MORE ON ACFXblog.comMARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 19.03.2015EURUSD
The intraday technical outlookThere has been over the past few trading sessions a rotation back into the Euro and this could have been seen by the higher low and higher high formation and the subsequent break in the channel top.
However yesterday’s Fed statement had a huge impact on the Forex markets as the modification of strategy meant that interest policy continues to remains dovish had the affect of sending EURUSD higher.
The strength and scale of the move higher sent EURUSD breaking through the long dated channel top.
However the price action was unable to sustain the move higher and has during this morning’s trading has retraced significantly.
This mornings pull back was needed and to be expected. However there has been a broad market shift into the Euro with positive flows coming from AUD, CAD, GBP, JPY, NZD, SGD, TRY and Gold. This leads me to believe that the move higher has legs to go further.
Especially as the strong multiple year support that was highlighted in prior articles at the 1.0570/1.0600 level has held.
There is of course always an alternative view that yesterday’s price action was just a very oversold market letting off some steam and that selling into rallies should continue to be the strategy of choice. We will have the answer to this question if EURUSD can breech the 1.0550 level.
From a technical perspective EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1.0550 level.
GBPUSD
The intraday technical outlookMuch like the Euro, Cable yesterday experienced a stellar rally that sent it on a massive move higher.
With the price action having broken above the prior isolated swing high the 1 hour trend is firmly bullish.
There has been a a correct pullback this morning and this was to be expected.
However as long as GBPUSD can stay above the 1.4635 level the 1 hour trend remains positive.
From a technical perspective GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1.4635 level
USDJPY
The intraday technical outlookThe Fed statement sent USDJPY lower in what can be describes as a V bottom formation.
The price action however has during the morning pulled back and is rapidly approaching the channel top.
This is an areas where the Bears will test the resolve of the Bulls to push USDJPY higher.
From a technical perspective USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 121.65 level.
USDCHF
The intraday technical outlookWhat I wrote for USDJPY equally applies to USDCHF.
The Fed statement sent USDCHF lower in what can be describes as a V bottom formation.
The price action however has during the morning pulled back and is rapidly approaching the channel top.
This is an areas where the Bears will test the resolve of the Bulls to push USDCHF higher.
From a technical perspective USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1.0125 level.
AUDUSD
The intraday technical outlookThe AUDUSD this morning naturally looks like a mirror image of what has happen to USDCHF and USDJPY
The Fed statement sent AUDUSD higher from its triangle consolidation pattern.
The price action however has during the morning pulled back and is rapidly approaching the channel bottom.
This is an areas where the Bulls will test the resolve of the Bears to push AUDUSD lower.
From a technical perspective the pair is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 0.7610 level.
GOLD
The intraday technical outlookThe news that the Federal Reserve was not raising interest rates any time soon pushed Gold higher.
The price action penetrated the upper level of its down channel.
The subsequent pull back has been limited with Gold experiencing a minor correction.
I will therefore this morning monitoring the price action for a continuation of the uptrend and a possible penetration of this mornings high at the 1175.00 level.
Alternatively if Gold cannot hold above the 1166.35 level there is a possibility that we see a pullback down to the 1157.00 congestion area.
From a technical perspective Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1147.50 level.
OIL
The intraday technical outlookOf all the pairs that I follow Oil had the least impressive rally.
Yes the price action did spike above a prior isolated high and
the price action penetrated the small down channel but move higher was not as impressive as what we saw in the Euro, Pound, Gold and Aussie.
To really be convinced that this move higher has some gas in the tank I would like first to see a successful retest of the yesterday’s high at the US$45.30 level.
A continuation of the move lower and a breach of the 42.00 level would firmly wipe out any hopes of a rally in Oil.
From a technical perspective Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 42.00 level.
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