel.

USDCAD needs to hold above 1.3768 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.

The initial upside aim is 1.3895, being the 2nd pivot resistance of today. When this level is reached, the pair could extend trading towards 1.3935, being the pair’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today.

If USDCAD fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and returning to trade lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.3641, being today’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today.




AUDUSD



The intraday technical outlook

AUDUSD has once again breached the bottom of the uptrend channel this morning.

AUDUSD needs to hold below 0.7219 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

The initial downside target for this afternoon will be 0.7120, being the 3rd pivot support of today. Should this aim be reached successfully, a further stretch towards 0.7105, which is the pair’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today could follow next.

If AUDUSD fails to maintain the downside momentum, a retracement higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target is 0.7219, being the pair’s Pivot Point of today.



GOLD



The intraday technical outlook

Gold is retesting to return within the limits of the recently breached uptrend channel.

Gold needs to hold above 1220.15 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

The initial upside target is 1250.00, being the commodity’s Daily Average True Range upside projection level of today. Should this aim be reached, a further extension to 1254.31, could develop next.

If the metal fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur, the target for today is 1212.21, which is the metal’s 1st pivot support of today.




OIL




The intraday technical outlook

Oil price is plummeting, as one more meeting between oil-producing countries failed to reach an agreement.

The commodity needs to hold below 32.36 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

The initial downside target is 30.90, being the 1st pivot support of today. Should this target be reached successfully, a move towards 30.09, could follow next.

If the Oil  fails to maintain the downside momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 33.17, being 1st pivot resistance level of today.









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[ACFX AtlasCapital]

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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 25.02.2016






The British Prime Minister David Cameron is prepared to engage the Bank of England in order to keep Britain in the European Union. According to his speech on Tuesday, the policymakers “will make sure that the Treasury and the Bank of England and other authoritative organisations set out the facts, set out the figures so people can make a judgment.”

In the meantime, the pound continues to weaken against its major counterparts, with the GBPUSD hitting a new seven-year low yesterday afternoon and trading below 1.3900 marks.

Mark Carney, the BoE Governor, is ready to loosen the monetary policy, saying that the Bank is open to the interest rate cuts and extending a bond-buying programme if required. Even though the slowdown in the global economy has not yet significantly affected the UK growth. He also emphasized his view that the local interest rates will be unlikely to be raised from the record low of 0.5% over the next three years.

Second Estimate UK GDP data release will open this morning at 9:30 am London time. The change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services within the country is expected to remain unaltered from the last quarter at 0.5%. Provided the release will not show significant deviations from the forecast, this event is unlikely to significantly affect the British Pound.








EURUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.1110

Target 2: 1.0910

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0100

Daily control level: 1.1050




GBPUSD





The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.4180

Target 2: 1.3765

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0159

Daily control level: 1.4405



USDJPY




The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 113.65

Target 2: 110.70

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.50

Daily control level: 113.40




USDCHF



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 0.9980

Target 2: 0.9790

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0096

Daily control level: 0.9950




USDCAD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.3800

Target 2: 1.3675

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0145

Daily control level: 1.3660




AUDUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.7280

Target 2: 0.7110

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0087

Daily control level: 0.7065






GOLD




The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1254.00

Target 2: 1200.00

Projected range in ATR’s: 26.77

Daily control level: 1201.00




OIL



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 34.00

Target 2: 30.00

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.98

Daily control level: 33.50







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