Daily Technical Analysis

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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 30.07.2015



The United States Federal Reserve has voted in favour of keeping interest rates at the current levels of close to zero.

Although there was universal agreement among all the FOMC members, the improving state of the US economy was highlighted in the latest statement.

The FOMC said, “Economic activity has been expanding moderately in recent months.” This would seem to indicate that the improving economic climate would point to an interest rate rise sooner rather than later. Therefore, the bets are now on the Federal Reserve nominalizing the interest rate environment in September rather than December.

The FOMC in its statement noted the improvement on the Job and Real Estate market. Furthermore, there was also the satisfaction that consumer spending has finally begun to increase.

The inflation picture is still not at the target level, however, the Federal Reserve stated that a sustained move to the 2% objective will happen.

The FOMC through its action of deliberate forward guidance has now prepared the market for a period of higher interest rates. The US Dollar off the back of last night’s statement has appreciated during the early morning trading.

The British Pound, however, has traded in a tight range and has remained above the previous day’s lows. This is due to the expectation that the Bank of England soon will also begin to increase interest rates.



EURUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.1090

Target 2: 1.0876

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0107

Daily control level: 1.1125



GBPUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.5698

Target 2: 1.5496

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0101

Daily control level: 1.5585




USDJPY



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 124.57

Target 2: 123.29

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.64

Daily control level: 123.30



USDCHF



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.9752

Target 2: 0.9586

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0083

Daily control level: 0.9600



USDCAD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.3045

Target 2: 1.2841

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0102

Daily control level: 1.2860




AUDUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 0.7375

Target 2: 0.7213

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0081

Daily control level: 0.7350




GOLD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1113.14

Target 2: 1080.38

Projected range in ATR’s: 16.38

Daily control level: 1105.00






OIL



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 50.41

Target 2: 47.31

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.55

Daily control level: 47.40




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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 31.07.2015



The unprecedented market decline continues in China. The government interference of 27 July only had a brief success with the Shanghai Composite Index now declining to pre-intervention levels. At the moment China Securities Finance Corporation, which belongs to the state, is spending around 180 billion yuan a day to support the equities.

However, as the investors started to figure out the timing of the government purchases, waiting that moment to unload their stocks. This is rendered this measure ineffective.

The relatively quiet mornings in the Shanghai Stock exchange are usually followed by very volatile markets in the afternoon, which made analysts question the reasons of such a perplexing behaviour. Currently, a few factors were identified.

The margin call from lenders is and market hitting stop losses often prompt the wave of new selling. In addition, the investors are usually opening position later in the day, after having the opportunity to observe the market behaviour in the morning and figuring out that the government purchasing is going on around that time.

One more factor adds to the share market decline. The Shanghai Stock exchange is dominated by the individual investors, who mostly use technical analysis rather than fundamental factors when making their investment.

The companies’ value, in this case, is diverted from the chart’s actions, rather than based on the calculations of the fair value of the company.

This in turn could lead to illogical and “go with the flow” actions, leading to further sell-off. This also complicates the classical valuation techniques making the market more unpredictable and difficult to control.



EURUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.1030

Target 2: 1.0832

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0099

Daily control level: 1.1125






GBPUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.5710

Target 2: 1.5490

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0110

Daily control level: 1.5585




USDJPY



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Range

Target 1: 124.72

Target 2: 123.54

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.595

Daily control level: 123.30




USDCHF



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.9769

Target 2: 0.9613

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0083

Daily control level: 0.9600




USDCAD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.3045

Target 2: 1.2841

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0102

Daily control level: 1.2860



AUDUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 0.7375

Target 2: 0.7213

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0081

Daily control level: 0.7350



GOLD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1104.24

Target 2: 1072.32

Projected range in ATR’s: 15.96

Daily control level: 1105.00






OIL



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 55.24

Target 2: 52.40

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.418

Daily control level: 47.40



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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 03.08.2015



Today Greece is reopening its stock markets, which were closed since the end of the June. This will be one more step towards normalizing the struggling country’s economy.

Immediate heavy losses are expected, with some analysts projecting the draw-down to reach as much as 20 percent.

The resumption of trading begins as the deal for the bailout extension was made between Greek government and its international creditors, comprised of the European Central Bank, the European Commission and the International Monetary Fund.

The bridge loan of 7 billion euro was arranged for the cash-strapped country in order to repay the delayed instalment to the IMF as well as the Greek bonds held by the ECB.

The deal will promote the further measures to ensure the country’s debt is sustainable. These will be stringent reforms in the pensions system and taxes, as well as other budget’s austerity measures.

The operation of the Greek stock exchange was suspended since June 29, together with the imposition on the capital controls, to prevent the heavy outflow of the funds from the country, threatening the Greece banking system’s collapse.

The stocks are expected to be down between 19 and 22 percent, which is partly estimated based on the Greek assets traded in the United States.

In addition, the traders concern about the negotiations on the new bailout could add a further pressure on the stocks of the struggling EU member. The fears that the negotiations might fail and the Greece economy will be once more left with the shortage of cash does not add any optimism to the short-term outlook for the trading of the Greek shares.

We should keep in mind that banking sector comprises about 20% of the Athens stock exchange, making therefore making the index highly vulnerable to any negative events regarding the future bailout agreement.

Furthermore, the recent bank closure and restrictions on the cash withdrawals and money transfers, have been a weighty toll on the operations of the Greek companies, many of which saw the sales decline to more than a quarter.

The overall economic prospects of Greece are neither on the bright side. It is projected that the country’s economy will decline between 2 to 4 percent this year, which could cause the country to slide deeper into recession.




EURUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Range

Target 1: 1.1075

Target 2: 1.0867

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0104

Daily control level: 1.1125






GBPUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Range

Target 1: 1.5728

Target 2: 1.5536

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0096

Daily control level: 1.5670






USDJPY



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Range

Target 1: 124.47

Target 2: 123.29

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.5913

Daily control level: 124.45




USDCHF



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.9747

Target 2: 0.9561

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0085

Daily control level: 0.9710



USDCAD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: UpA

Target 1: 1.3193

Target 2: 1.2983

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0085

Daily control level: 1.2910





AUDUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 0.7403

Target 2: 0.7233

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0085

Daily control level: 0.7260



GOLD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1112.68

Target 2: 1078.68

Projected range in ATR’s: 17.00

Daily control level: 1105.00



OIL



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 53.56

Target 2: 50.80

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.383

Daily control level: 55.50



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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 04.08.2015



Standard & Poor’s rating agency revised the European Union’s outlook from “Stable” to “Negative”. The outlook downgrade affects all the current 28 European members, 9 of which do not participate in the Eurozone, therefore using their own currency.

The reason for the downgrade, among other issues is that “the EU will provide first-loss guarantee support for financing connected to the Juncker Plan”, as the agency cited.

The Investment plan, announced last November by the European commission President Jean-Claude Juncker was created to encourage investments in Europe. It was approved by the European Parliament in June. The Juncker stimulus plan is expected to roll out 315 billion euros over three years.

The challenge with the plan is its assumption for the EU to “provide first-loss guarantee support”, therefore will provide financed backup.

The second reason is that the plan brings a significant economic pressure on the three largest EU budgetary contributors – Germany, United Kingdom and France.

Furthermore, “the EU’s repeated use of its balance sheet to provide higher-risk financing to EU member states (most recently including Greece), without the member states’ paying in capital,” was brought up in the press release.

“The negative outlook on the EU also reflects its lack of any paid-in capital, a key difference compared with other multilateral institutions. The EU continues to run a very large negative net asset position, largely reflecting its considerable pension obligations” – the statement continues.

The recently financed part of the Greek bailout, in addition to previous funding of the weaker members such as Spain, Portugal and Cyprus have taken a toll on the EU budget. However, there is not much capital coming in from the 28 member states union.

 

EURUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Range

Target 1: 1.1050

Target 2: 1.0848

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0101

Daily control level: 1.1125








GBPUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Range

Target 1: 1.5679

Target 2: 1.5489

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0095

Daily control level: 1.5670


USDJPY



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Range

Target 1: 124.59

Target 2: 123.45

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.5719

Daily control level: 124.45






USDCHF



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.9762

Target 2: 0.9614

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0095

Daily control level: 0.9710



USDCAD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.3249

Target 2: 1.3059

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0095

Daily control level: 1.2910






AUDUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Range

Target 1: 0.7367

Target 2: 0.7199

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0084

Daily control level: 0.7260



GOLD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1101.01

Target 2: 1066.57

Projected range in ATR’s: 17.22

Daily control level: 1105.00



OIL



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 51.58

Target 2: 48.76

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.414

Daily control level: 55.50





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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 05.08.2015



The probability that the Greece’s economy will be harmed further by the new austerity measures imposed by the creditors is real. The analysts believe that unless the debt afflicted country will receive a substantial loan relief, it will suffer permanent depression along with further deterioration of its economic health.

For example it is projected that only the increase in VAT, which was one of the measures to be accepted by the Greek government in order to receive the bailout funds, will cause the GDP decrease of more than one percent next year. This will be due to even weaker consumer spending and continuous shrinking of the economy.

In 2016, the country’s Gross domestic product is calculated to be 30% lower, than at the beginning of the crisis in 2010 and 7% so comparing to the time when Greece has joined the Eurozone in 2001.

Currently, the Greek stock market continues to decline. On Monday, when the stock exchanges opened after being closed since the end of June many stocks suffered trading suspension due to the limit down of 30% decline. The heaviest losers were the banking sector stocks, the decline of which continued on Tuesday with the results much the same.

The Greek Banks are the industry, which was particularly hard hit due to the heavy economic decline. More than 50 percent of the country’s loans are non-performing. The deposit flight was continuing at an unprecedented level during the past six months, and only ceased as the capital controls were enforced in June. This has caused huge liquidity problems and an urgent need for the recapitalisation.

The above was one of the factors, which pushed the Greek government to accept the new bailout agreement measures in order to receive 86 billion euro aid, 25 billion of which is allocated to go to the country’s banking sector.

At the moment, the negotiations with the country’s international creditors represented by the International Monetary Fund, European Commission and the European Central Bank are underway and expected to be concluded in the next two weeks.

As the new Greek finance minister Euclid Tsakalotos reported yesterday, the talks on the privatisation of the state assets, the main creditors’ demand is going smoothly, with the possibility of the final agreement to be reached even earlier.




EURUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.0981

Target 2: 1.0779

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0101

Daily control level: 1.1125




GBPUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Range

Target 1: 1.5657

Target 2: 1.5465

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0096

Daily control level: 1.5670


USDJPY



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Range

Target 1: 124.94

Target 2: 123.80

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.5748

Daily control level: 124.45



USDCHF



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.9858

Target 2: 0.9704

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0077

Daily control level: 0.9710




USDCAD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.3285

Target 2: 1.3095

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0095

Daily control level: 1.2910





AUDUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Range

Target 1: 0.7367

Target 2: 0.7199

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0084

Daily control level: 0.7260




GOLD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Range

Target 1: 1104.80

Target 2: 1070.42

Projected range in ATR’s: 17.19

Daily control level: 1105.00






OIL



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 52.02

Target 2: 49.21

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.405

Daily control level: 55.50



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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 06.08.2015



Today is the big and long expected day for the British pound, called by many media the “Super Thursday” At noon London time the Bank of England will release its August interest rate decision together with the minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting and new economic forecast.

This will be a new communication format, as all the elements are released at the same time. At 12:45 pm London time Mark Carney, BOE governor will hold a press conference.

Even though the interest rate is not expected to be increased this time, remaining at 0.5% which is in place since 2009, the policy tone is to be shifted. This will significantly intensify the high impact event.

The Governor Mark Carney has mentioned earlier that the rotation of the year will be the right time to start raising rates. Hence, the most likely we will see the rise in February 2016, which will be marked as a turning point.

It is important to follow the major points of the today’s event. Firstly the MPC voting is projected to change this time from the unanimous decision to hold the interest rates, voted for the last 7 months. This time the economists seeing at least two out of nine members to vote in favour of the increase.

Secondly, inflation forecasts will play a role of the future key guide. Changes regarding the medium-term outlook relative to the 2% target will be the main signal to reveal whether tighter or looser monetary policy will be required.

Wage growth rate will be an important component of today’s meeting. According to the latest statistics, the pay is rising at the fastest annual velocity during the last five years. That could be an alarm bell about the inflationary pressure in the labour market. On the other hand, some analytics count that’s the pace is not enough for the interest rate hike.

The language of the MPC Minutes will require a close observation also. For example the July’s minutes had a new line, which was reading as follows: “For a number of members, the balance of risks to medium-term inflation relative to the 2 per cent target was becoming more skewed to the upside at the current level of bank rate.”

One of the factors that could deter the enthusiasm about the rate increase could be the situation in Greece, which is still unresolved.

GBPUSD remains to range within 1.5670 – 1.5530 corridor in the expectation of the event. High volatility on all British Pound pairs should be anticipated this afternoon.



EURUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.1008

Target 2: 1.0802

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0103

Daily control level: 1.1125






GBPUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Range

Target 1: 1.5695

Target 2: 1.5507

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0094

Daily control level: 1.5670




USDJPY



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 125.47

Target 2: 124.23

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.6240

Daily control level: 124.45





USDCHF



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.9868

Target 2: 0.9708

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0080

Daily control level: 0.9710



USDCAD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.3274

Target 2: 1.3078

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0098

Daily control level: 1.2910



AUDUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Range

Target 1: 0.7441

Target 2: 0.7269

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0086

Daily control level: 0.7260



GOLD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Range

Target 1: 1101.47

Target 2: 1067.81

Projected range in ATR’s: 16.830

Daily control level: 1105.00





OIL



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 51.58

Target 2: 48.66

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.4630

Daily control level: 55.50



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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 07.08.2015




Bank of England has displayed yesterday no urgency to raise interest rates, making it clear that the earliest increase could be expected not earlier than in 2016.

The Monetary Policy Committee voted 1-0-8 in favour of holding the interest rate at the current level of 0.5%. This move surprised the investors as it was lower than the projections, according to which at least two members were expected to vote in favour of the hike.

The Britain’s economic recovery continues with the wages increasing faster in the recent months and the overall job market improving. Nevertheless, the inflation level is still significantly lower than the target 2% and is at the moment one of the major obstacles to proceed with the tightening measures.

“We are clearly closer to the time at which rates may have to go up, but that does not mean we’re fixing some particular point in the future”, Ben Broadbent, Bank of England Deputy Governor said in his interview yesterday.

“As I saw it, I didn’t think there was any urgency to raise interest rates right now,” he continued.

Yesterday, the Bank of England broke with the tradition and combined the set of the MPC’s rates decision, the minutes of the meeting, and its quarterly inflation report, alongside Bank governor Mark Carney’s regular press conference together.

The inflation report has downgraded the near-term inflation forecast after the drop in the prices of oil has resumed. The Bank now expects inflation to remain around zero for the next two months, with the rise to the targeted 2% expected gradually to be reached in two- year time.

 

EURUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.1024

Target 2: 1.0820

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0103

Daily control level: 1.1125




GBPUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Range

Target 1: 1.5612

Target 2: 1.5412

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0079

Daily control level: 1.5670




USDJPY



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 125.36

Target 2: 124.10

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.627

Daily control level: 124.45





USDCHF



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.9885

Target 2: 0.9727

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0079

Daily control level: 0.9710





USDCAD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.3107

Target 2: 1.3008

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0099

Daily control level: 1.2910



AUDUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Range

Target 1: 0.7426

Target 2: 0.7258

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0084

Daily control level: 0.7260





GOLD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Range

Target 1: 1101.47

Target 2: 1067.81

Projected range in ATR’s: 14.530

Daily control level: 1105.00





OIL



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 51.56

Target 2: 48.66

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.449

Daily control level: 55.50



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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 10.08.2015




It is hoped that the final deal between Greece and its international creditors will be concluded by tomorrow, as the negotiations on the final bailout programme are currently underway.

Greek finance and economy ministers are being in the final steps of negotiations with the creditors’ delegates currently. It was previously said that the final agreement is expected to be reached by August 18, with the final date now moved closer.

“Efforts are being made to conclude the negotiations. The horizon is by Monday night or early Tuesday,” – a Greek official in the interview to Reuters news agency was quoted.

“When the new bailout comes to parliament for a vote it will be one bill with two articles – one article will be the loan agreement, the Memorandum of understanding and the second article will be the prior actions,” he continued.

At the moment, for institutions are negotiating the 86 billion euro deal with Greece  – The International Monetary Fund, the European Central bank, European Commission and the European Stability Mechanism and there is a confidence that the agreement will be reached shortly. The indebted country needs additional liquidity in order to support its banking system and make payments on its obligations.

There are still some questions remained to agree though. The final amount of the third bailout program, the Greece’s third in the last five years should be evaluated. There are also some discrepancies regarding the country’s reforms, which need to be worked out so the fresh funds could be released.

The impending amount of 3.2 billion euro is due to the European Central Bank on August 20, therefore the solution needs to be found shortly. The situation, nevertheless,  is not pressing for an immediate solution as previously it was previously the case. The reason is that there are still additional 5 billion euros available for the Greece to borrow from a European fund.

Greek stock exchange has declined for more than 15% during the last week of reopening, after being shut since June 29.

 

EURUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Range

Target 1: 1.1062

Target 2: 1.0864

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0099

Daily control level: 1.1125



GBPUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Range

Target 1: 1.5592

Target 2: 1.5384

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0104

Daily control level: 1.5670





USDJPY



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 124.80

Target 2: 123.48

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.660

Daily control level: 124.45




USDCHF



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.9896

Target 2: 0.9734

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0081

Daily control level: 0.9710



USDCAD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.3222

Target 2: 1.3012

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0105

Daily control level: 1.2910



AUDUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Range

Target 1: 0.7494

Target 2: 0.7328

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0083

Daily control level: 0.7260




GOLD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Range

Target 1: 1109.13

Target 2: 1079.75

Projected range in ATR’s: 14.69

Daily control level: 1105.00



OIL



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 50.38

Target 2: 47.42

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.4764

Daily control level: 55.50



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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 11.08.2015



After the through the night negotiations the final deal on the Greece’s bailout assistance was concluded. The agreement will keep the country in the Eurozone and avoid its bankruptcy.

“An agreement has been reached. Some minor details are being discussed right now,” a Greek government official stated in an interview to reporters, after 18 hours consuming negotiations with the country’s international creditors represented by the ECB, International Monetary Fund, the European commission and the European Stability mechanism rescue fund.

The details of the agreement have not yet been made public, and there is a possibility that the final amount of the financial assistance could exceed the initially indicated 86 billion euro.

The primary budget deficit target was agreed at 0.25 percent of the gross domestic product this year, and 0.5 percent of the primary surplus for 2016, 1.75 percent for 2017 and 3.5 percent surplus in 2018.

Furthermore, additional issues on conducting privatizations and handling non-performing loans in the Greek banking sector were also agreed on.

Greece needs a quick release of the funds in order to settle a 3.2 billion euro of the bond repayment due to the European Central bank on August 20, which will now proceed smoothly.

Besides, Athens hopes to receive 20 billion euro urgently, which is needed to support the country’s weakened banking system.

Another 12 billion euro of the total amount will be allocated for the debt repayments with 5.3 billion euro in payments will be going to the state suppliers.

Following the agreement, Greek parliament will have to approve the measures required by the international creditors, which should be made before the meeting of the euro-area finance ministers this Friday.

 

EURUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Range

Target 1: 1.1122

Target 2: 1.0914

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0104

Daily control level: 1.1125


GBPUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Range

Target 1: 1.5699

Target 2: 1.5481

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0109

Daily control level: 1.5670




USDJPY



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 125.29

Target 2: 123.93

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.677

Daily control level: 124.45




USDCHF



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.9918

Target 2: 0.9752

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0083

Daily control level: 0.9710



USDCAD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.3113

Target 2: 1.2885

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0089

Daily control level: 1.2910




AUDUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Range

Target 1: 0.7500

Target 2: 0.7322

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0089

Daily control level: 0.7260



GOLD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Range

Target 1: 1109.50

Target 2: 1088.84

Projected range in ATR’s: 15.33

Daily control level: 1105.00






OIL



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 52.38

Target 2: 49.26

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.5600

Daily control level: 55.50



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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 12.08.2015




Chinese Yuan continued to depreciate, extending yesterday’s losses after the People’ Bank of China weakened the currency for the second day in the row. The Yuan price declined against the 6.1162 on Monday to a four-year low of 6.4392 in Shanghai.

The PBOC presented this change as an attempt for a free market reform, where the market forces will have more influence on determining the currency value.

The Chinese currency devaluation was a made after the set of disappointing economic data was published and as some analysts believe, could serve as a beginning to the longer-term slide in the exchange rate.

The rapid drop to around 4 percent in Chinese currency affected the markets worldwide, as investors fearing the further economic slump and are looking to switch their funds to safe-haven government debt. Meanwhile, the demand for the riskier assets is diminishing, with the equities, currencies and commodities experiencing a downward pressure.

It is feared that the Chinese government action will lead to the currency wars deepening when other countries’ Central Banks could potentially follow suit and weaken their currencies.

Asian stocks and emerging market currencies have tumbled this morning while MSCI’s Asia-pacific index fell to two-year low.

The currencies of the economies associated especially close to the Chinese economy suffered hardest blow. The Australian Dollar has reached a new low against the US Dollar of 0.7214 this morning, being the pair’s six-year low.

Brent Oil continued to tumble as it was trading below 49.50 support at the European session opening.

S&P 500 index, based on the market capitalization of 500 large US companies has been declining for the second day in the row, bouncing off the 2100.00 level yesterday and now trading around 2063.00 mark.

US Dollar index continued on the way down as well, after forming a double top pattern on the daily chart last week. It has now slid below 96.80 level.

The Common European currency, however, has strengthened for the third consecutive day, after the final deal between Greece and its International creditors was arranged yesterday in the morning.



EURUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Range

Target 1: 1.1148

Target 2: 1.0934

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0107

Daily control level: 1.1125




GBPUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Range

Target 1: 1.5671

Target 2: 1.5469

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0101

Daily control level: 1.5670




USDJPY



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 125.83

Target 2: 124.39

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.7188

Daily control level: 123.70




USDCHF



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.9966

Target 2: 0.9792

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0087

Daily control level: 0.9710



USDCAD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Range

Target 1: 1.3230

Target 2: 1.2996

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0117

Daily control level: 1.2910



AUDUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 0.7393

Target 2: 0.7207

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0093

Daily control level: 0.7425



GOLD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: UP

Target 1: 1124.58

Target 2: 1092.46

Projected range in ATR’s: 16.064

Daily control level: 1077.00



OIL



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 51.57

Target 2: 48.21

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.678

Daily control level: 55.50



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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 13.08.2015



This evening the Greek Parliament is due to assemble for an emergency session to approve the country’s third bailout agreement, concluded with the international creditors on Tuesday. The timing of the event is still uncertain.

The activation of the deal will mean the Greece will be giving most of its sovereignty to the creditors, represented by the IMF, the ECB and the European Commission.

The 29 pages of the new agreement, among the others, quotes the following: “The (Greek) government commits to consult and agree with the European commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund on all actions relevant for the achievement of the objectives of the memorandum of understanding before these are finalised and legally adopted.”

The arrangement will also induce the major reforms in pension and taxation systems, as well as in health and welfare sectors. Privatizations of the public properties will be extended significantly.

Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras remains positive that the deal will be approved, however, he has certain doubts whether all eurozone members will agree to it.

“Despite the obstacles that some are trying to put before us, I’m optimistic we will reach the agreement and loan support from the European mechanism, which will put a final end to economic uncertainty,” Tsipras was quoted referring to the 86 billion euro deal during a visit to the Ministry of economics.

Germany, among a few more European states, remains sceptical regarding the matter. Even though it considers the deal goes in the right direction it is not yet ready to say whether it was prepared for a vote in the Bundestag.

Before the deal goes to Bundestag, it has to be approved by the Greek Parliament, which should be completed by the early hours of the Friday morning. As the ruling party Syriza has the opposition party support, the confidence that the bill will pass is very high.

The approval of the deal will likely to bring the dissolution of the Syriza and forming a new party as soon as this autumn since the disagreements within the party are widening. Syriza MP Costas Isichos said the vote would lead to an “immediate divorce.”

“We are facing major political developments where the ‘no’ front will take shape,” he continued, referring to the outcome of last month’s referendum on austerity measures.



EURUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: UP

Target 1: 1.1272

Target 2: 1.1042

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0115

Daily control level: 1.0980



GBPUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Range

Target 1: 1.5713

Target 2: 1.5507

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0103

Daily control level: 1.5670



USDJPY



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Range

Target 1: 124.96

Target 2: 123.44

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.7588

Daily control level: 123.80



USDCHF



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.9848

Target 2: 0.9658

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0095

Daily control level: 0.9710



USDCAD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Range

Target 1: 1.3099

Target 2: 1.2855

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0122

Daily control level: 1.2910



AUDUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 0.7472

Target 2: 0.7282

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0095

Daily control level: 0.7425




GOLD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1141.00

Target 2: 1110.16

Projected range in ATR’s: 15.42

Daily control level: 1077.00



OIL



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 52.00

Target 2: 48.68

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.6587

Daily control level: 55.50





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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 14.08.2015


Greek Government vote on the third bailout package, which has finally taken place this morning, was approved by 222 votes to 64, with only 11 abstentions. Preceding that, however, there was a serious disunity in the Parliament.

“In angry exchanges, the conservative opposition rounded on the government, warning it not to take its support for granted. “If you want to provoke us – and for us to vote for it – you can’t have it both ways,” Vangelis Meimarakis, the leader of the New Democracy party told finance minister Euclid Tsakalotos” – reported by the watchers of the Greek debates.

“On the left, former energy minister Panayiotis Lafazanis, who leads a rebel bloc of around a quarter of Syriza’s 149 MPs, pledged to “smash the eurozone dictatorship”, while in her concluding pre-vote remarks, Konstantopoulou announced: “I am not going to support the prime minister anymore.”

Looking at the rest of the market, the German economy, the largest in the European Union, expanded less than forecasted as the morning release of the country’s preliminary quarterly GDP revealed. The GDP figure rose to mere 0.4% instead of projected 0.5%. It was also significantly lower than the 0.7% number of the May’s release. The Greek crisis and China’s turmoil have both played a substantial role in the decreasing global demand.

French Preliminary GDP release had a similar outcome with the number coming to 0.0% instead of 0.2% increase. This was a large drop comparing to the May publication when the number stood at 0.7% after the revision.

Later this afternoon, at 1:30 pm CET, we will see the release of the monthly Canadian Manufacturing Sales number, which represents the change in the total value of sales made by manufacturers. This is one of the leading indicators of the economic health, as manufacturing industry is fast affected by the market circumstances and is an early indicator of hiring, investment and spending. This time the number is projected to expand to 2.3% comparing to the 0.1% of last month.

At the same time, there will be monthly the US Producer Price Index will be published. PPI is a weighted index of the wholesale prices and shows trend within the US physical goods-producing industries such as manufacturing and commodities market and is therefore, a leading indicator of the country’s inflation. This time PPI is expected to decrease to 0.1% from the 0.4% figure published last month.

The US Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment Index will close the economic news week at 3:00 pm. Financial confidence is an important component of the consumer spending, which account for a major part of a country’s economic activity. The figure is based on the survey of about 500 respondents, rating the relative present and future economic conditions. This month the index is projected to increase from 93.1 to 93.5 mark.



EURUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.1256

Target 2: 1.1040

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0108

Daily control level: 1.0980





GBPUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Range

Target 1: 1.5709

Target 2: 1.5507

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0101

Daily control level: 1.5670



USDJPY



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Range

Target 1: 124.96

Target 2: 123.44

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.7588

Daily control level: 123.80



USDCHF



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.9857

Target 2: 0.9667

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0095

Daily control level: 0.9710



USDCAD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Range

Target 1: 1.3184

Target 2: 1.2934

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0125

Daily control level: 1.2910



AUDUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 0.7452

Target 2: 0.7262

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0095

Daily control level: 0.7425



GOLD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1129.90

Target 2: 1100.12

Projected range in ATR’s: 14.89

Daily control level: 1077.00





OIL



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 51.20

Target 2: 47.96

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.6214

Daily control level: 55.50





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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 17.08.2015



Friday’s positive US data helped the US Dollar Index to rebound from the recent decline, when the currency was trading at the four-week low, below 96.00 last week.

The monthly Producer Price Index, representing the change in the price of finished goods and services sold by producers and leading indicator of the consumer inflation, came to 0.2%, higher than projected 0.1%.

Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment has declined for the second consecutive month, published at 92.9, comparing to the expected 93.5 figure. Financial confidence is of  crucial importance to the consumer spending and is accounting for the majority of economic activity. The overall trend for the data is on the rise since the middle of 2011.

This morning Asian shares continued on the way down as Chinese market slump is still pressuring the global marketplace. Despite the fact that the Yuan has stabilized for the last number of days, underlining concerns regarding weaker Chinese economy and possibility of the further Yuan depreciation is one of the substantial obstacles for the market to recover.

Last week’s China’s currency devaluation caused the investors to consider other markets such as Turkey and Malaysia, with the both countries undergoing political crises at the moment.

Oil prices dropped to the six-year low as more oil rigs were opened last week. This has put an additional weight on the oil-export depending economies. USDCAD is nearing to retest 11-year low of  1.3210 it reached a week ago. Australian Dollar has also rebounded lower and is now trading around 0.7350 level, close to the AUDUSD six-year low of 0.7210.

With the markets weakening globally, it will probably add a further boost to the US currency, as for now it is considered a “safe heaven” investment, with so many markets facing high volatility and unpredictability. In addition, the potential interest rate hike later this year, adds strength to the major world reserve currency.

Today proves to be a rather quiet day with regards to the economic news releases. Adding that it is also the middle of the holiday’s month, no major market moves are expected to occur today.




EURUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Range

Target 1: 1.1226

Target 2: 1.1006

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0110

Daily control level: 1.1210




GBPUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Range

Target 1: 1.5751

Target 2: 1.5551

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0100

Daily control level: 1.5670





USDJPY



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Range

Target 1: 124.93

Target 2: 123.51

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.7129

Daily control level: 125.25





USDCHF



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.9843

Target 2: 0.9661

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0091

Daily control level: 0.9710



USDCAD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Range

Target 1: 1.3213

Target 2: 1.2967

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0123

Daily control level: 1.2910



AUDUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 0.7465

Target 2: 0.7283

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0095

Daily control level: 0.7425



GOLD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1129.59

Target 2: 1099.39

Projected range in ATR’s: 15.10

Daily control level: 1077.00



OIL



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 50.34

Target 2: 47.20

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.5664

Daily control level: 55.50


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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 18.08.2015



This morning at 9:30 am London time, the Office for National Statistics we will release the UK Consumer Price Index, which it is considered a benchmark for the U.K. economy inflation gauge as it  measures the change in the goods and services purchased by the consumers.

The CPI is used for the Bank of England inflation target, which is currently set at 2%. The inflation rate is significant to a currency valuation because the rising consumer prices lead to the rising country’s interest rate.

The index inspects the weighted average of prices of a given basket, compounded out of consumer goods and services, which include items such food, medical services and transportation. The CPI is calculated by averaging the prices of the basket items, before categorising them by their importance.

The CPI number was steadily declining since the second half of 2011, when inflation hit the top of 5.2% in July. Last March the United Kingdom has officially entered “no growth zone” with the release coming to 0.0% for the first time in the index history. The May release disappointed the markets even further when it was published at -0.1%, entering the phase of deflation and prolonging the long-awaited interest rate hike further.

Even though since then the data is steadily fluctuating between -0.1% to 0.1%, the analysts expect the inflation indicator to drop even lower in the near future.

The British economy however still remains less susceptible to the economic slowdown than the rest of its European neighbours, since keeping own currency allows UK for more freedom in market adjustments as well as to some extend prevents the spread of contagion from the destabilized recently Eurozone.

GBPUSD is fluctuating in 1.5670- 1.5460 range for the fifth consecutive week after it reconfirmed the breach of the upward trendline in the middle of July. The CPI is projected to come out without changes at 0.0%, with the numbers coming lower than projected could likely have a weakening effect on the British Pound.



EURUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Range

Target 1: 1.1181

Target 2: 1.0971

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0105

Daily control level: 1.1210



GBPUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Range

Target 1: 1.5681

Target 2: 1.5483

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0099

Daily control level: 1.5670





USDJPY



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Range

Target 1: 125.05

Target 2: 123.71

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.6740

Daily control level: 125.25





USDCHF



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.9876

Target 2: 0.9700

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0088

Daily control level: 0.9710




USDCAD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Range

Target 1: 1.3198

Target 2: 1.2958

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0120

Daily control level: 1.2910



AUDUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 0.7461

Target 2: 0.7281

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0090

Daily control level: 0.7425




GOLD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1132.12

Target 2: 1102.72

Projected range in ATR’s: 14.70

Daily control level: 1077.00







OIL



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 50.23

Target 2: 47.23

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.5007

Daily control level: 55.50




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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 19.08.2015



Asian shares dropped to two-year low this morning, as Chinese stock market continues to decline, following last week’s yuan devaluation. Fears about the stability of the China’s economy influenced a further sell-off with Shanghai Composite Index sliding 6.1%.

In a stabilization attempt, yesterday China’s Central bank injected 120 Billion yuan into the market, which was largest since January 2014 when the bank added 150 billion yuan liquidity through 14-day repos.

However, market confidence declined further, when the China’s “national team”, the government assigned group, which was buying stocks to support the market, has reduced its operations, causing the concerns that the government is withdrawing its support.

“China’s securities regulator said late last week that the market had normalised and the government would allow market forces to play a bigger role in determining stock prices” – Reuters reports.

The slowdown of the China’s economy has substantially weakened commodity prices. Copper value, for example, slid to six-year low, breaking the psychological level of 5.000 US dollars per tonne and now trading below it.

Brent price declined to more than a five-month low of 48.44 yesterday, continuing the downward trend it set at the end of the June last year.

Presently the main concerns of the global investors are the Chinese economy and the US interest rate hike, which is expected to be introduced by the end of this year including the possibility of this action as early as the following month.

Following last week yuan devaluation and current market turmoil, there are fears that the crisis will spread to the other economies, causing pressure even on the US-denominated debt.

The emerging economies markets were hit the hardest when MSCI emerging markets index dropped to more than 20%, its lowest level since 2011. The number of the emerging markets currencies are facing the liquidity outflow.

The investments are being transferred to the US dollar, currently the market’s “safe heaven”, with the prospects of the nearing interest rate hike adding stability to the major world’s reserve currency.

The US S&P 500 however, slid to 0.26% yesterday. The September’s futures of the UK’s FTSE 100 have also opened lower this morning after the trend formed a lower high last week.

Gold, conversely, is trading higher currently targeting to retest last week’s high of 1127.00, after it reconfirmed the breach of the downward trend channel last Wednesday.



EURUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Range

Target 1: 1.1121

Target 2: 1.0918

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0105

Daily control level: 1.1210





GBPUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.5763

Target 2: 1.5553

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0105

Daily control level: 1.5670



USDJPY



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Range

Target 1: 125.04

Target 2: 123.74

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.6500

Daily control level: 125.25






USDCHF



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Range

Target 1: 0.9857

Target 2: 0.9683

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0087

Daily control level: 0.9710


USDCAD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Range

Target 1: 1.3176

Target 2: 1.2938

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0120

Daily control level: 1.2910




AUDUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 0.7425

Target 2: 0.7245

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0090

Daily control level: 0.7425





GOLD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1132.24

Target 2: 1102.84

Projected range in ATR’s: 14.70

Daily control level: 1077.00


OIL



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 50.19

Target 2: 47.21

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.4900

Daily control level: 55.50


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