Daily Technical Analysis

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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 03.11.2015



Since the lows of August, the Exxon Mobil Corporation has seen its stock value rally off the lows it touched back in the summer.

In August, Exxon Mobil traded down to the US$ 66.50 area, however, this morning after what was a strong Monday trading, has seen this company’s stock value move above US$ 85.00.

The Exxon Mobil Corporation is public traded on the New York Stock Exchange as is a key component of the Dow 30.

Being the fifth largest company in terms of revenue and the third largest company in terms of market capitalization, the Exxon Mobil Corporation is seen as an important bellwether on the health of the United States equity market, the petrol chemicals sector and the Crude Oil market.

Following Friday’s better than expected third quarter earnings release the value of Exxon Mobil’s share price has experienced a large increase.

Furthermore, the rally that Exxon Mobil has experienced since August has seen the price action from a technical aspect put in place certain key indications which could imply that a significant low has created for the price of this stock.

As Exxon Mobil is such a dominant player in the petroleum sector, a reversal of sentiment from bearish to bullish could also indicate that the downtrend in the value of both WTI and Brent may be coming to an end.

The price action during the month of October has been significant in that Exxon Mobil has seen its share price accelerate higher as if it was a hot knife through butter as it slashed through is 50 and 100-period simple moving averages.

Of greater significance as that the price action has now broken through the key 200 periods daily moving average. As the 200-period moving average is used as an indicator by longer term investors to ascertain if an instrument is in bull or bear territory the breach of this average during yesterday’s trading would have been noted with interest.

Of further significance was that the share price of Exxon mobile was able to breach and close above the downtrend line that has defined the bearish trend that began back in July of 2014.

Finally, the share price of Exxon Mobil has been able to break above all key Fibonacci levels with little sign of resistance. A continuation of the move higher could see the May 5 high of US$ 90.07 being tested.

A breach of the US$90.07 level is important as it would turn the very long term weekly cycle from a technical perspective from down to up.

If we switch to a chart of OILUSD, the trend continues to point in a downward direction. However, the repeated breaches of the downtrend line could potentially indicate that base is being formed.

However, confirmation is required and this will be given if OILUSD can trade above its 200 periods daily SMA and the prior swing high of October 8 at the US$ 51.30 level.
We also have a similar scenario for Brent. In this case, there does seem to be a concerted effort to stay above the now broken downtrend line.

To end, the price action for Exxon Mobil is giving us clues on the future direction of price action for both WTI and Brent. However, we do need to see some follow-through in terms of price action confirmation before we can say with any certainty that a solid floor has been put in place







EURUSD





The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.1105

Target 2: 1.0920

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0096

Daily control level: 1.1075




GBPUSD




The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.5495

Target 2: 1.5325

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0087

Daily control level: 1.5240



USDJPY






The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 121.55

Target 2: 119.95

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.81

Daily control level: 120.25



USDCHF




The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 0.9935

Target 2: 0.9780

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0079

Daily control level: 0.9890




USDCAD






The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.3200

Target 2: 1.2985

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0110

Daily control level: 1.3115



AUDUSD






The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.7215

Target 2: 0.7065

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0077

Daily control level: 0.7100





GOLD






The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1146.00

Target 2: 1120.00

Projected range in ATR’s: 13.31

Daily control level: 1150.00





OIL





The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 48.00

Target 2: 45.00

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.42

Daily control level: 45.85







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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 04.11.2015




Yesterday in Frankfurt during an event that celebrated the European Cultural Day, the European Central Bank President, Mr. Mario Draghi gave the clearest indication yet that he and his colleagues on the Governing Council could launch an expanded stimulus programme as early as next month.

ECB President Draghi told reporters “Even though domestic demand remains resilient, concerns over growth prospects in emerging markets and other external factors are creating downside risks to the outlook for growth and inflation.”

Draghi went on to add “In this context, the degree of monetary policy accommodation will need to be re-examined at the Governing Council’s December meeting.”

“The Governing Council is willing and able to act by using all the instruments available within its mandate if warranted in order to maintain an appropriate degree of monetary accommodation.”

His comments at what was meant to be a fairly low-key event is a clear sign that the European Central Bank is going to act in December.

The question of timing is of course as always key. As had happened in September, the next key meeting for the ECB will take place before the United States Federal Reserve announces their next move.

With the possibility of the FOMC deciding in increased rates in December, is it really necessary for the ECB to act so soon?

If the Fed hikes, this will be a stimulus in itself and have a greater effect than the ECB expanding its own QE programme.

However, Mario Draghi does not have the luxury that allows him to second guess the outcome of the FOMC meeting. The ECB may, therefore, move anyway and increase stimulus independently of any FOMC decision.

The ECB indicated that they have many options to explore and implement.

These include:

            A cut in the deposit rate.
             A faster pace of asset purchases.
             Expand what can be purchased.

All these measures will, of course, have the effect of weakening the euro which will help support growth by expanding exports. Furthermore, the cheaper Euro will also act as a tool that increases inflation through imports.






EURUSD






The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.1045

Target 2: 1.0865

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0094

Daily control level: 1.0500





GBPUSD






The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.5500

Target 2: 1.5335

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0086

Daily control level: 1.5445




USDJPY




The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 121.80

Target 2: 120.30

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.79

Daily control level: 120.60





USDCHF





The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.9950

Target 2: 0.9850

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0079

Daily control level: 0.9835




USDCAD




The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.3170

Target 2: 1.2950

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0111

Daily control level: 1.3165




AUDUSD




The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.7255

Target 2: 0.7115

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0073

Daily control level: 0.7110




GOLD






The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1131.00

Target 2: 1103.00

Projected range in ATR’s: 13.78

Daily control level: 1138.55





OIL





The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 49.75

Target 2: 46.80

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.47

Daily control level: 46.65







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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 05.11.2015




During yesterday’s afternoon testimony to the House Financial Services Committee in Washington D.C, the Federal Reserve chairwoman laid out the case for an increase in the Federal Funds rate taking place on December 15-16.

In an interesting debate, Mr. Brad Sherman who is affiliated to the Democratic Party and a member of the United States House of Representatives for the state of California championed the need for delaying a rate increase until the Spring of 2016.

However, the line Mr. Sherman took was a somewhat unorthodox line as he called on the guidance of a higher authority in the form of God.

Sherman said. “God’s plan is that things rise in the spring, and so if you want to be good with the Almighty, you might want to delay until May.”

Yellen’s, however, ignored for calls of divine intervention by saying. “What the committee has been expecting is that the economy will continue to grow at a pace that is sufficient to generate further improvements in the labour market and to return inflation to our 2% percent target over the medium term. If the incoming information supports that expectation then our statement indicates that December would be a live possibility”.

Although Mr. Sherman’s comments might seem as an interesting sideshow to the real debate that is now taking place over the timing of the first interest-rate increase, the comments expressed by this politician does in some way highlight the divisions in opinion that is currently gripping the financial markets and to some extent the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee.

Janet Yellen is, of course, trying to prepare the ground for a rate increase. In itself, a more hawkish tone that was adopted yesterday will cushion the blow when rates do eventually increase.

The market is currently pricing a 50 / 50 coin toss chance that the FOMC will increase rates in December. However, we do have a lot a data to come before the committee members have to make their decision.

If we see an improvement in data then the possibility of a rate increase will be enhanced. We will  get out first clues tomorrow afternoon when the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the latest job numbers with the Non-Farm Payrolls and Average Hourly Earnings as always being of paramount importance.









EURUSD





The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.0960

Target 2: 1.0770

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0098

Daily control level: 1.1050




GBPUSD




The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.5470

Target 2: 1.5250

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0088

Daily control level: 1.5445




USDJPY




The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 122.30

Target 2: 120.80

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.76

Daily control level: 120.60





USDCHF




The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.000

Target 2: 0.9850

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0080

Daily control level: 0.9800



USDCAD




The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.3265

Target 2: 1.3030

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0116

Daily control level: 1.3050



AUDUSD





The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.7215

Target 2: 0.7100

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0072

Daily control level: 0.7110



GOLD




The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1121.00

Target 2: 1093.00

Projected range in ATR’s: 14.15

Daily control level: 1138.55



OIL





The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 48.65

Target 2: 45.60

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.53

Daily control level: 48.85












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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 06.11.2015



Yesterday lunch time the Bank of England announced that they would keep their Official Bank Rate on hold at 0.50%.

The decision by the Monetary Policy Committee in favour of not moving to increase interest rates from the current levels was in line with expectations.

The official voting for the Bank Rate of 1-0-8 was also in line with expectations. The lone dissenter on the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee was once again Ian McCafferty.

Mr. McCafferty argued in favour of increasing interest rates by 25 basis points from 0.50% that they have stood at since March 2009 to 0.75%.

However, what did surprise the markets, was both the Bank of England Inflation Report and the subsequent press conference which conveyed a message that was extremely doveish.

The Bank of England released some forecasts and revisions which were more or less in line with previous releases.

The Bank of England, however, did emphasize downside risk to inflation and assumed an interest rate of only 0.8% in early 2017. This is due to concerns surrounding global growth.

This is in stark contrast to the Federal Reserve which removed external country factors which have been identified in China, the Emerging Markets and closer to home in the Euro-Area.

This news sent traders long of the British Pound looking for cover as Cable crashed and EURGBP rallied.

Until recently, many commentators argued for and some expected the Bank of England to move on interest rates before Janet Yellen and her colleagues on the FOMC took action of their own.

However, the doveish surprise that was delivered yesterday has seemingly ended this scenario. With the Federal Reserve poised to increase its own Fed Funds interest rate, the divergence between the British and United States interest rate forward forecasts has become very apparent.

This divergence between the United States and United Kingdom interest rate expectations if confirmed by a December lift off by the FOMC has the potential to drive down Cable to levels below 1.5000.








EURUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.0975

Target 2: 1.0790

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0097

Daily control level: 1.1050




GBPUSD




The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.5300

Target 2: 1.5100

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0098

Daily control level: 1.5400




USDJPY





The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 122.50

Target 2: 121.00

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.78

Daily control level: 120.60



USDCHF



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.0000

Target 2: 0.9865

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0080

Daily control level: 0.9880




USDCAD




The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.3275

Target 2: 1.3060

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0109

Daily control level: 1.3140



AUDUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.7215

Target 2: 0.7070

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0072

Daily control level: 0.7125



GOLD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1118.00

Target 2: 1090.00

Projected range in ATR’s: 14.26

Daily control level: 1111.00



OIL




The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 47.60

Target 2: 44.50

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.51

Daily control level: 47.20







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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 09.11.2015



Friday’s stunning United States Jobs Report saw both the Average Earning and Non-Farm Payrolls numbers catch many traders. This latest news has greatly increased the odds of the US Federal Reserve moving on rates at this coming December meeting.

Unless the December Jobs Report turns out to be a complete disaster, many market participants now expect that the FOMC Chairwoman, Janet Yellen, and her colleagues will increase the Fed Funds rate by 25 bp.

The certainty that such an event will happen has highlighted the growing divergence between the Federal Reserve and its counterpart across the globe which are either increasing stimulus or being extremely reticence in indicating when rates will increase.
The contrast is so obvious across the Atlantic in London. Mark Carney, the Bank of England Governor only last week was very clear in his views that the UK was somewhat far away from moving on interest rates.

Not so long ago, there was much discussion on the Bank of England moving on rates before the US Federal Reserve. However, it is now very obvious that the Bank of England will take a patient line and allow the US to move ahead on rates before any move on tightening is made.

Last week’s events reinforce the view that the US greenback, despite the huge debt burden of the Federal Government will continue to be the world’s reserve currency of choice and that the US Federal Reserve is the leading central bank.

Time will tell if another currency can claim the US Dollar’s Crowne, but it would appear that this possibility is many economic cycles away.





EURUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.0835

Target 2: 1.0620

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0108

Daily control level: 1.0900


GBPUSD




The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.5160

Target 2: 1.4940

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0108

Daily control level: 1.5400



USDJPY




The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 124.10

Target 2: 122.45

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.86

Daily control level: 120.60



USDCHF



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.0130

Target 2: 0.9965

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0084

Daily control level: 0.9880



USDCAD




The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.3415

Target 2: 1.3190

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0114

Daily control level: 1.3140




AUDUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 0.7200

Target 2: 0.6950

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0077

Daily control level: 0.7170



GOLD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1104.00

Target 2: 1074.00

Projected range in ATR’s: 15.05

Daily control level: 1111.00



OIL




The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 46.60

Target 2: 43.60

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.54

Daily control level: 46.35







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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 10.11.2015



The Organisation for Co-operation and Development in its latest update for Global GDP has cut its forecast from 3.0% to 2.9%.

The OECD has also raised fears that the slowdown in growth is now pushing the international economy close to levels which would signal a global recession.

China was highlighted as a main reason behind the drop off in GDP as it sighted that reduction in demand for imported commodities was affecting neighbouring Asian nations.

However, the OECD sounded more optimistic for 2016 and 2017 as it predicted a pickup in growth.

The OECD identified that stimulus measures were taken by China and other countries as the main reason why it predicted that there would be a bounce next year.

The OECD decided to add its say on the debate with respect to United States interest rates and called upon the Federal Reserve to go ahead with its expected increase in the Fed Funds rate this coming December.

A move to increase the US benchmark interest rate by 25 bp would be the first step in nominalizing the interest rate environment.

A December move by the FOMC would come at a time when there are real signs that the United States economic recovery is taking off.

These signs of positive growth were highlighted last Friday when the US Department of Labor Statistics published extremely strong Jobs Report with both the Non-Farm Payrolls and Average Hourly Earnings releases beating estimates by a wide margin.






EURUSD





The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.0850

Target 2: 1.0640

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0108

Daily control level: 1.0900





GBPUSD





The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.5220

Target 2: 1.5005

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0108

Daily control level: 1.5400



USDJPY




The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 124.00

Target 2: 122.25

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.88

Daily control level: 120.60





USDCHF





The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.0150

Target 2: 0.9950

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0083

Daily control level: 0.9880




USDCAD




The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.3390

Target 2: 1.3180

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0105

Daily control level: 1.3140




AUDUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 0.7115

Target 2: 0.6970

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0074

Daily control level: 0.7170




GOLD





The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1106.00

Target 2: 1077.00

Projected range in ATR’s: 14.28

Daily control level: 1111.00




OIL




The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 46.00

Target 2: 43.50

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.54

Daily control level: 45.95







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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 11.11.2015



China has announced that it wants to enhance the international profile of its currency the Yuan. It plans to do this by upgrading the status of its currency by having the Chinese Yuan included into the basket of currencies that make up the International Monetary Fund, Foreign Exchange Reserve Assets.

The IMF Reserve Assets, also known as the Special Drawing Rights was created in 1969 and initially included the US Dollar, British Pound, French Franc, German Deutschmark and Japanese Yen. However with the launch of the single European currency, both the German and French participations were replaced by the Euro.

The SDR is not a currency, however, it is an important tool used by the IMF so as to help maintain global macroeconomic stability. The SDR can be used for instance during times when liquidity and credit in the market dry up such as the case of the 2008 crisis.

Apart from the obvious kudos for China that comes with becoming a component part of the IMF’s, SDR basket, there is also another factor why the second largest global economy would like to be a member of this very exclusive club.

China for some time has strived to reform its economy and evolve it from being the factory of the planet to become a modern global economy with a lower but a more sustainable growth model.

It is, therefore, a fairly obvious requirement that one of the world’s most important economies becomes a member of this foreign exchange based stability mechanism.

As the IMF carries out a review every five years and with the next review due to take place, China sees it vital to its interest that it is currency joins the SDR basket.

Although such a move would be very much symbolic due to the restrictive nature of the current Chinses financial system, it will be however a step towards normalizing China’s economy and bring it in line with the other developed nations.

There are risks if other members, most notably the United States blocks Chinese entry into the IMF SDR programme. Such a move could antagonise the Chinese political establishment who will see this as an embarrassing slap in the face.

A rejection by the IMF could, therefore, see the Chinese Government decide to go it alone and chart their own course with other partners such as Russia and Brazil.

If, however, the Yuan is accepted into the SDR basket, the Chinese Government will have to show concrete willingness to allow the Yuan to move freely and in line with market forces








EURUSD




The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.0820

Target 2: 1.0630

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0099

Daily control level: 1.0790





GBPUSD





The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.5220

Target 2: 1.5015

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0105

Daily control level: 1.5090





USDJPY






The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 123.95

Target 2: 122.30

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.84

Daily control level: 123.43





USDCHF





The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.0130

Target 2: 0.9985

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0077

Daily control level: 1.0018






USDCAD






The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.3375

Target 2: 1.3170

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0105

Daily control level: 1.3295



AUDUSD




The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.7100

Target 2: 0.6950

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0076

Daily control level: 0.7014





GOLD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1104.00

Target 2: 1075.00

Projected range in ATR’s: 14.54

Daily control level: 1096.00





OIL




The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 46.00

Target 2: 43.00

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.54

Daily control level: 45.95









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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 12.11.2015




Overnight news from Australia propelled the Aussie Dollar higher. The 90 pip rise in AUDUSD was due to a set of very strong employment numbers.

The strength of the incoming data has resulted in the Australian Dollar reaching the upper level of today’s expected true range at the 0.7135 level.

This price level coincides with strong overhead resistance that is formed by a prior, multi-decade broken uptrend line.

With the price action consolidating between strong overhead resistance and the 0.7135 level, it could be expected that AUDUSD trends down to sideways in a corrective fashion.
This morning’s news release from the Australian Bureau of Statistics included the Employment Change and Unemployment Rate numbers.

The Employment Change release measures the change in the numbers those employed during the previous month.

The prior release was negative -0.8K and the market expected to see a slight improvement to 14.8K. However, the actual release smashed estimates by posting a hefty 58.6K.

The Unemployment Rate continued to fall and now stands below the 6% level. The market had expected to see a release of 6.2% which would have meant it was in line with the prior months data. However, the actual number beat predictions and was reported as 5.9%.

The creation of employment is an extremely important leading indicator as the salaries are a driver for consumer spending.

As consumer spending is by far the largest component of all economic activity, signs that a positive trend exists in labour creation can be used as a barometer that measures the health of the economy.

What happens in Australia also has wider implications for the global economy. The Australian economy is tied closely to the fortunes of China. This is due to the high volume of exports, especially of commodities that Australia sends to China.

Therefore, a pick up in the Australian economy could be used as a leading indicator to what happens in the world’s second-largest economy.

Furthermore, with both the United States Federal Reserve Chairwoman, Janet Yellen and the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney identifying external risks as a reason to hold back on interest rate increases, the news that one of the world’s largest commodity exporting nations is experiencing improving economic conditions will not go unnoticed.







EURUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.0830

Target 2: 1.0650

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0092

Daily control level: 1.0704




GBPUSD




The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.5300

Target 2: 1.5100

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0103

Daily control level: 1.5090




USDJPY




The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 123.60

Target 2: 122.00

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.77

Daily control level: 123.43




USDCHF




The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.0115

Target 2: 0.9970

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0073

Daily control level: 1.0018





USDCAD




The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.3350

Target 2: 1.3165

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0097

Daily control level: 1.3295



AUDUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.7135

Target 2: 0.6985

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0076

Daily control level: 0.7014




GOLD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1099.00

Target 2: 1072.00

Projected range in ATR’s: 13.67

Daily control level: 1096.00





OIL





The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 46.50

Target 2: 42.50

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.55

Daily control level: 45.25






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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 13.11.2015





This morning, the two heavyweights of the Euro-Area, Germany and France had economic growth news published.

Destatis and INSEE announced preliminary GDP numbers for the third quarter for Germany and France respectively.

German GDP declined in Q3 after having experienced a moderate bounce in Q2. The published data of 0.3% was in line with market expectations but less than the 0.4% of Q2.
In contrast, the French GDP number was much more positive with the actual of 0.3% being line with market expectations and above Q2’s prior release of 0.0%. It was however not a totally positive picture with the current level of French quarterly GDP being half of the high watermark level of 0.6% for May of this year.

The latest GDP numbers giving the European Central Bank President, Mr Mario Draghi little in the way of comfort. It would now appear that European policymakers are inching ever closer to the inevitable of increasing stimulus with the aim to boost the Euro-Zones sluggish economic recovery.

Draghi reiterated previous statements on Thursday when he saying the ECB was ready to review the current stimulus programme in December.

The ECB President’s very dovish stance was highlighted when he said that “The option of doing nothing would go against price stability.”

Draghi went further in saying that “From today’s perspective, this suggests that a sustained normalisation of inflation could take longer than we anticipated in March when we first appraised the overall impact of our measures. We have always said that our purchases would run beyond end-September 2016 in case we do not see a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation that is consistent with our aim of achieving inflation rates below, but close to, 2% over the medium term. Other instruments could also be activated to strengthen the impact of the purchase programme if necessary.”

Draghi’s comments initially sent the Euro lower, however buyers did come into the market around the 1.0700 area.

The move off the lows has resulted in the price action trading higher as it forms a series of higher lows and higher highs.

However, with the obvious divergence in US Federal Reserve and ECB monetary policy, it would not be difficult to imagine that any rally in the Euro could be short lived.










EURUSD




The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.0910

Target 2: 1.07150

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0098

Daily control level: 1.0690





GBPUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.5330

Target 2: 1.5125

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0102

Daily control level: 1.5170




USDJPY




The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 123.30

Target 2: 121.85

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.75

Daily control level: 123.06



USDCHF




The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.0050

Target 2: 0.9925

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0074

Daily control level: 1.0083





USDCAD




The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.3385

Target 2: 1.3190

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0100

Daily control level: 1.3222



AUDUSD




The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.7195

Target 2: 0.7055

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0073

Daily control level: 0.7085




GOLD





The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1098.00

Target 2: 1069.50

Projected range in ATR’s: 14.37

Daily control level: 1094.00






OIL




The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 44.00

Target 2: 41.00

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.57

Daily control level: 45.25






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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 16.11.2015








Overnight, the Cabinet Office of the Japanese Government published Preliminary Third Quarter Gross Domestic Product numbers.

Unfortunately, the data that was presented for the third biggest global economy was extremely disappointing.

The markets had expected a GDP number of -0.1%, however, the actual release when it was announced stood at -0.2%.

Last night’s negative GDP data is the second quarter in succession that the Japanese economy has contracted.  From a technical standpoint, the Japanese economy has now entered into a recession.

The sluggish GDP data will now put further pressure on the Shinzo Abe administration and the Bank of Japan to continue with a programme of economic stimulus and structural corrections.

The Japanese Government has however tried to put a positive spin on the latest GDP Data with Akira Amari, who is the Economics Minister saying “While there are risks such as overseas developments, we expect the economy to head toward a moderate recovery thanks to the effect of various (stimulus) steps taken so far.”












EURUSD




The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.0840

Target 2: 1.0635

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0105

Daily control level: 1.0830




GBPUSD





The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.5325

Target 2: 1.5125

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0102

Daily control level: 1.5186



USDJPY




The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.5325

Target 2: 1.5125

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0102

Daily control level: 1.5186




USDCHF




The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.0135

Target 2: 0.9985

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0077

Daily control level: 0.99



USDCAD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.3395

Target 2: 1.3205

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0098

Daily control level: 1.3265




AUDUSD




The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.7185

Target 2: 0.7050

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0071

Daily control level: 0.7085




GOLD




The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1104.00

Target 2: 1074.00

Projected range in ATR’s: 15.12

Daily control level: 1079.00




OIL




The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 43.50

Target 2: 40.50

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.63

Daily control level: 43.40



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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 17.11.2015.







This morning at 10:00 a.m. London time, German Center for the European Economic research (ZEW) will release the German Economic Sentiment data.

Around 350 financial analysts are participating in the survey, which shows the balance between the experts who have an optimistic opinion about the Germany’ economic developments within the next six months and these who are not.

Germany is the 4th largest economy in the world and by far the biggest and the most influential within the European Union, which makes it very influential to the common European currency.

Since the ZEW index is an important indicator which provides with the outlook of the country’s economic health, it typically causes heightened volatility in the EUR currency pairs.

The data above zero will generally indicate optimism and the opposite so below zero.
The German sentiment trend is declining since March 2015 when data reached this year’s high of 54.8. The statistics usually quite volatile and not following a smooth trend.

The forecast for today’s release is expected to read 6.7 which will be a slight improvement on the prior months 1.9 reading.

A higher reading in today’s number would be significant as it would be the first time in over six months that the ZEW would have broken its downtrend.

In case the release will be lower than expected, this will likely to put additional pressure to the recently weak EURUSD pair.








EURUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.0775

Target 2: 1.0595

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0094

Daily control level: 1.0830





GBPUSD




The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.5295

Target 2: 1.5100

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0099

Daily control level: 1.5265




USDJPY




The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 123.80

Target 2: 122.50

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.71

Daily control level: 122.20







USDCHF






The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.0160

Target 2: 1.0025

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0070

Daily control level: 0.9996





USDCAD





The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.3415

Target 2: 1.3240

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0089

Daily control level: 1.3285






AUDUSD





The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 0.7155

Target 2: 0.7030

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0066

Daily control level: 0.7110






GOLD




The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1097.00

Target 2: 1070.00

Projected range in ATR’s: 13.70

Daily control level: 1098.00





OIL





The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 44.00

Target 2: 41.50

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.55

Daily control level: 43.40






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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 19.11.2015




Not many would have thought that when the benchmark Federal Funds target interest rate dropped under 0.25% in 2008 that it would stay at this level for some 7 years.

However, yesterday’s much-anticipated release of the FOMC minutes for October the markets received the clearest indication that the Chairwoman, Janet Yellen and her colleagues on the Federal Reserve committee are now finally ready to increase interest rates.

According to the Minutes of the October meeting, the Federal Reserve said that the economic outlook would have improved sufficiently, or in their words “be met” by the December meeting for an agreement to be reached to increase interest rates.

In a further hawkish message, the FOMC minutes noted, “The US financial system appeared to have weathered the turbulence in global financial markets without any sign of systemic stress.”

The market had expected that the Federal Reserve could have increased interest rates at the September gathering, however, concerns over the contraction of the Chinese and Emerging Market economies combined with patchy economic data led to the committee members taking a cautious approach.

Since October, there has been very strong news with respect to US employment with the last jobs report posting impressive Non-Farm Payrolls and Average Earnings numbers.

The October meeting took place before the positive US employment numbers were announced. However, barring a disastrous data being announced in December and with the China story dropping from the focus of attention it would appear that the Federal Reserve has no reasons why it should not raise interest rates next month.

Furthermore, one outcome of the tragic events that took place in France recently is the rapprochement in relations between the United States and her allies with Russia. A more stable geopolitical picture would do much to reduce risk and calm the nerves of investors and would be one less issue for the FOMC to worry about.






EURUSD




The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.0750

Target 2: 1.0570

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0092

Daily control level: 1.0615




GBPUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.5330

Target 2: 1.5140

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0095

Daily control level: 1.5185



USDJPY




The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 124.25

Target 2: 122.95

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.66

Daily control level: 123.75




USDCHF




The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.0270

Target 2: 1.0120

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0075

Daily control level: 1.0125




USDCAD




The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.3355

Target 2: 1.3250

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0083

Daily control level: 1.3370



AUDUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.7175

Target 2: 0.7040

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0069

Daily control level: 0.7070



GOLD




The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1086.00

Target 2: 1054.00

Projected range in ATR’s: 15.92

Daily control level: 1097.95



OIL




The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 43.70

Target 2: 40.60

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.54

Daily control level: 42.70








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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 23.11.2015





The European series of Flash Manufacturing PMI is taking the centre of traders’ attention this morning. French and German Flash PMI data are projected to increase to 50.7 and 52.2 correspondingly, with only general European PMI awaited to remain without changes at 52.3.

This set of PMI is released by Markit financial Information and typically comes out three weeks after a month ends after a month ends and may add volatility to the Euro pairs.

The European Manufacturing PMI set of data is a leading indicator of economic health in the manufacturing sector as purchasing managers possess good inside of the current economic conditions and adapt to them rapidly.

Around 500 purchasing managers from each zone are questioned to rate the current business conditions regarding an amount of new orders, inventories and production levels and also to rate employment sphere and supplier deliveries.

A number above 50 indicates that the industry is expanding, whereas 50 will states that there were no changes, with the below that showing a contraction.

The releases coming above the projections will usually have a positive effect on the common European currency with the vice versa applicable as well.

EURUSD has opened sharply lower this morning, as the US dollar continue to gain strength and reaching above 100 level during this morning, the level last seen seven month ago.






EURUSD




The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.0734

Target 2: 1.0544

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0095

Daily control level: 1.0825




GBPUSD




The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.5271

Target 2: 1.5075

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0098

Daily control level: 1.5335




USDJPY



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 123.47

Target 2: 122.13

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.668

Daily control level: 123.75






USDCHF




The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Range

Target 1: 1.0270

Target 2: 1.0118

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0076

Daily control level: 1.000





USDCAD




The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: UP

Target 1: 1.3415

Target 2: 1.3251

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0082

Daily control level: 1.3245






AUDUSD




The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.7301

Target 2: 0.7159

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0071

Daily control level: 0.7070






GOLD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1090.25

Target 2: 1062.85

Projected range in ATR’s: 13.70

Daily control level: 1098.00





OIL



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 43.28

Target 2: 40.28

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.504

Daily control level: 43.00





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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 24.11.2015





Oil ended last trading session higher after Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest petroleum exporter, agreed to cooperate with other oil producing countries on price stability.

West Texas Intermediate price reached US$ 43.00 high during the yesterday’s session, whereas Brent surged to US$ 45.99 level.  After a market experienced a significant volatility due to the announcement, WTI closed the day 45 cents higher, whereas Brent gained 58 cents.

Oil price lost almost two third of the value since its collapse began in the middle of 2014, with the WTI hitting the low of US$ 37.92 at the end of last August.

In the previous meeting held by Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries  last month, Saudi Arabia declared that despite the worrying market state it is not willing to cut the production presently.

As the oil industry is mainly controlled by just a few large oil producers, it implies quite a harsh competition. By allowing a significant price drop, the larger producers could ensure that smaller competitors will be erased, as producing at the low cost is unsustainable to them.

Nevertheless the incentive for higher prices has still remained for the producers, with many analysts believe that the currently low prices could not last long.

At the moment, the OPEC has set the limits of production at 30 million barrels per day. However, since there is no penalty imposed on the producers in case these restrictions are exceeded, the chances are that the present parameters are not kept by some of the OPEC members.

The Saudi comments came just a day after the Venezuelan Oil Minister Eulogio Del Pino told in a press conference that the oil price could drop to as low as US$ 20 if no change in the OPEC’s current policy will be made.

Mr Del Pino comments are doubled by the September’s forecast of Goldman Sachs, which indicated that the Oil price could reach US$ 20 per barrel next year. Nevertheless, the majority of analysts believe that the oil price should balance closer to US$ 60.

For now the Saudi Arabia proposed “willingness to cooperate” does not, in fact, change anything and remains just words. Recently surging US Dollar is adding further pressure on the black commodity’s price.

The weakness of the world’s second largest economy China, therefore the significantly reduced demand for Oil is an additional heavy weighting factor. Therefore drastic actions and significant efforts need to be implemented in order for the oil price to recover in the near future.

The next OPEC meeting will be held on December 4 could give some more hints regarding the direction of the Oil price in the near future, however, it seems unlikely that the current market-based pricing strategy will be abandoned by the organization.

 

EURUSD





The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.0726

Target 2: 1.0546

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0097

Daily control level: 1.0825




GBPUSD





The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.5219

Target 2: 1.5025

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0097

Daily control level: 1.5335






USDJPY



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 123.48

Target 2: 122.18

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.649

Daily control level: 123.75







USDCHF




The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.0270

Target 2: 1.0118

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0076

Daily control level: 1.000






USDCAD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.3445

Target 2: 1.3281

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0082

Daily control level: 1.3245







AUDUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.7256

Target 2: 0.7120

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0068

Daily control level: 0.7070





GOLD




The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1081.75

Target 2: 1055.85

Projected range in ATR’s: 12.95

Daily control level: 1098.00







OIL



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 43.80

Target 2: 40.84

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.482

Daily control level: 43.00







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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 25.11.2015




Further updates on economic conditions within the United States will come in the form of the monthly Core Durable Goods Orders data this afternoon at 1:30 pm London time.

The index released by the US Census Bureau represents the change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with domestic manufacturers for delivery of durable goods.

Transportation and aircraft items are excluded from the index, since these goods are of a high value and volatility and can significantly distort the overall picture.

Durable goods are defined as items with a life expectancy of more than three years, which includes cars, computers, industrial machinery and appliances.

Monthly manufacturers’ inventories, shipments and orders are surveyed with the manufacturing companies of US$ 500 million and more in yearly deliveries.

An increased level of purchase orders shows that producers will be busy in the coming months to work on filling the orders, which consequently will influence the creation of additional jobs and increase spending.

The value of the index for the month of October is projected to improve to 0.5%, up from -0.3% of the previous publishing.

The actual value of the indicator that is above the forecasted will likely have a boosting effect on the US currency.

US Dollar Index has recently set new highs and was trading above 100 mark at the beginning of this week’s trading session. However, the index showed some weakness for the last two days and reached 99.35 low this morning.



EURUSD




The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.0732

Target 2: 1.0552

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0090

Daily control level: 1.0830






GBPUSD




The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.5168

Target 2: 1.4988

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0090

Daily control level: 1.5335






USDJPY




The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 123.17

Target 2: 121.89

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.642

Daily control level: 123.75





USDCHF




The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.0237

Target 2: 1.0089

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0074

Daily control level: 1.000






USDCAD




The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.3382

Target 2: 1.3224

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0079

Daily control level: 1.3245



AUDUSD





The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.7319

Target 2: 0.7181

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0069

Daily control level: 0.7150




GOLD




The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Range

Target 1: 1088.38

Target 2: 1061.82

Projected range in ATR’s: 13.27

Daily control level: 1098.00



OIL



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 44.58

Target 2: 41.58

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.5007

Daily control level: 40.65






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