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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 07.07.2015



Sunday’s surprising news that the Greek public had voted “No” in the Greek referendum was followed on Monday by the news that the combative Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis had resigned his position.

Did he go under his own free will or was he pushed? For certain the European Finance Ministers and especially the German Wolfgang Schäuble will be relieved to see him go. However Varoufakis was good value and it is a shame that his expressive language and cool demeanour will no longer be a feature of the European scene.

Varoufakis has been replaced by the academic Euclid Tsakalotos as the Minister of Finance. Mr. Tsakalotos is much more softly spoken and measured in his comments when compared to his predecessor. However under that mild demeanour and English accent is another strong and intelligent mind. There is no doubt that after Varoufakis had done his job of softening up the Europeans, it is now the job of Tsakalotos to lower the tone but at the same time negotiate hard.

Mr. Tsakalotos will need to use all his skills and experience to bring about a compromise solution to the Greek debt crisis. The Greek Prime Minister will be hoping too that Tsakalotos could reinstate the burnt bridges and bring back the trust that was lost with the announcement of the referendum.

The Greek Premier Alexis Tsipras has a view that the Greek referendum victory has strengthen his negotiating hand. The Greek public and the bosses of the Greek banks are hoping that he can deliver on his promise to construct and agree on a compromise formula over the next few days.

However it is still very uncertain if the Europeans will agree. As always the head of the Eurogroup Jeroen Dijsselbloem has been dismissive of the Greek side. The French side however has been more conciliatory in their position. What is of greater concern is an apparent hardening of the position of the German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

Europe is now becoming increasingly divided. One side being resigned or actually encouraging the Greek to take a decision and leave the Euro area. On the other hand, Governments that fear for the consequences of a Grexit are concerned about the consequence could be if Greece finally and after 5 wasted years falls out of the Eurozone.

Although the Lehman’s debacle in balance sheet terms was roughly double the size of the current Greek debt, unraveling the after effects of a debt default and Grexit is still unclear. This is one of the key cards that the Greek Prime holds. It is his hope that the Europeans will therefore be forced to act so as to mitigate the unknown or likely consequences of Greece falling out of the Euro.

Furthermore if Greece ends up having no choice but to exit the Euro, the cost to the Europeans will be very high. Not only do European tax payers lose some Euro 330 billion but there will also be the longer term costs of shoring up the Euro area.

Once Greece exits the Euro area, the concept of the irrevocability of Eurozone membership ceases to exist. This will lead to added pressure on other periphery countries and puts at risk Portugal, Span and Italy.

Europe and by this I mean the Germans will be forced to shore up the defenses so that contagion does not bring other countries down. The cost of further fiscal and banking union will dwarf the cost of keeping Greece in the Euro.

One final factor that needs to be addressed is that of Geo-politics. Greece is at the frontier of Europe’s eastern border. The neighbourhood that Greece resides in is far from stable. An exit from the Euro will leave a key NATO country exposed and without allies in the region. The concern will be that a European rejection will send Greece into the arms of the Russian bear.

There has been some good news over the past few days in that all Greek political parties have backed any agreement that will be reached in Brussels. This eases the issue of implementation.

It is now time for Europe to grasp the key issue of solidarity. The Euro was a flawed creation and continues to be a single currency that is not fit for purpose. It is time that the Euro’s deficiencies are recognized and fixes implemented for the sake of all of Europe’s citizens.


EURUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.1174

Target 2: 1.0936

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0119

Daily control level: 1.1125








GBPUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.5701

Target 2: 1.5505

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0098

Daily control level: 1.5650






USDJPY



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 123.89

Target 2: 121.72

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.83

Daily control level: 123.00







USDCHF



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.9523

Target 2: 0.9325

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0099

Daily control level: 0.9385








USDCAD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.2748

Target 2: 1.2550

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0099

Daily control level: 1.2530







AUDUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 0.7857

Target 2: 0.7411

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0088

Daily control level: 0.7550







GOLD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1181.13

Target 2: 1158.93

Projected range in ATR’s: 11.10

Daily control level: 1162.70








OIL



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 54.35

Target 2: 51.13

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.61

Daily control level: 56.65





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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 09.07.2015




With the deadline looming for the Greek debt proposal due no later than tomorrow morning and with crucial European summits due to take place over the weekend the level of uncertainty and anxiety continues to blanket Greece.

This uncertainty has forced the Greek Government to extend the limit of EUR 60 a day ATM allowance until Monday. After Monday, the fate of the Greek people is in the hands of European and Greek politicians who have shown themselves incapable of making correct decisions.

The move to extend the banking restrictions follows on from the decision by the European Central Bank to put on hold any further Emergency Liquidity Assistance until the debt crisis is resolved.

With the Greek Prime Minister saying that he will present plans on Thursday to his European partners the end game of this phase of the Greek crisis is now very close.
With the creditor’s position now hardening a failure of Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras to take into account the gravity of the situation will lead to dire consequences and immediate hardship for the Greek nation.

One can only assume that a failure to broker a compromise solution after what has been 5 wasted and fruitless months of negotiations is that Alexis Tsipras never had an intention of striking a deal. The bottom line is the Greek Premier wanted from the outset is total European capitulation or a return to the Drachma.

This may be a very harsh view. However the manner of the negotiation which can be summed up as a win or bust strategy was never going to work. There was just too much resistance within the European Union to what they saw a radical left Government that was intent to turn around the order of things.

The Europeans made mistakes too. The original sin was of course the creation of a Frankenstein currency that destroyed the economies of the periphery European nations. The only nation to really benefit from the creation of the Euro was Germany which took the opportunity of the cheap single currency to export its way out of recession at the expense of Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, Spain, aka the PIIGS.

The debt deal that was constructed by the creditors was designed not to assist Greece but was engineered with the assistance of the IMF had only one aim in mind. That was to get the German and French banks off the hook.

There was no attempt to help the Greek people and Greek business to grow themselves out of the mess that corrupt and inept politicians in partnership with the foreign banks had got the country into.

There is a need of course to reform the public sector and pension system but Greece is a country that has no safety net. The austerity that was imposed on the country only damaged the Greek public. The German and French bankers and the leaders of the political elite of the PASOK and Nea Democratia party continue to live their life of privilege as they enjoyed their lavish villas and drive around in their high performance German automobiles.

The election victory that SYRIZA achieved some 5 months back was inevitable as the Greek public had enough of the wasted opportunities of its political elite. When Tsipras took power, he proclaimed that reform was at the centre of his agenda. However evidence of this is nowhere to be seen.

My real concern is not for Greek or European politicians but for the tax payers of Europe who have paid for the decisions and mistakes made in their name. Without doubt there is a need for change in Europe. I just hope that the politicians either side of this current divide recognize that they have an obligation to Europe’s citizens to get us out of this mess.
I personal would like nothing more but never have to write about this subject again as it has become rather tedious.

I therefore urge all sides to compromise enough to get us through to Monday. Once there, the real work of reforming Europe begins.



EURUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.1203

Target 2: 1.0949

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0127

Daily control level: 1.0900






GBPUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.5469

Target 2: 1.5249

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0110

Daily control level: 1.5650







USDJPY



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 121.67

Target 2: 119.71

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.98

Daily control level: 123.00







USDCHF



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.9554

Target 2: 0.9350

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0102

Daily control level: 0.9385






USDCAD




The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.2846

Target 2: 1.2644

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0101

Daily control level: 1.2675









AUDUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.7518

Target 2: 0.7338

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0090

Daily control level: 0.7370






GOLD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1170.80

Target 2: 1145.88

Projected range in ATR’s: 12.46

Daily control level: 1175.30





OIL



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 53.59

Target 2: 50.05

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.77

Daily control level: 54.00






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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 10.07.2015


Officials at the Greek Finance Ministry worked late into the night to put together a proposal that could be presented to its partners in the Eurozone and the IMF.
Assistance in the preparation of the document was given by civil servants from the French Ministry of Finance. This assistance has highlighted the positive and very pro Greek stance the French Government has taken.

The French and to a lesser extent the Italian Governments have been more conciliatory than their German partners towards the Greek Government. One is reminded from a “good cop, bad cop” scenario when one views the relationship France and Germany have to Greece. However Fräulein Merkel may disagree and say that all the German Government was doing was giving the Greek Government a taste of reality through a lot of tough love.

With news being leaked of the contents of the referendum, one will be very surprised to hear that what the Greek Premier Alexis Tsipras is now offering and what was signed off by the Greek Government very much resembles what the creditors had put on the table before.

In fact, the Greek Proposal sets out much harsher conditions in many areas with an increase of austerity from EUR 8 to 13 billion. That the Greek Government has been the starting point of 5 months of market turmoil and that has seen its economy nose dive, leaving the Greek people in a state of perpetual hardship does lead me to ask a couple of pertinent questions.

Why on earth did the Greek Government waste all that time in negotiating and why was a contentious referendum staged at a huge cost only for the democratic vote of the people to be ignored.

Not one for conspiracy theories but my opinion is that all that has gone on before was a theatrical show for the citizens of the European Union. The show was staged to sensitize the voting and tax paying public of this Union to the idea that reform is needed.
Conflict always creates chaos. However, conflict can also be a strong catalyst for change and reform. The Greek fiasco came at a time when the vulnerabilities of the Euro project became more and more apparent.

The Greek debt crisis was that catalyst and at the same time the ultimate test of the Euro which highlighted these imbalances and negative economic effects. It can be hoped that work will now begin that plugs the gaps and fixes the problems which the single currency creates.

Even if an agreement is signed off over the weekend, the Greek economy will be in for a rough couple of years. However with an appropriate amount of debt relief that brings the country’s obligations within manageable and viable levels we may just see the Greek economy in a few years’ time that is comprehensively reformed and one of the most modern with the European Union.

As such this is a template for two much bigger projects. These are France and Italy. Both countries are in drastic need of reform. The benefit of the Greek issue has put European reform on the agenda. It is to be seen if the Europeans are courageous enough not to squander this opportunity.

So how does all this leave Greece? Yesterday I wrote that I viewed the events of the past week as an orchestrated attempt by the Greek SYRIZA Government to trigger a Grexit. Proof of this would be the presentation of a plan which would have been rejected out of hand.

That Alexis Tsipras from what early reports indicate has put forward an acceptable proposal shows that he is serious about getting a deal signed off. Is the Greek Prime Minister the biggest bluffer in the history of poker? Was his hand about to be called and did he fold in the knowledge that he could not win? It is not the simple.

What Tsipras and recently resigned Finance Minister Yianis Varoufakis achieved was to get the debate about Greek debt and European debt sustainability finally on the table. Moreover, they have linked this to one important issue. How can a country reform itself without destroying an economy?

Furthermore, Alexis Tsipras has also driven a wedge that has split the creditors into two groups. One being the IMF, France and in the background Italy which wants to see debt viability as a key economic necessity and the other hand we have the Germans who keep banging the drum for austerity.

There have also been splits elsewhere, most notably in Greece. The divide in the Greek public was shown during the recent referendum campaign.  However what is of greater concern is the rapture with the ruling SYRIZA party. The split will be apparent today when the Greek Parliament votes on the legislation that ties this country’s future to the Euro.

Today’s story is not over just yet.



EURUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.1160

Target 2: 1.0900

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0130

Daily control level: 1.0990








GBPUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.5488

Target 2: 1.5268

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0110

Daily control level: 1.5350








USDJPY



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 122.32

Target 2: 120.33

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.99

Daily control level: 120.40






USDCHF



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 0.9581

Target 2: 0.9631

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0107

Daily control level: 0.9500







USDCAD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.2802

Target 2: 1.2606

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0098

Daily control level: 1.2675









AUDUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.7535

Target 2: 0.7357

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0089

Daily control level: 0.7370






GOLD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1171.16

Target 2: 1147.88

Projected range in ATR’s: 11.64

Daily control level: 1175.30








OIL



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 54.32

Target 2: 50.66

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.83

Daily control level: 54.00






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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 13.07.2015



Talks between European leaders lasted some 15 hours as an attempt was made to solve the Gordian Knot that is the Greek Financial crisis.

The Greek Prime Minister is making desperate attempts to stave off his countries bankruptcy, however, the group of countries led by Germany and Finland have adopted a very harsh bargaining position. The Greek Government is being told to either ditch its principles or leaves the Euro.

Alexis Tsipras must be feeling a great deal of strain this morning and it is obvious that this kind of pressure would make the best of us buckle under the pressure.

The referendum victory of the “No” campaign did give the Greek Government a positive momentum. However, the mood soon changed as the hard line that the Europeans took left the Greek Government split and the Greek public deflated.

With the German Chancellor telling reporters that she simply does not trust this Greek Government to stick to any agreement, it is hard to see how Alexis Tsipras can keep his job. Especially as back home in Greece he called an unnecessary referendum on austerity but then promptly decided to ignore the people’s vote. As for the SYRIZA party, there is a high probability that the internal conflict that was generated by the ongoing discussions between Greece and the countries creditors could see this alliance of the radical left fracture and break up.

From a backdrop of haemorrhaging support at home and outright opposition from abroad, the Greek Prime Minister now has to push through one of the most contentious pieces of legislation that has ever been passed by the Greek Parliament.

What the Europeans are asking from the Greek Government is a total surrender. Only by agreeing to the European demands can Alexis Tsipras hope to receive some Euro 80 to 85 billion from the Europeans. Without this new third bailout, the Greek Government will be cut adrift and have no choice but to leave the Euro area.

Unfortunately for a long time successive Greek Governments have shied away from taking the harsh decisions which were needed to reform the country’s economy. It is very ironic that the Europeans and the IMF will now call upon a Greek Prime Minister who belongs to the radical left of the political spectrum to be their instrument to inflict austerity and with it misery and pain onto the citizens of his country.

The Europeans and namely the German Chancellor Angela Merkel has shown no mercy to the Greece. Not only does the German and European Governments want legislation passed by Wednesday but they also require constant oversight that the Greeks are sticking to the word of the law.

To drive home their message, the Europeans have also told the SYRIZA Government to reverse legislation that it passed on the outset of taking power. This includes once again closing down the state-run Greek national television station and the sacking of 4,000 public workers. The most notable symbol of these sackings would be state cleaners that had been made redundant by the previous administration.

As I come the end of this it is now reported that a deal on Greece has been agreed. Is this a good deal for Greece and Europe. Only time will tell.



EURUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.1288

Target 2: 1.1032

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0128

Daily control level: 1.1200






GBPUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.5623

Target 2: 1.5399

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0112

Daily control level: 1.5350







USDJPY



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 123.77

Target 2: 121.65

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.06

Daily control level: 122.00







USDCHF



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.9489

Target 2: 0.9277

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0106

Daily control level: 0.9320







USDCAD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.2761

Target 2: 1.2555

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0103

Daily control level: 1.2675







AUDUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.7531

Target 2: 0.7351

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0090

Daily control level: 0.7400






GOLD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1174.86

Target 2: 1151.50

Projected range in ATR’s: 11.68

Daily control level: 1168.00








OIL



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 54.01

Target 2: 50.31

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.85

Daily control level: 51.00






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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 14.07.2015




The Greek Prime Minister must be in a lonely place this morning. After caving into the demands of the countries creditors, Alexis Tsipras now has to sell the plan to the Greek Parliament.

The package of additional aid will only add to the Greek debt pile. This additional debt does have a very high price as the Greek Government has to implement a reform and austerity package that will hit the ordinary working Greek citizen very hard.

The reforms to be fair are needed and overdue. For some five years, successive Greek Governments had failed to pass legislation. This legislation was linked to the two prior agreed bailouts.

The failure to have these reforms implemented has wasted 5 precious years. This was due to nothing more than the cowardice of the previous Greek administrations who did not have the fortitude to finish the job.

Now, it is left to Alexis Tsipras, the once poster boy of the radical left of Greek politics to push through Parliament 5 years of reforms in two days of business.

I am all for reform, Greece is in need of a radical upgrade. However, the manner by which these reforms were imposed on a country does leave a bitter taste in one’s mouth.

The German Government flanked by the Dutch, Fins, Slovaks and Lithuanians took a very harsh and somewhat aggressive stance.

Any idea of European solidarity was ignored as the North European Nations put the pressure on the Greek leadership. With the likes of the Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico saying that he would show Greece “No mercy” one has to question if this European project is one that is worth fighting for.

It would appear the United Kingdom made the correct choice by electing to choose sovereignty over the financial straight jacket that the European single currency imposes.

Greece made a mistake by choosing to join what is currently a failed Euro project. The Greek political leadership early in the last decade decided to fudge their way into the single currency.

Although there were instant rewards of rapid growth, the catalyst of the new found prosperity was built on debt. When the debt became unsustainable the Greek economy collapsed with tragic consequences.

This leads us to the events of the coming week. Alexis Tsipras now has to force through the Greek Parliament legislation that a few days ago he would have never contemplated.

That the Greek Prime Minister has totally ignored the will of the Greek people who voted in a referendum against further austerity is unjust and a travesty of democracy.

Through its actions, the Greek Government crippled the banking system. With the banks no longer functioning the economy is left in limbo. The cost an economy closing down for the best part of 3 weeks is astronomical.

To take the risk and challenge the countries creditors but them to meekly capitulate once the pressure came puts a big question mark over the current Greek Prime Minister.

Is Alexis Tsipras the safe pair of hands Greece needs? Or is he at best inexperienced or at worst a gambler?

Once the Parliament has the final say on the bill and the bailout is approved by all the national governments of the Eurozone, the question is who in Greece should ensure that the agreed plan is implemented.

Do the creditors and the Greek public give Alexis Tsipras a second chance or does Greece need new leadership?

I think the idea of an experienced hand taking charge and becoming the Greek Prime Minister would be a mistake. Greece needs to look forward and not backward.

The Greek Government will also be constrained by what it can and cannot do as it has to function under very strict oversight.

Therefore, the idea of causing fresh political upheaval by calling for elections would be a mistake.

It would be far better that Alexis Tsipras seeks out members of the opposition who he could work with and form a national unity Government.

Is there any realistic alternative?



EURUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.1133

Target 2: 1.0867

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0133

Daily control level: 1.1200






GBPUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour:  Up

Target 1: 1.5593

Target 2: 1.5377

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0108

Daily control level: 1.5350









USDJPY



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 124.50

Target 2: 122.38

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.06

Daily control level: 122.00







USDCHF



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.9637

Target 2: 0.9425

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0106

Daily control level: 0.9320









USDCAD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.2765

Target 2: 1.2551

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0107

Daily control level: 1.2675







AUDUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.7495

Target 2: 0.7315

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0090

Daily control level: 0.7400






GOLD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1169.03

Target 2: 1145.97

Projected range in ATR’s: 11.53

Daily control level: 1168.00







OIL



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 53.82

Target 2: 50.16

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.83

Daily control level: 51.00






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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 15.07.2015



The Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras has overnight found an unlikely friendly voice in the form of the International Monetary Fund.

The IMF has voiced concern over the levels of the Greek Public debt and said the outstanding obligations had become “highly unsustainable”.

According to the IMF the level of Greek public debt would over the next two years reach an astronomical figure of some 200% of GDP.

The IMF went on further to say that the optimistic projections of achieving a budget surplus of 3.5% of GDP was not achievable.

The European Union has given the Greek Government a stark choice. Either pass draconian legislation or be forced to leave the Eurozone.

Although reforms are needed, the IMF claims that without any form of debt forgiveness it would be impossible for the Greek economy to grow sufficiently so as to drag the country out of what has become an economic downturn that can only be described as a tragic depression.

The German Government has insisted that the IMF oversee the implementation of these reforms. What is farcical is that the European Union’s enforcer has come out so vehemently against a plan which it says will do more harm than good.

The reforms need to happen as only through radical change can the Greek economy transform itself from the sick man of Europe into a thriving tiger of the Balkans.
What the European’s have proposed, however, is not a vision for future Greek growth but for financial slavery is.

The German Government all too well knows the consequences of the imposition of harsh economic and vindictive penalties on a country.

The German nation suffered horribly after the First World War due to the harsh terms of surrender imposed by the victorious allies. This wrong was only put right after a Second World War when the allies this time forgave the German debt.

Greece is located at the crossroads of Asia and Europe and the focal point of the Balkans. Does the German Government really believe that the imposition of such draconian measures on Greek people will add to political stability at a time when there are fires burning in North Africa, Middle East and the Ukraine?

Greece will eventually recover. The Greek people are a resilient bunch. Under the right conditions, their entrepreneurial spirit helps them excel in business. Greek immigrant populations in the United Kingdom, Germany, USA and Australia have created businesses and wealth. It can only be hoped that if the right conditions exist, the Greek nation will drag themselves out of this abyss into an era of new prosperity.

The road back however will be long and painful.



EURUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.1143

Target 2: 1.0873

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0135

Daily control level: 1.1080






GBPUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.5751

Target 2: 1.5519

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0116

Daily control level: 1.5450







USDJPY



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 124.46

Target 2: 122.34

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.06

Daily control level: 123.00






USDCHF



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.9554

Target 2: 0.9340

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0107

Daily control level: 0.9400









USDCAD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.2824

Target 2: 1.2628

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0098

Daily control level: 1.2675







AUDUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.7543

Target 2: 0.7359

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0092

Daily control level: 0.7400







GOLD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1166.36

Target 2: 1143.50

Projected range in ATR’s: 11.43

Daily control level: 1160.00









OIL



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 55.29

Target 2: 51.49

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.90

Daily control level: 51.00






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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 16.07.2015



Greek members of Parliament talked late into the night in what turned out at times to be a strongly contested debate over the country’s much-maligned debt deal.

Although the vote to pass the legislation was never in doubt the Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras had concerns that the fallout of his humiliating climb down would fracture and fragment the ruling SYRIZA party.

As expected the rupture within SYRIZA was large with many SYRIZA MP’s from the far left platform of the Party voting against the Governments legislation.

The most outspoken of the critics are Zoi Konstantopoulou who is the Speaker of the Greek Parliament and the former Finance Minister, Yianis Varoufakis.  They were joined by other leading SYRIZA members who showed their contempt for the legislation by voting against it.

With SYRIZA now seemingly split between the moderates and radical left factions, Alexis Tsipras will now have to battle to hold is political party together. What remains of SYRIZA must be fearful of the political future of their party.

Tsipras was always the dominating force of the party. Therefore, if the Greek Prime Minister decides that he cannot go on in office and implement legislation that he clearly dislikes there is a strong possibility that the raptures in SYRIZA will force upon it a terminal decline.

The agreement that was reached in Brussels has been given a frosty reception both in Greece and by the International Monetary Fund. It is now becoming the acceptable view that some sort of debt adjustment must be made that will give the Greek economy space and time to breath and grow. However, the German Government and their friends within the European Union have so far blocked such a move.

This stance now means that Alexis Tsipras must take ownership of the legislation and implement it in its entirety in the face of stiff internal opposition. For Alexis Tsipras to be successful in his goal he will need to build bridges within the Greek Parliament with his foes in the New Democracy and PASOK political parties.

With a national unity Government in place the implementation of the much-needed reforms will be smoother as the administration will be able to marginalize the more extreme elements of the politics that can be found to the left and right of the political spectrum.



EURUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.1083

Target 2: 1.0807

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0138

Daily control level: 1.1050










GBPUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.5752

Target 2: 1.5516

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0118

Daily control level: 1.5575







USDJPY



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 124.81

Target 2: 122.71

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.05

Daily control level: 123.00









USDCHF



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.9625

Target 2: 0.9407

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0109

Daily control level: 0.9400








USDCAD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.3040

Target 2: 1.2844

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0098

Daily control level: 1.2675







AUDUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 0.7471

Target 2: 0.7283

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0094

Daily control level: 0.7490






GOLD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1159.09

Target 2: 1135.57

Projected range in ATR’s: 11.76

Daily control level: 1160.00

   




OIL



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 55.29

Target 2: 51.49

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.90

Daily control level: 51.00







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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 17.07.2015



Today the German Bundestag will vote to approve the latest Greek bailout deal. The probability that the endorsement of 86 billion euro package will go through. However it is becoming harder to persuade German taxpayers that Greece is the country which is worth helping.

There is a growing opposition even in the Angela Merkel’s own party, which she will need to persuade for the bailout approval. With the European project under threat, Greece exiting the Union could cause a further domino effect.

After the Greek Parliament approved the new bailout terms on Thursday. Finland’s parliament followed the suit yesterday. Several other countries are expected to raise their voice on the subject within the next few days.

Greece is in urge to receive financial aid as due date for the 4.2 billion euro repayment to the European Central Bank is coming on Monday. In addition, the installment in arrears to IMF amounting to about 2 billion euro have to be repaid as soon as possible.

In the meantime, the European Central Bank has decided to raise interim emergency lending to the Greek Banks in order to keep them afloat. The doubts however remain whether the cash-strapped country will be able to fulfill its obligations under the new agreement.

International Monetary fund has also expressed its doubts regarding the subject, saying that unless significant haircuts on the Greek debt will occur, it will be impossible for the country to recover.

The Greek Finance Minister himself has constantly noted that he does not believe in the new bailout deal and signed it because there were no other options. He has consequently lost support within his SYRIZA party as well as of many Greek citizens, who felt betrayed by the minister not fulfilling his election promises and accepting further austerity measures, which some believe will suffocate the fragile Greek economy.

 

EURUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.0995

Target 2: 1.0753

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0121

Daily control level: 1.1050







GBPUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.5722

Target 2: 1.5488

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0117

Daily control level: 1.5575








USDJPY



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 125.10

Target 2: 123.18

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.9641

Daily control level: 123.00








USDCHF



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.9676

Target 2: 0.9476

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0100

Daily control level: 0.9400







USDCAD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.2956

Target 2: 1.0105

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0105

Daily control level: 1.2675






AUDUSD





The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 0.7492

Target 2: 0.7314

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0089

Daily control level: 0.7490





GOLD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1156.55

Target 2: 1134.32

Projected range in ATR’s: 11.115

Daily control level: 1160.00






OIL



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 58.97

Target 2: 55.11

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.9314

Daily control level: 51.00







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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 20.07.2015



Gold has tumbled over 4% in the early hours of this week opening. The precious metal was trading below 1100.00 price for the first time during the past 5 years, reaching the low of 1086.00 per ounce.

The price slump was caused by the speculative selling in the Shanghai Stock exchange, therefore was not triggered by a simple price discovery. It is believed that a major hedge fund selling its holdings in the early Asian session.

“It was down to speculation here, someone taking advantage of the low liquidity environment,” Victor Thianpiriya, commodity strategist at ANZ, told CNBC. “Around 5 tonnes of gold was sold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange within the space of two minutes between 09:29 and 09:30. The daily volume last week was about 25 tonnes,” he observed. “It clearly wasn’t driven by fundamentals, because the U.S. dollar didn’t move at that time”.

Chinese Central Bank, one of the biggest gold buyers globally, has reported on Friday that its gold reserves were more than half of expected level. The Financial Times reported, the Central Bank’s Gold reserves were 1,658 tonnes (53.31 million fine troy ounces) as of the end of June, comparing to 1,054 tonnes reserves in April 2009.

Positive US economic data and the Federal Reserve continues affirmation that the US interest rate will be increased by the end of this year had added to the Gold price weakness, significantly influencing the reduction of the demand for the precious metal.

Analysts expect the price to continue to decline in the near future.



EURUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.0949

Target 2: 1.0713

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0118

Daily control level: 1.1050








GBPUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.5717

Target 2: 1.5481

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0118

Daily control level: 1.5575







USDJPY



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 124.94

Target 2: 123.10

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.9239

Daily control level: 123.00






USDCHF



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.9704

Target 2: 0.9512

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0096

Daily control level: 0.9400







USDCAD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.3072

Target 2: 1.2870

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0101

Daily control level: 1.2675







AUDUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 0.7473

Target 2: 0.7289

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0092

Daily control level: 0.7490







GOLD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1147.80

Target 2: 1118.74

Projected range in ATR’s: 14.53

Daily control level: 1160.00






OIL



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 59.00

Target 2: 55.28

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.8586

Daily control level: 51.00







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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 22.07.2015



Yesterday Greece’s sovereign credit rating was lifted by two notches as the agreement with creditors was reached and overdue debt to International Monetary Fund was settled. Standard & Poor’s rating agency has raised the Greece’s rating from CCC- to CCC+. The agency also revised country’s outlook from negative to stable.

The rating however still leaves the country in the junk status with the only optimism that it goes in the right direction.

The emergency bridging loan of 7 billion euro Greece has received last week with subsequent settling of its debt obligations was one of the reasons for the rating increase. In addition, a promise of the new three-year bailout deal has convinced the S&P that “its default on its stock of commercial debt is no longer inevitable” within the next 12 months.

According to the agency the possibility of the Greece exiting Eurozone has now fallen to below 50%, with the risks high still.

On Monday the Greek banks have begun operations after being closed for three weeks. The same day the country met 4.2 billion Euro deadline to the European Central Bank as well as settled 2 billion euro to International Monetary Fund. The payment of 700 million euro interest was also settled with its creditors.

In the return for the bailout aid, Greece has agreed to implement further austerity measures among which are tax increases and spending reduction. In addition, a massive sale of the state assets to the private investors should be put into effect.

The new 86 billion euro agreement is still awaiting the approval by some of the European Members parliaments. It is expected that negotiations for the new program will be concluded within a month.

 

EURUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.0937

Target 2: 1.0711

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0113

Daily control level: 1.1050





GBPUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Range

Target 1: 1.5671

Target 2: 1.5445

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0113

Daily control level: 1.5575







USDJPY



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 125.04

Target 2: 123.26

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.8939

Daily control level: 123.00








USDCHF



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.9734

Target 2: 0.9556

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0089

Daily control level: 0.9400







USDCAD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.3069

Target 2: 1.2875

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0097

Daily control level: 1.2675







AUDUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 0.7457

Target 2: 0.7281

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0088

Daily control level: 0.7490







GOLD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1113.36

Target 2: 1083.74

Projected range in ATR’s: 14.81

Daily control level: 1160.00







OIL



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Range

Target 1: 58.40

Target 2: 54.76

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.8586

Daily control level: 51.00







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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 23.07.2015



This morning at 9:30 am London time, the U.K. Office for National Statistics will release the monthly Retail Sales figures.

This month the data is expected to rise further to 0.4%, comparing to 0.2% of the previous release. The retail sales advance is supported by the growth of the nation’s discretionary spending ability and also encouraged by the decline in the inflation levels. In addition, the earnings growth is picking up the pace which positively influences the consumer sentiment. It is currently at the highest levels since the economic crisis of 2009.

Should the release confirm or exceed the expectations that would likely give a further boost to the boost to the strengthening British Pound.

The current luck of stability in currencies and unpredictability of the stock market, could cause the investments to consider switching to the British Pound shortly, as it provides relative stability.

The Retail Sales indicator tracks a change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level. In order to have representative figures, the survey takes different business entities as a sample.

This data is released approximately twenty days after a month ends and plays a substantial role as an indicator of the economic activity within the United Kingdom. The consumer spending constitutes for the majority of a country’s economic activity, the announcement will likely to cause high market volatility of the GBP pairs.

 
EURUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.1047

Target 2: 1.0807

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0120

Daily control level: 1.1050



GBPUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Range

Target 1: 1.5724

Target 2: 1.5496

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0114

Daily control level: 1.5575







USDJPY



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 123.83

Target 2: 123.05

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.8887

Daily control level: 123.00








USDCHF



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.9687

Target 2: 0.9505

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0091

Daily control level: 0.9400






USDCAD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.3125

Target 2: 1.2925

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0086

Daily control level: 1.2675







AUDUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 0.7461

Target 2: 0.7289

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0086

Daily control level: 0.7490








GOLD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1109.65

Target 2: 1079.27

Projected range in ATR’s: 15.186

Daily control level: 1160.00






OIL



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Range

Target 1: 57.88

Target 2:  54.44

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.7200

Daily control level: 51.00





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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 24.07.2015



A preliminary estimate of China’s manufacturing activity has declined to 15-month low, which shows the world second biggest economy is undergoing a slowdown.

The Chinese Purchasing Managers index has slid to 48.2, comparing to the final reading of 49.4 in June. The PMI uses 100-point scale, with the numbers below 50 indicating the industry contraction. For China have been a case since December 2014, with only minor exception in February 2015, when the index has reached 50.1.

The rest of the China’s indexes, such as new orders, output and employment have all continued to shrink.

Concerns over the slowed economic growth in China have prompted policymakers to action. Despite of the several attempts by the People’s Bank of China of the interest rates cuts, with the latest at the end of last month, the situation has not improved much still.

“We think that recent policy easing has yet to fully feed through into stronger economic activity and expect policymakers to respond to signs of weakness by stepping up support in order to prevent growth from slipping much further this year,” Julian Evans-Pritchard of Capital Economics said.

Australia, as a result, has seen an immediate decline of its currency, with the Aussie hitting 0.7266 low against the US Dollar this morning, the lowest since 2009. China is Australia largest export market for the commodities.

The general demand for the commodities especially such as oil, metals continues to decline sharply.

Bloomberg commodity index was trading at all times low, reaching 94.07 mark yesterday, comparing to just below 140.00 one year ago.

Gold price plunged lower once again, breaching the multi-year resistance line of 1080.00. Brent Oil at the same time has broken 55.50 resistance level.



EURUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.1102

Target 2: 1.0866

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0118

Daily control level: 1.1215



GBPUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.5632

Target 2: 1.5392

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0120

Daily control level: 1.5670






USDJPY



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 124.76

Target 2: 123.07

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.8415

Daily control level: 123.00






USDCHF



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.9678

Target 2: 0.9494

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0092

Daily control level: 0.9400




USDCAD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.3135

Target 2: 1.2935

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0100

Daily control level: 1.2675




AUDUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 0.7442

Target 2: 0.7262

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0090

Daily control level: 0.7490




GOLD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1106.42

Target 2: 1074.00

Projected range in ATR’s: 16.210

Daily control level: 1160.00



OIL



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 57.08

Target 2:  53.98

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.5543

Daily control level: 51.00



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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 27.07.2015



This Tuesday Greek government will begin the negotiations on the new 86 billion euro bailout agreement, which was previously approved with the two parliamentary votes with the latest last week.

Even though the short term agreement between Greece and its international creditors was settled ten days ago, Greek stock exchange remains closed for the 5th week.

The official Troika representative groups have arrived in Athens to conclude the bailout talks. The heads of the European Commission, European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund are expected to arrive a few days later.

The most belligerent issue for now is whether the Greece will need to carry out additional reform measures to receive the funds under the new bailout programme. The Athens are resisting strongly to that.

The negotiations deadline is set to be August 20, when Greece will need to pay another 3.2 billion euro on ECB held bonds.

Last week the banks were reopened, however would only provide limited service with the capital controls still there. Greek account holders are limited in their cash withdrawal to 420 Euro per week, which according to officials could last “for month”. Greek government request to lift the limits on trading were rejected by the European Central Bank last Friday.

The measures were implemented to avoid a likely bank runs, which could cause illiquidity and consequent economic collapse to the very fragile economy of the Balkan member. The large deposit outflow was seen in the country’s banks just before capital controls were introduced. It is expected that the only completion of the new bailout aid agreement will restore the confidence in the Greek banking system.

Large number of the businesses as a result have suffered significant sales declines, as they were unable to pay their suppliers. In addition, the recently increased VAT and reduction in pensions payments will lessen the population’s spending power even further.

Troika is seen negatively by the general Greek population, as it is believed its harsh austerity measures caused the economy to decline sharply and unemployment to soar to the record-high levels.

In the recently published report by the IMF, it warned that “Although market reaction to the recent reform package passed in Greece has been broadly positive, further episodes of significant uncertainty and volatility arising from the situation cannot be ruled out.”


EURUSD




The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.1098

Target 2: 1.0864

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0117

Daily control level: 1.1215



GBPUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.5622

Target 2: 1.5402

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0110

Daily control level: 1.5670




USDJPY



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Range

Target 1: 124.56

Target 2: 122.88

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.8375

Daily control level: 123.00



USDCHF



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.9705

Target 2: 0.9519

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0093

Daily control level: 0.9400



USDCAD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.3135

Target 2: 1.2939

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0098

Daily control level: 1.2675



AUDUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 0.7353

Target 2: 0.7183

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0085

Daily control level: 0.7490



GOLD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1115.23

Target 2: 1083.08

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.4520

Daily control level: 1160.00



OIL



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 56.28

Target 2: 53.38

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.4520

Daily control level: 51.00



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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 28.07.2015



The Chinese market continues to plummet, with the collapse is now compared to the US stock market crash in 1929.

In the yesterday’s selloff the benchmark for the mainland stocks index sunk to 3.725,56 which is 8.5%, with many equities down to more than 10%. It is estimated that the total decline since June amounts to 38%.

The plunge came quite unexpected as the government rescue programme had helped the index 16% up since July 16.

The Government of the China has made numerous efforts to support the markets, which up to now however brought little result. Among the measures were the ban of the major shareholders from selling their stock and IPOs suspension. Additional interventions to sustain the market were also convened however, were not very effective on the background of the generally slowing down the Chinese economy.

Yesterday China Security Regulatory Commission issued the statement, where it was remarked that the support for the equities will be prolonged and the government will “continue efforts to stabilize market and investor sentiment.”

Despite the continuous efforts by the Government to stabilize the markets investors “are concerned and lost,” as Bloomberg reports.

The Chinese market transparency has always been a concern it continues. “In a market where unprecedented intervention has made government money one of the biggest drivers of share prices, authorities aren’t transparent enough for investors to make informed decisions.”

Numerous markets and currencies were affected by the economic decline of the second world largest economy. China is the Australia’s largest exporting market, with now significantly reduced demand for the country’s raw materials caused the Australian Dollar to decline to six years low, reaching 0.7256 mark yesterday.

Canadian Dollar was in no better condition, continuing to lose its value dramatically with the price of USDCAD surpassing 1.3100 level on Friday.

Russian Rouble was not put aside by the market trend when USDRUB reached the four-month high to almost 60.00 mark yesterday.

The situation is putting downward pressure on the commodities, causing the Oil and Gold prices weaken further.



EURUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.1203

Target 2: 1.0973

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0115

Daily control level: 1.1215



GBPUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.5664

Target 2: 1.5452

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0106

Daily control level: 1.5670



USDJPY



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 123.98

Target 2: 122.49

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.740

Daily control level: 123.00




USDCHF



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.9703

Target 2: 0.9525

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0097

Daily control level: 0.9400




USDCAD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.3135

Target 2: 1.2939

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0098

Daily control level: 1.2675




AUDUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 0.7355

Target 2: 0.7183

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0085

Daily control level: 0.7490



GOLD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1110.49

Target 2: 1079.03

Projected range in ATR’s: 15.73

Daily control level: 1160.00



OIL



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 48.55

Target 2: 45.45

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.55

Daily control level: 51.00



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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 29.07.2015



This evening the Federal Reserve will announce its latest policy statement.
This announcement comes against the backdrop off falling oil, commodity prices and the collapse in the price of Chinese equities.

The widening of the Greek financial crisis for now has it seems been averted but there are still concerns that the rebels within the ruling SYRIZA party may cause enough ripples which could slow down the implementation of the third Greek austerity program.

The FOMC has had on its agenda for a long time the view that there needs to be a normalization of the interest rate environment. Therefore unless the current external financial instability becomes globally disruptive the FOMC will most likely stick to its present course of hiking rates gradually.

The question is when the FOMC will raise rates? Will it be September or December? A couple of weeks back the likelihood was that the Fed would pass on the opportunity to raise interest rates in September and look to launch its interest rate nominalization program in December. In recent weeks however we have seen an improvement in US economic data and a stabilization in the job numbers.

Therefore, it now looks like we see lift off in September. We may get some indication today from the Federal Reserve that this is their plan however with a lack of market news and the holiday season well and truly underway I would expect quiet days trading before we finally see a pick of activity this evening.



EURUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.1171

Target 2: 1.0947

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0112

Daily control level: 1.1020



GBPUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.5721

Target 2: 1.5505

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0108

Daily control level: 1.5520



USDJPY



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 124.26

Target 2: 122.84

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.71

Daily control level: 123.80





USDCHF



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.9710

Target 2: 0.9532

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0089

Daily control level: 0.9600




USDCAD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.3022

Target 2: 1.2820

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0101

Daily control level: 1.3050




AUDUSD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.7414

Target 2: 0.7249

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0084

Daily control level: 0.7250





GOLD



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1110.12

Target 2: 1079.52

Projected range in ATR’s: 15.30

Daily control level: 1105.00




OIL



The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 49.33

Target 2: 46.25

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.54

Daily control level: 49.00



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