Daily Technical Analysis

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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 26.11.2015




The quarterly Australian Private Expenditure data has opened this trading day with quite a disappointing results, as it showed that the spending by the private businesses decreased to -9.2 % against -2.8% expected.

This data completed this year’s set of the releases with all of them in the negative side and reached the worst results since February 2000, pulling the recently recovering AUDUSD pair to the downside.

“In an acknowledgment that the below-par economic growth of the past three years will persist, the Treasury’s top forecaster, Nigel Ray, said next month’s budget update would assume long-term growth of 2.75 per cent, down from about 3 percent” – the Australian Financial Review reports.

“A sharp slowdown in population growth since export prices peaked in 2011 means the economy won’t expand as fast as previously assumed. Lower growth could mean a future of fewer jobs and poorer investment returns. It would hit taxes, making it harder to pay for promised raises in defence, education, old age and welfare services” – Jacob Greber, observes in his recent article.

For now the probability of a further interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia in the near future is increasing, as fewer people will mean fewer employees and, therefore, an additional drop in productivity.

The European trading session today looks quite deserted regarding the economic releases, whereas the American markets are closed for the Thanksgiving holiday. Thus, the low trading volume will likely govern the market though the risk of volatility in case of any significant event enters the media headlines.

Despite some retracement yesterday, it seems the dollar index is continuing to persist on the way up, bouncing off the 99.75 support this morning and likely heading to retest the recent high of 100.20.

Gold, the traders’ favourite commodity after the oil is remaining to trade at five-year low, trading a descending triangle pattern, which could suggest a move lower might be ahead.
Oil price, after encountering some volatility, has managed to keep the positions it gained on Monday on Saudi Arabia’s comments. The crude was trading above US$ 43.10 support and daily pivot point this morning.



EURUSD





The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.0700

Target 2: 1.0540

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0084

Daily control level: 1.0690





GBPUSD




The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.5200

Target 2: 1.5040

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0081

Daily control level: 1.5050




USDJPY




The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 123.20

Target 2: 122.15

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.56

Daily control level: 123.00





USDCHF




The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.0280

Target 2: 1.0135

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0073

Daily control level: 1.0140






USDCAD




The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.3360

Target 2: 1.3215

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0073

Daily control level: 1.3340





AUDUSD




The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.7315

Target 2: 0.7185

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0064

Daily control level: 0.7155




GOLD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1082.00

Target 2: 1058.00

Projected range in ATR’s: 12.30

Daily control level: 1081.00







OIL



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 44.80

Target 2: 41.80

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.49

Daily control level: 42.15




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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 27.11.2015


As we head into next week and the start of the last month of 2015, one would have expected that the markets would be in a holiday mode as trading volumes decline during the beginning of the festive season.

In reality, the opposite is very much the case. On Thursday of next week, Mr. Mario Draghi, who is the president of the European Central Bank will give his final and probably most important press conference of the year.

The markets are expecting President Draghi to announce new measures that will help to kick start the Euro-Zones patchy economic recovery.

There have been complications since the last ECB meeting with a refugee crisis vividly shown on European television channels causing real friction between the leadership of political parties and the rank and file members as well as between European Union member Governments.

This refugee crisis has been followed by the tragic events that have unfolded in Paris and the need to shut down productive economic activity in much of Belgium due to fears of further terrorist action.

With the Schengen treaty that allows for the free movement of persons within the European Union Member borders now under real threat the fear is that the Geopolitical instability that has its roots in the Middle East could eventually restrict the flow of commerce within Schengen member states. The knock on effect would be to further depress the economic outlook for the Euro-Area.

The European nations have a duty of care to look after and provide shelter to refugees who are fleeing conflict. We simply could not allow those fleeing terror to remain on the beaches of Greece and Malta during the cold winter season.

However, accepting so many new arrivals is going to add an extra burden on the resources of the European countries who have offered a safe haven. This comes at a time when these resources are limited.

Furthermore, these refugees will in the medium term want to be fully integrated into society. This will include the new citizens wish to be economically active. The very idea of some estimated one million new arrivals being accepted into the Euro-Area will have the analysts at the ECB trying to ascertain very quickly what the likely impact will be on inflation and the job market.

This brings us back to the events of next week. The ECB is already under pressure to act on the economy and it is very likely that it will announce an expansion of the current quantitative easing programme.

Will the refugee crisis have an impact on ECB policy? Probably not at this stage. However if the crisis in Syria and Iraq is not resolved soon and if the world’s powers do not settle their differences and move ahead to alleviate the plight of these countries populations, then the potential for serious impact on the Euro-Area economy should not be ruled out.



EURUSD





The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.0690

Target 2: 1.0530

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0082

Daily control level: 1.0690





GBPUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.5175

Target 2: 1.5020

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0079

Daily control level: 1.5050




USDJPY




The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 123.10

Target 2: 122.00

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.55

Daily control level: 122.72



USDCHF




The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.0300

Target 2: 1.0170

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0070

Daily control level: 1.0140





USDCAD




The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.3360

Target 2: 1.3220

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0070

Daily control level: 1.3340




AUDUSD




The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.7290

Target 2: 0.7160

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0064

Daily control level: 0.7155



GOLD




The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1083.00

Target 2: 1059.00

Projected range in ATR’s: 12.27

Daily control level: 1075.00



OIL



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 44.50

Target 2: 41.60

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.45

Daily control level: 42.15



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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 30.11.2015






Earlier in November, the International Monetary Fund Managing Director, Christine Lagarde announced her backing for the inclusion of the Chinese Yuan into a select basket of international reserve currencies.

It is now expected that later today, the Chinese Yuan will be given official IMF approval that sees this currency obtain Special Drawing Rights status.

Gaining SDR status has been a long term goal for both the Chinese political leadership and the Peoples Bank of China.

If, as it is assumed, the Yuan is included as an IMF reserve currency, then it will join other global currency heavyweights in an exclusive club that includes, the US Dollar, the Euro, British Pound and Japanese Yen.

The acceptance into this prestigious club would indicate that the IMF has looked past the problems that China has faced over the summer.

Furthermore, it would appear that the currency devaluation that the PBOC initiated is not seen as an impediment for inclusion in the SDR basket.

Although it is not thought that China will make any implicit commitments not to embark on further competitive devaluations, there does appear that the Chinese leadership will stick to a path that is more focused on consumption and less that is export driven.

The inclusion of the Yuan into the IMF SDR basket is a symbolic win for the Chinese Government. However, this move by the IMF says a lot about the stance of the United States with respect to China.

With the Chinese economy continuing to grow, albeit, at a reduced rate, the United States has shown its preference to accept a country that now boasts the second largest economy within a club that was up till now controlled from Washington.

Any move by the United States to block the Yuan membership into the SDR basket would have meant China taking direction away from the influence of Western nations.

The Chinese Yuan membership into the SDR basket could be seen as the beginning of the end of US Dollar dominance and the only global reserve currency.

For sure, the US will have to loosen its grip on the IMF if it is going to accept the inclusion of the Yuan into the SDR basket.

However, this is not a simple changing of the guard that sees China replacing the United States as the all-powerful economic superpower.

The effects of the inclusion of the Yuan will be evolutionary rather than revolutionary as the Chinese Government moves further to transforming the country’s economy.

In the long term, if the Chinese economy does continue to growth and if regulations are improved and brought in line with acceptable international standards, then we may find the world in a few decades from now that sees the United States become one two or three (if we include the Euro) global reserve currencies.

In the short term, however, with both the European Central Bank and the Peoples Bank of China staying on a path of monetary easing and with the United States Federal Reserve about to begin a policy of tightening, the divergence of monetary policies should see the US Dollar maintain its global dominance.





EURUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.0665

Target 2: 1.0510

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0080

Daily control level: 1.0640




GBPUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.5115

Target 2: 1.4950

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0081

Daily control level: 1.5110




USDJPY




The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 123.30

Target 2: 122.25

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.55

Daily control level: 122.30




USDCHF




The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.0370

Target 2: 1.0230

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0073

Daily control level: 1.0250




USDCAD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.3435

Target 2: 1.3290

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0073

Daily control level: 1.3280




AUDUSD




The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 0.7250

Target 2: 0.7130

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0063

Daily control level: 0.7240




GOLD




The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1070.00

Target 2: 1044.00

Projected range in ATR’s: 12.96

Daily control level: 1075.00




OIL






The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 43.00

Target 2: 41.00

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.44

Daily control level: 42.15






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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 01.12.2015






As expected, the Chinese Yuan has been accepted by the International Fund into the basket of Special Drawing Rights currencies.

This means barring any disasters, the Yuan will join an exclusive club of currencies in October of 2016.

The head of the IMF, Christine Lagarde on a momentous day for China said of the Yuan’s acceptance as an SDR currency that this was “an important milestone in the integration of the Chinese economy into the global financial system”

The Chinese Yuan new found status as a key component of the IMF’s basket of reserve currencies not only brings with it a great deal of prestige but is also a vote of confidence in the manner that the Chinese Government and the Peoples Bank of China have managed the recent crisis that has hit the domestic economy.

The move by the IMF also signals and acceptance that the Peoples Bank of China is gaining increasing prestige and authority. The significance of the Yuan’s SDR acceptance, therefore, highlights that the Chinese Government has allowed a certain degree of power and control to be transferred from the ruling party to an independent, state organization.

Furthermore, from a geopolitical aspect, the Yuan’s acceptance into the IMF’s SDR basket is a clear and strong message that the Chinese economy matters. The Chinese Yuan in a very short space of time has now become one or the major global currencies.

Although we are some way from the USDCNY currency pair gaining the status of EURUSD for sure the time will come in the near future when CNY will become an important financial instrument.










EURUSD





The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.0641

Target 2: 1.0485

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0078

Daily control level: 1.0636








GBPUSD





The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.5137

Target 2: 1.4975

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0081

Daily control level: 1.4993



USDJPY




The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 123.70

Target 2: 122.50

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.59

Daily control level: 122.67




USDCHF




The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.0363

Target 2: 1.0211

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0076

Daily control level: 1.0225




USDCAD




The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.3435

Target 2: 1.3283

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0076

Daily control level: 1.3280




AUDUSD




The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.7295

Target 2: 0.7160

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0068

Daily control level: 0.7169




GOLD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1079.00

Target 2: 1051.00

Projected range in ATR’s: 13.84

Daily control level: 1075.00



OIL




The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 43.00

Target 2: 41.00

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.42

Daily control level: 43.66






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MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 02.12.2015






EURUSD







The intraday technical outlook

EURUSD has breached the top of downtrend channel yesterday, with the move, however proved to be unsuccessful later.

EURUSD needs to hold below 1.0610 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

The initial downside target is 1.0583, being today’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level. Should this level be reached successfully, a further extension towards 1.0535, which is 2nd pivot support of the pair.

If EURUSD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a retracement higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.0634, being  the pair’s 1st intermediate pivot resistance of today.  In case this level is reached, a prolonged extension to 1.0658, being the 2nd upside resistance level, could further take place.





GBPUSD







The intraday technical outlook

GBPUSD has bounced off the today’s pivot point this morning, retracing sharply from the yesterday’s highs.

GBPUSD needs to hold below 1.5085 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.

The initial downside target is 1.5001, being today’s Average True Range downside target of the pair. Should this level be reached, a further extension towards 1.4969, which is with the pair’s 3rd pivot support level of the day, could likely take place.

If GBPUSD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur, the target for today will be 1.5085, which is the pair’s Pivot Point of today.







USDJPY





The intraday technical outlook

USDJPY does not let go of its efforts to trade higher.

USDJPY needs to hold above the 122.95 level, being the intraday Pivot Point in order to hold the uptrend scenario.

The initial upside target is 123.43, being today’s Average True Range upside target of the pair. Should this level be reached, a further extension towards 123.55, which is with the pair’s 2nd pivot resistance level of the day, could likely take place.

If USDJPY fails to maintain the upward momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 122.92, which is the pair’s pivot point of today. In case this scenario will be activated, further extension to 122.56, being the pair’s 1st pivot support of today, could likely occur.




USDCHF




The intraday technical outlook

USDCHF has  breached the uptrend channel last night.

USDCHF needs to hold below 1.0270 line being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.

The initial downside target is 1.0222, being the first 1st pivot support of today. Following that the pair will likely to strive towards 1.0211 level.

If USDCHF fails to maintain downward momentum, a reversal higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the initial upside target for today is 1.0318. A further extension towards 1.0336 resistance, which is also approximately coincides with the Average True Range upside target of today, could follow next in this case.



USDCAD





The intraday technical outlook

USDCAD is striving to continue the upward move.

USDCAD needs to hold above 1.3354 line being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.

The initial upside aim is 1.3400, being the pair’s the pair’s 1st resistance level of today. should this aim be reached, it will open the way towards 1.3428, being the daily Average True Range upside target.

If USDCAD fails to maintain its upward momentum, a reversal and returning to trade lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.3332, which is the 1st intermediate pivot support level of the pair. A further extension towards of 1.3311 could then follow that move.



AUDUSD




The intraday technical outlook

AUDUSD continues sharply higher on the way up this morning.

AUDUSD needs to hold above 0.7292 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

The initial upside target for this afternoon will be 0.7388, being the upside projection level of the Daily Average True Range (ATR),

If AUDUSD fails to maintain the upside momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target is 0.7292, being the pair’s pivot point of today. Should this level be reached, the extension towards 0.7252, which is the pair’s 1st pivot support line of today, and also coincides with downside projection level of the Daily Average True Range (ATR), could likely occur next.





GOLD




The intraday technical outlook

Gold is retesting the top of the downtrend channel this morning.

The commodity needs to hold below 1068.83 level,  being the intraday Pivot Point  if the price action is to continue its downward move.

The initial downside target is 1063.20, being the commodity’s 1st pivot support level of today. Further extension towards 1057.49, could occur next following that.

If the metal fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur, the target for today is 1074.54, which is the commodity’s 1st pivot resistance of today.



OIL




The intraday technical outlook

Oil has bounced off the daily pivot point this morning, once again retesting the bottom of the daily upward trend channel.

The commodity needs to hold below 42.24 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

The initial downside target is 41.69, which is the commodity’s first support level of today. Should the trading break below this level, the next commodity’s target could be 41.20 level, being the 2nd pivot support of today.

If the commodity fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 42.49, being the commodity’s 1st intermediate pivot resistance level of today.








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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 03.12.2015



As the year comes to a close, the markets await two monumental decisions. It is thought by many and priced into the market that the European Central Banks, Governing Council have already agreed upon an expansion of their already large Quantitative easing program.

Whereas, across the North Atlantic in Washington, it is assumed that the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee has all but rubber-stamped a decision to increase interest rates for the first time in some 9 years.

Back in the day, a central bank’s decision to increase or decrease interest rates although an important event never carried such significance, or was written about in such detail. However, in an era of globalization and an interconnected international economy, a decision to tighten or ease monetary policy has become very big news indeed.

The decisions that will be taken over the next few weeks come after a deep recession that hit the global economy in 2008. Although stock markets around the world have recovered, anything other than a rally in the major indices would have expected with so much cheap and abundant money looking for somewhere to be parked.

The United States Federal Reserve and the Bank of England was quick to step in and boost their economic systems by embarking on substantial stimulus programmes. The European Central Bank, shackled by the German Government and Bundesbank only decided to initiate its own QE programme on January 22 of this year.

The ECB President, Mr. Mario Draghi announce a few months back that the central bank would do what it takes to bring back growth to the sluggish European economy. This was an admission that all was not well with the ECB’s current programme of stimulus. It is now hard to believe that less than 12 months since the last European QE programme was announced that the markets are already pricing in QE2.

The ECB is probably right to worry. It only needs to look to Japan. A country that has suffered a chronic and disastrous recession. The fear amongst the ECB governing council is that the plight of Japan could turn out to be the story of the Euro-Area.

There are of course differences between the Japan and the Euro-Zone. Japan is a much smaller economy that is heavily focussed on manufacturing, whereas the Euro-Zone brings together a much more diverse economy.

For a better comparison, we really need to look across to the United States. What becomes evident when one compares the US and Euro-Area is the how out of kilt the economic cycles are.

Although a low inflation environment does continue to persist in the USA, there are signs that this picture is beginning to change. Furthermore, over the past few months there has been real signs that the US jobs market is beginning to show positive gains.

By contrast, the Euro-Area has shown patchy employment growth and an anaemic inflation outlook. There is talk that the Euro-Area is some 24 to 36 months behind the United States. This is probably a correct assumption. However, the structural and political problems continue to persist in the Euro-Area.

Although QE2 should eventually push the Euro-Area towards recovery, the main beneficiaries will be the core nations such as Germany, Netherlands, Austria and France. For the periphery such as Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain the road back to recovery will continue to be a long and painful journey.











EURUSD





The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.0680

Target 2: 1.0540

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0072

Daily control level: 1.0636




GBPUSD




The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.5035

Target 2: 1.4865

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0087

Daily control level: 1.5125




USDJPY



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 123.80

Target 2: 122.65

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.60

Daily control level: 122.75





USDCHF




The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.0255

Target 2: 1.0100

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0074

Daily control level: 1.0306




USDCAD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.3415

Target 2: 1.3265

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0077

Daily control level: 1.3406




AUDUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.7375

Target 2: 0.7240

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0067

Daily control level: 0.7169



GOLD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1067.00

Target 2: 1040.00

Projected range in ATR’s: 14.13

Daily control level: 1075.00




OIL




The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 42.00

Target 2: 39.50

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.40

Daily control level: 42.60








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MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 04.12.2015










EURUSD



The intraday technical outlook

EURUSD has  retraced this morning, after the 450 pips move on Mario Draghi speech last afternoon.

EURUSD needs to hold above 1.0813 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

The initial upside target is 1.1037, being today’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level. Should this level be reached successfully, a further extension towards 1.1105, which is 1st pivot resistance of the pair.

If EURUSD fails to maintain the upward momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.0645, being  the pair’s 1st pivot support of today.  In case this level is reached, a prolonged extension to 1.0500, being the 2nd intermediate support and an important psychological level at the same time, could further take place.





GBPUSD



The intraday technical outlook

GBPUSD has surged higher yesterday amid the strengthening US Dollar.

GBPUSD needs to hold above 1.5067 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.

The initial upside target is 1.5231, which also approximately coincides with today’s Average True Range upside projection level of the pair. Should this level be reached, a further extension towards 1.5321, which is with the pair’s 2nd pivot resistance level, could likely take place.

If GBPUSD fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur, the target for today will be 1.5041, which is the pair’s today’s Average True Range downside target.





USDJPY





The intraday technical outlook

USDJPY is recovering yesterday’s losses this morning.

USDJPY needs to hold above the 122.81 level, being the intraday Pivot Point in order to hold the uptrend scenario.

The initial upside target is 123.33, which also approximately coincides with today’s Average True Range upside target of the pair. Should this level be reached, a further extension towards 123.70, which is with the pair’s 2nd intermediate pivot resistance level of the day, could likely take place.

If USDJPY fails to maintain the upward momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 122.44, which is the pair’s 1st intermediate pivot support point of today. In case this scenario will be activated, further extension to 121.89, being the pair’s 1st pivot support of today together with Daily Average True Range downside target, could likely occur.





USDCHF



The intraday technical outlook

USDCHF has declined sharply lower on the Mario Draghi speech yesterday.

USDCHF needs to hold below 1.0270 line being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.

The initial downside target is 0.9900, being the daily Average True Range downside projection. Should that level be reached, the pair will likely continue to trade towards 0.9779 next.

If USDCHF fails to maintain downward momentum, a reversal higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the initial upside target for today is 1.0170. A further extension towards 1.0290 resistance, which is  the Average True Range upside target of today, could follow next in this case.




USDCAD




The intraday technical outlook

USDCAD continues to range for the second week.

USDCAD needs to hold below 1.3348 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.

The initial downside aim is 1.3296, being the pair’s the pair’s 1st support of today. Should this level be reached, it will open the way towards 1.3240 level.

If USDCAD fails to maintain its downward momentum, a reversal and returning to trade higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.3403, which is today’s pivot resistance level of the pair. A further extension towards of 1.3431, being the daily Average True Range upside projection could then follow that move.





AUDUSD




The intraday technical outlook

AUDUSD was not much affected by the yesterday’s markets volatility.

AUDUSD needs to hold below 0.7327 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

The initial downside target for this afternoon will be 0.7271, being the of the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level. Following that, the pair could decline to 0.7248, being the 2nd pivot support line together with the bottom of the uptrend channel.

If AUDUSD fails to maintain the downside momentum, a retracement higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target is 0.7371, being the pair’s 1st pivot resistance level of today. Should this mark be reached, the extension towards 0.7409, being the of the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection, could likely occur next.



GOLD



The intraday technical outlook

Gold is retesting the top of the downtrend channel this morning.

The commodity needs to hold above 1057.79 level,  being the intraday Pivot Point  if the price action is to continue its upward move.

The initial upside target is 1069.40, being the commodity’s 1st pivot resistance level of today. Further extension towards 1076.75, being the upside projection level of the Daily Average True Range (ATR), could occur next following that.

If the metal fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur, the target for today is 1057.79, which is the commodity’s pivot point of today. The commodity price then could further stretch towards 1050.30 level, which also coincides with the downside projection level of the Daily Average True Range.




OIL





The intraday technical outlook

Oil is trading higher this morning after it reached a new three-month low on Wednesday.

The commodity needs to hold above 41.79 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

The initial upside target is 42.76, which is the commodity’s first support level of today. . Should the trading break above this level, the next commodity’s target could be 43.51, being the 2nd pivot resistance of today which also coincides with of the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level.

If the commodity fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 41.79, being the commodity’s   pivot point of today.

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MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 07.12.2015







EURUSD





The intraday technical outlook

EURUSD continue to retrace from the Thursday’s highs when Mario Draghi speech became a disappointment to investors.

EURUSD needs to hold above 1.0890 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

The initial downside target is 1.0768, being today’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level. Should this level be reached successfully, a further extension towards 1.0703, which is 2nd pivot support of the pair, could take place next.

If EURUSD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a retracement higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.0890, being  the pair’s pivot point of today.  In case this level is reached, a prolonged extension to 1.0973, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level, could further take place.





GBPUSD




The intraday technical outlook

GBPUSD is consolidating, after a strong upmove on Thursday.

GBPUSD needs to hold below 1.5000 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.

The initial downside target is 1.5032, being today’s 2nd pivot support level of the pair.   Should this level be reached, a further extension towards 1.5000, which is with today’s Average True Range downside projection level of the pair, could likely take place.

If GBPUSD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur, the target for today will be 1.5048, which is the pair’s 1st pivot resistance level of today.




USDJPY




The intraday technical outlook

USDJPY is recovering yesterday’s losses this morning.

USDJPY needs to hold above the 122.81 level, being the intraday Pivot Point in order to hold the uptrend scenario.

The initial upside target is 123.33, which also approximately coincides with today’s Average True Range upside target of the pair. Should this level be reached, a further extension towards 123.70, which is with the pair’s 2nd intermediate pivot resistance level of the day, could likely take place.

If USDJPY fails to maintain the upward momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 122.44, which is the pair’s pivot point of today. In case this scenario will be activated, further extension to 122.53, being the pair’s 1st pivot support of today together with Daily Average True Range downside target, could likely occur.




USDCHF




The intraday technical outlook

USDCHF is retesting 1.0030 resistance line, looking to recover the losses the pair made last Thursday.

USDCHF needs to hold above 1.09969 line being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.

The initial upside target is 1.0070, being the daily Average True Range upside projection. Should that level be reached, the pair could continue trading towards 1.0121 intermediate resistance next.

If USDCHF fails to maintain upward momentum, a reversal lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the initial downside target for today will be 0.9970, being the pivot point of today. A further extension towards 0.9905 resistance, which is the pair’s 1st pivot support level, could follow next in this case.



USDCAD




The intraday technical outlook

USDCAD is trading higher this morning, after the set of dissapointing Canadian economic data was published last Friday.

USDCAD needs to hold above 1.3364 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.

The initial upside aim is 1.3450, being the Average True Range upside projection of today. Should this level be reached, it will open the way towards 1.3510, being the pair’s 3rd pivot resistance level of today.

If USDCAD fails to maintain its upward momentum, a reversal and returning to trade lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.3363, which is today’s pivot point of the pair. A further extension towards of 1.3288, being the daily Average True Range downside projection could follow that move then.



AUDUSD





The intraday technical outlook

AUDUSD declined lower this morning.

AUDUSD needs to hold below 0.7331 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

The initial downside target for this afternoon will be 0.7267, being the of the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level. Following that, the pair could decline to 0.7251, being the 2nd intermediate pivot support line and coinciding with the bottom of the uptrend channel.

If AUDUSD fails to maintain the downside momentum, a retracement higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target is 0.7384, being the pair’s 1st pivot resistance level of today. Should this mark be reached, the extension towards 0.7409, being the of the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection, could likely occur next.




GOLD





The intraday technical outlook

Gold was among the top performers last Friday, as investors’ uncertainty regarding the forex main currency grows.

The commodity needs to hold above 1077.43 level,  being the intraday Pivot Point  if the price action is to continue its upward move.

The initial upside target is 1096.84, which is also approximately coincides with the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level. Should this target be reached, a move towards 1107.88, being the pair’s second resistance point of today could likely take place next.

If the metal fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur, the target for today is 1070.91, which is the commodity’s downside projection level of the Daily Average True Range.




OIL




The intraday technical outlook

Oil continues to trade lower this morning as no action to reduce the oil production was the outcome of the Friday’s OPEC meeting.

The commodity needs to hold above 41.79 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

The initial downside target is 39.01, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level.

If the commodity fails to maintain the downside momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 41.93, being the commodity’s Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today.







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MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 08.12.2015












EURUSD




The intraday technical outlook

EURUSD is ranging, trying to define a further direction after last Thursday’s move.

EURUSD needs to break below 1.0838 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

The initial downside target is 1.0789, which is 1st pivot support of the pair. Should this level be reached successfully, a further extension towards 1.0731, being today’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level, could take place next.

If EURUSD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a retracement higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.0939, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level.






GBPUSD




The intraday technical outlook

GBPUSD is heading lower after much lower than expected UK Manufacturing Production figure was published this morning.

GBPUSD needs to hold below 1.5070 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.

The initial downside target is 1.4953, being today’s 3rd pivot support level, which also coincides with Daily Average True Range downside projection level of the pair.

If GBPUSD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur, the target for today will be 1.5070, which is the pair’s pivot point of today.




USDJPY




The intraday technical outlook

USDJPY is retracing this morning.

USDJPY needs to break above the 123.32 level, being the intraday Pivot Point in order to hold the uptrend scenario.

The initial upside target is 123.32, which is the pivot point of today. Should this level be reached, a further extension towards 123.50, being the pair’s 1st pivot resistance level of the day, could likely take place.

If USDJPY fails to maintain the upward momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 122.83, which is the pair’s 3rd pivot support level of today. In case this scenario will be activated, further extension to 122.72, being the pair’s Daily Average True Range downside target, could likely occur.





USDCHF




The intraday technical outlook

USDCHF is consolidating after last Thursday’s decline.

USDCHF needs to breach above 1.0000 line being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.

The initial upside target is 1.0033, being the 1st pivot resistance of today. Should that level be reached, the pair could continue trading towards 1.0067, being the 2nd resistance level.

If USDCHF fails to maintain upward momentum, a reversal lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the initial downside target for today will be 0.9927, being the 1st pivot support of today. A further extension towards 0.9900 level, which is the pair’s daily Average True Range downside projection level, could follow next in this case.





USDCAD






The intraday technical outlook

USDCAD has reached the eleven-year high this morning.

USDCAD needs to hold above 1.3461 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.

The initial upside aim is 1.3584, being the Average True Range upside projection of today. Should this level be reached, it will open the way towards 1.3620, being the pair’s 2nd pivot resistance level of today.

If USDCAD fails to maintain its upward momentum, a reversal and returning to trade lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.3461, which is today’s pivot point of the pair. A further extension towards of 1.3412, being the daily Average True Range downside projection could follow that move then.







AUDUSD






The intraday technical outlook

AUDUSD has breached the uptrend channel this morning.

AUDUSD needs to hold below 0.7287 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

The initial downside target for this afternoon will be 0.7190, being the of the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level. Following that, the pair could decline to 0.7149, being the 3rd pivot support line of today.

If AUDUSD fails to maintain the downside momentum, a retracement higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target is 0.7287, being the pair’s pivot point level of today.







GOLD






The intraday technical outlook

Gold is retracing from the last Friday’s highs.

The commodity needs to hold below 1074.64 level,  being the intraday Pivot Point  if the price action is to continue its downward move.

The initial downside target is 1062.82, which is the 1st pivot support of today. Should this target be reached, a move towards 1054.62, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level, could likely take place next.

If the metal fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur, the target for today is 1085.72, which is the commodity’s upside projection level of the Daily Average True Range.





OIL




The intraday technical outlook

Oil has declined to a six-year low this morning.

The commodity needs to hold below 39.28 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

The initial downside target is 37.90, being the 1st pivot support level of today. Should this aim achieved successfully, the price could extend towards 37.30, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level.

If the commodity fails to maintain the downside momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 40.28, being the commodity’s Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today.










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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 09.12.2015







The European Central Banks decisions not to deliver on its promise of QE2 has created indecision in the minds of traders.

Following the ECB’s lack of action, the market is now divided on the outcome of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s rate decision that takes place today.

However, some websites are reporting that the forecast is that the Official Cash Rate will be cut by 25 basis points from 2.75% to 2.50%.

A rate cut at this stage although significant, a failure by the RBNZ to follow through at this juncture would not put this story to bed.

What is of equal importance is the wording of the forward guidance that is made available to the market.

A dovish statement by the RBNZ will reinforce the negative bias for NZDUSD. Furthermore, the apparent policy divergence between the RNBZ and the United States Federal Reserve could further weaken the Kiwi over the short to medium term.

From a technical perspective, there is a concern within the RBNZ that the New Zealand Dollar has shown recent signs of strength. The price action having put a bottom in place at the 0.6120 which coincides with an area of monthly Fibonacci support around the 61.8% retracement level that was generated from March 2009 low and August 2011 high.

The move off the 61.8% Fibonacci level was sufficient enough to push NZDUSD through upward resistance as the price action broke through the upper slope of a downward channel that began in July 2014.

With the price action having re-broken above the 100 periods daily moving average as NZDUSD attempts to put in place a higher high, higher low, higher high formation on the daily chart, the fear within the RBNZ is that with the Kiwi no perilously close to the 200 periods daily moving average.

The opportunity now presents itself for a reinjection of some bearish news that will reinforce the dovish argument for NZDUSD and allow for this currency to once again depreciate, thus helping these country exporters to maintain their competitive advantage.

In terms of timing and levels, we should see a pickup in downside momentum post the FOMC meeting on December 16. That is unless we get a dovish surprise from the Federal Reserve Chairwoman, Janet Yellen.

The key levels would be a bounce off the 200 SMA around the 0.6700 / 0.6750 area and confirmation of the bearish bias will occur if we see a breach of the most recent daily swing low at the 0.6425 and then followed by a break of the 0.6400 big figure.

A more aggressive strategy would be to follow the downside momentum as the price action breaks key 4 and 1-hour support levels.







EURUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.0990

Target 2: 1.0790

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0103

Daily control level: 1.0950





GBPUSD





The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.5105

Target 2: 1.4910

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0101

Daily control level: 1.5160





USDJPY




The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 123.55

Target 2: 122.30

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.62

Daily control level: 123.50





USDCHF





The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.0020

Target 2: 0.9825

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0100

Daily control level: 1.0035





USDCAD




The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.3675

Target 2: 1.3495

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0091

Daily control level: 1.3315




AUDUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 0.7285

Target 2: 0.7140

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0072

Daily control level: 0.7385




GOLD





The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1089.00

Target 2: 1060.00

Projected range in ATR’s: 14.94

Daily control level: 1066.00




OIL






The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 40.00

Target 2: 37.00

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.56

Daily control level: 42.85









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MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 10.12.2015












EURUSD




The intraday technical outlook

EURUSD is retracing from 10-day high.

EURUSD needs to hold above 1.0981 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

The initial upside target is 1.1084, which is 1st pivot resistance of the pair. Should this mark be reached successfully, a further extension towards 1.1130 being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level, could be observed further.

If EURUSD fails to maintain the upward momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.0918, being the pair’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level. In case this scenario will be activated, the pair could prolong its move to 0.0817 support level.




GBPUSD




The intraday technical outlook

GBPUSD has reached a two-week high ahead of BOE Monetary Policy Statement this afternoon.

GBPUSD needs to hold above 1.5124 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.

The initial upside target is 1.5245, being today’s 1st pivot resistance level. Should this target to be reached, the extend to 1.5281, which is the Daily Average True Range upside projection could further take place.

If GBPUSD fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur, the target for today will be 1.5069, which is the pair’s the Daily Average True Range downside aim.




USDJPY




The intraday technical outlook

USDJPY has declined lower as investors interest in the Japanese Yen is increasing.

USDJPY needs to hold below the 121.86 level, being the intraday Pivot Point in order to hold the downtrend scenario.

The initial downside target is 120.68, which is the 1st pivot support and also coincides the pair’s Daily Average True Range downside target. Should this level be reached, a further extension towards 119.87, could likely take place.

If USDJPY fails to maintain the downward momentum, a retracement higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 122.62, which is the pair’s 1st pivot resistance level of today. In case this scenario will be activated, further extension to 123.81, being the pair’s 2nd resistance level of today, could occur.






USDCHF






The intraday technical outlook

USDCHF has breached the downtrend channel this morning.

USDCHF needs to hold below 0.9864 line being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.

The initial downside target is 0.9784, being the 1st pivot support of today. Should that level be reached, the pair could continue trading towards 0.9725, being the daily Average True Range downside projection level.

If USDCHF fails to maintain downward momentum, a reversal higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the initial upside target for today will be 0.9933, being the Average True Range upside projection of today.







USDCAD




The intraday technical outlook

USDCAD has bounced off the top of the uptrend channel this morning.

USDCAD needs to hold below 1.3570 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.

The initial downside aim is 1.3486, being the Average True Range downside projection of today. Should this mark be reached, it will open the way towards 1.3418, being the pair’s 3rd pivot support level of today.

If USDCAD fails to maintain its downward momentum, a reversal and returning to trade higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.3625, which is the pair’s 1st pivot resistance level of today. Following that, the pair could stretch to 1.3670, being the daily Average True Range upside projection.







AUDUSD




The intraday technical outlook

AUDUSD is trying to return to trade within the limits of the recently breached uptrend channel.

AUDUSD needs to hold below 0.7215 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

The initial upside target for this afternoon will be 0.7332, being the 3rd pivot resistance level of today. Further extend to the previous high of 0.7385 could likely to be seen next following that.

If AUDUSD fails to maintain the upside momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target is 0.7215, being the pair’s pivot point of today.





GOLD




The intraday technical outlook

Gold continue ranging in indecision after it surged higher last Friday.

The commodity needs to hold above 1075.49 level,  being the intraday Pivot Point  if the price action is to continue its upward move.

The initial downside target is 1087.00, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level.

If the metal fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur, the target for today is 1066.01, which is the 1st support level of the pair for today. Following that, a move lower to 1056.60, being the commodity’s downside projection level of the Daily Average True Range, could take place next.





OIL





The intraday technical outlook

Oil is consolidating at the six-year this morning, with the likely attempt to retest these limits.

The commodity needs to hold below 38.73 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

The initial downside target is 37.51, being the 1st pivot support level of today. Should this aim achieved successfully, the price could extend towards 36.92, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level.

If the commodity fails to maintain the downside momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 40.12, being the commodity’s Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today.











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MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 11.12.2015







EURUSD




The intraday technical outlook

EURUSD is trading within upward trending channel amid the US Dollar weakness ahead of the FOMC meeting next week.

EURUSD needs to hold above 1.0927 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

The initial upside target is 1.1011, which is 1st pivot resistance of the pair. Should this mark be reached successfully, a further extension towards 1.1047 being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level, could be observed further.

If EURUSD fails to maintain the upward momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.0901, being the pair’s 1st suport level of today. In case this scenario will be activated, the pair could prolong its move to 0.0831, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level.




GBPUSD




The intraday technical outlook

GBPUSD has bounced off the top of the upward trending channel this morning.

GBPUSD needs to hold above 1.5156 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.

The initial upside target is 1.5203, being today’s 1st pivot resistance level. Should this target to be reached, the extend to 1.5261, which is the Daily Average True Range upside projection could take place next.

If GBPUSD fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur, the target for today will be 1.5088, which is the pair’s 2nd intermediate support of today. Following that, the price could move to 1.5049, being the Daily Average True Range downside aim.




USDJPY




The intraday technical outlook

USDJPY has bounced off the upper limit of the average Daily Average True Range.

USDJPY needs to break below the 121.55 level, being the intraday Pivot Point in order to hold the downtrend scenario.

The initial downside target is 121.23, which is the 1st pivot support line of today. Should this level be reached, a further extension towards 120.78, being the pair’s Daily Average True Range downside target, could likely take place next.

If USDJPY fails to maintain the downward momentum, a retracement higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 122.31.  In case this scenario will be activated, further extension to 122.48, being the pair’s 3rd resistance level of today, could occur.





USDCHF




The intraday technical outlook

USDCHF is consolidating above the downward trending channel, which the pair breached yesterday.

USDCHF needs to hold below 0.9870 line being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.

The initial downside target is 0.9810, being the 2nd intermediate pivot support of today. Should that level be reached, the pair could continue trading towards 0.9767, being the daily Average True Range downside projection level.

If USDCHF fails to maintain downward momentum, a reversal higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the initial upside target for today will be 0.9975, being the Average True Range upside projection of today.





USDCAD





The intraday technical outlook

USDCAD has breached the uptrend channel this morning.

USDCAD needs to hold above 1.3597 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.

The initial upside aim is 1.3716, being the Average True Range upside projection of today. Should this mark be reached, it will open the way towards 1.3772, being the pair’s 3rd pivot resistance level of today.

If USDCAD fails to maintain its upward momentum, a reversal and returning to trade lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.3597, which is the pair’s pivot point of today. Following that, the pair could stretch to 1.3530, being the daily Average True Range downside projection.




AUDUSD




The intraday technical outlook

AUDUSD has reconfirmed the breach of the uptrend channel this morning.

AUDUSD needs to hold below 0.7278 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

The initial downside target for this afternoon will be 0.7204, being the Average True Range upside projection of today. Further extend to the previous high of 0.7165 could likely to be seen following that.

If AUDUSD fails to maintain the upside momentum, a retracement higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target is 0.7278, being the pair’s pivot point of today.





GOLD




The intraday technical outlook

Gold declined lower this morning, bouncing off the newly formed downtrend channel.

The commodity needs to hold below 1072.25 level,  being the intraday Pivot Point  if the price action is to continue its downward move.

The initial downside target is 1056.31, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level.

If the metal fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur, the target for today is 1072.25, which is the pivot point of the pair for today. Following that, a move higher to 1075.27, being the commodity’s 1st pivot resistance point and coinciding with the top of the downward trend channel, could occur next.




OIL






The intraday technical outlook

Oil has reached a new six-year low this morning.

The commodity needs to hold below 38.11 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

The initial downside target is 36.92, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level.

If the commodity fails to maintain the downside momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 38.50, being the commodity’s 1st pivot resistance level of today






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MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 14.12.2015














EURUSD




The intraday technical outlook

EURUSD has created a new lower high at the end of the last trading session.

EURUSD needs to hold below 1.0978 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

The initial downside target is 1.0926, which is 1st pivot support of the pair. Should this mark be reached successfully, a further extension towards 1.0873 being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level, could be observed further.

If EURUSD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.1030, being the pair’s 1st resistance level of today. In case this scenario will be activated, the pair could prolong its move to 0.1095, which is the Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today.





GBPUSD




The intraday technical outlook

GBPUSD has bounced off the top of the daily uptrend channel this morning.

GBPUSD needs to hold below 1.5185 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.

The initial downside target is 1.5122, being today’s 1st pivot support together with the Daily Average True Range upside projection level.  Should this target to be reached, the extend to 1.5071, which is today’s 2nd pivot support, could take place next.

If GBPUSD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur, the target for today will be 1.5215 which is the pair’s 1st intermediate resistance of today, and also coincides with the top of the downward trend channel. Following that, the price could move to 1.5246, being the 1st pivot resistance level of today.







USDJPY






The intraday technical outlook

USDJPY has bounced off the upper limit of the average Daily Average True Range.

USDJPY needs to break above the 121.25 level, being the intraday Pivot Point in order to hold the uptrend scenario.

The initial upside target is 121.90, which  being the pair’s Daily Average True Range upside target. Should this level be reached, a further extension towards 122.90, is the 2nd pivot resistance line, could likely take place next.

If USDJPY fails to maintain the upward momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 120.21, which is the Daily Average True Range downside target of the pair.  In case this scenario will be activated, further extension to 119.60, being the pair’s 2nd support level of today, could occur next.







USDCHF





The intraday technical outlook

USDCHF is consolidating above the downward trending channel, which the pair breached last Thursday.

USDCHF needs to hold below 0.9841 line being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.

The initial downside target is 0.9784, being the 1st pivot support of today. Should that level be reached, the pair could continue trading towards 0.9726 being the daily Average True Range downside projection level.

If USDCHF fails to maintain downward momentum, a reversal higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the initial upside target for today will be 0.9944, being the Average True Range upside projection of today.





USDCAD





The intraday technical outlook

USDCAD has breached the uptrend channel this morning.

USDCAD needs to hold above 1.3597 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.

The initial upside aim is 1.3716, being the Average True Range upside projection of today. Should this mark be reached, it will open the way towards 1.3772, being the pair’s 3rd pivot resistance level of today.

If USDCAD fails to maintain its upward momentum, a reversal and returning to trade lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.3597, which is the pair’s pivot point of today. Following that, the pair could stretch to 1.3530, being the daily Average True Range downside projection.






AUDUSD





The intraday technical outlook

AUDUSD has breached the recently formed uptrend channel this morning.

AUDUSD needs to hold above 0.7215 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

The initial upside target for this afternoon will be 0.7279, being the Average True Range upside projection of today. Further extend to the previous high of 0.7317, being the 2nd resistance level of today could likely to be seen following.

If AUDUSD fails to maintain the upside momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target is 0.7149, being the pair’s 1st support level of today.







GOLD






The intraday technical outlook

Gold has bounced off the top of the newly created downtrend channel this morning.

The commodity needs to hold below 1071.79 level,  being the intraday Pivot Point  if the price action is to continue the downward move.

The initial downside target is 1057.59, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level.

If the metal fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur, the target for today is 1076.76, which is the 1st intermediate pivot point of the pair for today and also coinciding with the top of the downward trend channel. Following that, a move higher to 1081.72, being the commodity’s 1st pivot resistance level, could occur next.






OIL




The intraday technical outlook

Oil declines to the new lows this morning, the levels last seen since 2009.

The commodity needs to hold below 37.15 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

The initial downside target is 36.06, which is the 1st pivot support level of today. Should that target be reached, a following move to 35.42, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level, could follow next.

If the commodity fails to maintain the downside momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 37.79, being the commodity’s 1st pivot resistance level of today.







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MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 15.12.2015











EURUSD





The intraday technical outlook

EURUSD is slowing down ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC statement

EURUSD needs to hold above 1.0994 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

The initial upside target is 1.1103, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level. Should this mark be reached successfully, a further extension towards 1.1146, which is 3rd pivot resistance of the pair, could be observed further.

If EURUSD fails to maintain the upward momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.0940, being the pair’s 1st support level of today and also coinciding with the bottom of the uptrend channel. In case this scenario will be activated, the pair could prolong its move to 0.0881, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level.






GBPUSD




The intraday technical outlook

GBPUSD has bounced off the top of the daily uptrend channel yesterday, continuing with a move lower this morning.

GBPUSD needs to hold below 1.5158 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.

The initial downside target is 1.5087, being today’s 1st pivot support.  Should this target to be reached, the extend to 1.5029, which is today’s 2nd pivot support  together with the Daily Average True Range downside projection level, could take place next.

If GBPUSD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur, the target for today will be 1.5210 which is the pair’s 1st resistance of today, and also coincides with the top of the downward trend channel. Following that, the price could move to 1.5251, being the Daily Average True Range upside projection level of today.





USDJPY






The intraday technical outlook

USDJPY is consolidating at six-week low this morning.

USDJPY needs to hold above the 121.25 level, being the intraday Pivot Point in order to continue the uptrend scenario.

The initial upside target is 121.47, which is the pair’s 1st resistance level of today. Should this level be reached, a further extension towards 121.86, being the pair’s Daily Average True Range upside target and also 2nd pivot resistance line, could likely take place next.

If USDJPY fails to maintain the upward momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 120.45, which is the Daily Average True Range downside projection of the pair.  In case this scenario will be activated, further extension to 119.89, being the pair’s 2nd support level of today, could occur next.







USDCHF





The intraday technical outlook

USDCHF continue to consolidate, after it breached the downward channel last week.

USDCHF needs to hold above 0.9841 line being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.

The initial upside target is 0.9885, being the 1st pivot resistance of today. Should that level be reached, the pair could continue trading towards 0.9950 being the daily Average True Range upside projection level of today.

If USDCHF fails to maintain upward momentum, a reversal lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the initial downside target for today will be 0.9736, being the Average True Range downside projection of today.






USDCAD






The intraday technical outlook

USDCAD is retesting to return trading within the limits of the uptrend channel this morning.

USDCAD needs to hold below 1.3729 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.

The initial downside aim is 1.3716, being the Average True Range downside projection of today. Should this mark be reached, it will open the way towards 1.3573, being the pair’s 3rd pivot support level of today.

If USDCAD fails to maintain its downward momentum, a reversal and returning to trade higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.3782, which is the pair’s 1st pivot resistance of today and also coincides with the pair’s eleven-year high. Following that, the pair could stretch to 1.3831, being the daily Average True Range upside projection.







AUDUSD






The intraday technical outlook

AUDUSD is returning to retest the top of the recently formed downtrend channel.

AUDUSD needs to hold above 0.7226level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

The initial upside target for this afternoon will be 0.7287, being the 1st resistance level of today. An additional extend to 0.7323, the  Average True Range upside projection of today, could likely to be seen following.

If AUDUSD fails to maintain the upside momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target is 0.7176, being the pair’s 1st support level of today, which also approximately coincides with the Average True Range downside projection level.





GOLD






The intraday technical outlook

Gold has shot higher this morning, after the metal once again reached two-week low in the overnight trade.

The commodity needs to hold above 1065.28 level,  being the intraday Pivot Point  if the price action is to continue the upward move.

The initial upside target is 1072.00, which is the pairs 1st pivot resistance level of today. Should this aim be reached, Gold could extend towards 1075.45, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level.

If the metal fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur, the target for today is 1053.20, which is the 1st  pivot support of the pair for today. Following that, a move lower to 1046.49, being the commodity’s 2nd support level, could occur next.








OIL






The intraday technical outlook

Oil is recovering this morning after it reached new 2009 lows during the previous trading session.

The commodity needs to hold above 37.03 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

The initial upside target is 38.92, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level.  Should that target be reached, a move to 40.03, being the 3rd pivot resistance level could follow next.

If the commodity fails to maintain the downside momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 37.03, being the commodity’s  pivot point of today.





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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 16.12.2015





The most momentous United States interest rate decision in almost a decade is less than 12 hours away.

It can be said with some justification that the Federal Reserve has communicated poorly its intentions to the markets and somewhat painted itself into a corner.

It would now be an extraordinary reversal if the FOMC does not increase the Fed Funds rate this evening.

Central Banks usually hike interest rates to cool off an overheating economy. However, although the US economy is showing positive signs the recovery has been patchy and does not encompass the whole country.

Inflation is not really a problem at the moment. In fact, plunging commodity prices as seen by the continued fall in the value of crude oil over the past week could actually hold back the possibility of the Federal Reserve’s 2% inflation target being met.

We can add to this cocktail, the prospect of deflation being imported into the US economy. This is due to the current easing stance of both the Peoples Bank of China and the European Central Bank.

For all of these reasons, one can understand why many analysts and even some members of the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee are questioning the merits of increasing interest rates today.

The foreign exchange markets tell their own story with its recent appreciation of EURUSD coming to an abrupt halt.

The markets have had time to digest the disappointing lack of action taken by the European Central Bank and its failure to increase as promised the stimulus to the Euro-Area’s flagging economy.

With currency traders having worked through last ECB announcement, the apparent topping formation in EURUSD would appear to be a sign that the markets are assuming that we will see an increase in the Fed Funds interest rate by 25 basis points.

A Fed Funds rate increase will only tell us half the story as there is real uncertainty over what shape the trajectory of future interest rate increases will look like in 2016.

Therefore, what is important to glean from today’s statement is the pace of future interest rate increases.

A dovish hike would see at the most two further rate hikes during 2016. Whereas a hawkish surprise could see as many as four rate hikes being announced by the FOMC during the course of next year.

I doubt very much that the Federal Reserve Chairwoman, Mrs. Janet Yellen will be so kind to give the markets exact numbers tomorrow on the amount and frequency of interest rate decisions for 2016. However, I would hope that the tone of the announcement to give us some strong clues.

I expect that this evening, the FOMC will give us a dovish hike. The reason for this is that the Federal Reserve is scared that it would be blamed that a hawkish surprise would derail the markets.

An over hawkish message will see the US Dollar race higher as both bonds and equities will get crushed.

The logical policy for the FOMC to take would raise interest rates a little now and then commit to tightening further as and when conditions allow it to do so.















EURUSD




The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.1050

Target 2: 1.0810

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0119

Daily control level: 1.1060



GBPUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.5155

Target 2: 1.4920

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0116

Daily control level: 1.5185




USDJPY



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 122.55

Target 2: 120.75

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.91

Daily control level: 120.55




USDCHF



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.0020

Target 2: 0.9800

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0111

Daily control level: 0.9795




USDCAD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.3835

Target 2: 1.3630

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0102

Daily control level: 1.3780




AUDUSD




The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 0.7275

Target 2: 0.7100

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0086

Daily control level: 0.7285




GOLD




The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1077.00

Target 2: 1044.00

Projected range in ATR’s: 16.12

Daily control level: 1079.50




OIL




The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 39.00

Target 2: 36.00

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.61

Daily control level: 37.25








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