Daily Technical Analysis
14th April 2014EURUSDSummaryFriday EURUSD did continue to trade higher as the price action remained above the 1.3875 level being the prior pivot high of the 24th March high.
There was an attempt to trade above the significant 1.3900 level however the price action failed to maintain upside momentum above this level
and ultimatley closed the day lower..
Market overviewEURUSD continues to trade in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 1.3741 level being the 24th January swing high.
The daily trend is now in gear with the strong weekly up trend. This price action has put the daily time frame in gear with the positive weekly trend.
Furthermore the large head and shoulders pattern would appear to be invalidated by the recent bullish momentum.
Focus on todayThis morning EURUSD has opened quietly but with a gap down from Friday’s close.
I am this morning monitoring the price actions for a potential move back to averages.
Alternatively if EURUSD fails to sustain lower prices there is a possibility we see a test of the 1.3900 level.
GBPUSDSummaryFriday GBPUSD traded lower as the price action rejected the 1.6795 resistance level which coincided with the prior high of the 17th February.
Market overview GBPUSD has traded above the 1.6668 being the prior isolated pivot high. This price activity has effectively changed the daily trend to up and puts it in line with the bullish weekly outlook.
Last week’s price activity has as expected, broken the converging triangle to the upside. However Friday’s price action has seen a move back to the converging triangle and the
1.6700 level and 8 period daily moving averages which should offer a level of support. A failure to maintain upside momentum at these levels will put a significant question on the strength of the daily trend.
Focus on today This morning GBPUSD has opened quietly as the price action trades at the lows of Friday’s candle range.
I am today monitoring the price action for a bounce off the 1.6700 support level.
Alternatively if GBPUSD cannot sustain higher prices could see the price action trade back into the triangle formation.
USDJPYSummaryFriday USDJPY continued to trade under the 101.70 and at the lows of Thursday’s range.
Market overview The breach of the 102.83 level being the swing high of the 21st February has effectively changed the daily trend to up and
therefore putting this time frame into gear with the bullish weekly time frame. The recent price action has seen a failure of the
head and shoulders pattern which confirms the current upward momentum. However USDJPY is now experiencing a strong corrective pull back.
A breach of the 101.19 level being the 14th March low would change the daily trend to down.
Focus on todayThis morning USDJPY has opened quietly with the price action trading within the previous two days candle range.
Today I am monitoring USDJPY for a test of the 101.19 level being the 14th March low.
Alternatively a failure to sustain lower prices could see USDJPY trade back up to the 34 period moving averages.
USDCHFSummaryFriday USDCHF continued to trade lower but with greatley reduced momentum.
Market overview USDCHF continues to trade in a negative daily and weekly swing bias but the recent price action is beginning to take on a bullish feel to it.
That recent 5 day collapse off trend line resistance has invalidated the inverse head and shoulders pattern. I am therefore considering the
break down from trend line and Fibonacci resistance as a resumption of the down trend.
Focus on today This morning USDCHF has opened quietly as it trades at the lows of Wednesday’s candle range.
Today I am monitoring the price action to potentially move into the direction of the 13th March low.
Alternatively a failure to sustain lower prices could see USDCHF trade back to its averages.
AUDUSDSummaryThursday AUDUSD continued to trade higher as the price action closed above the 0.9390 resistance level and accelarates towards the 78.6% Fibonacci resistance level.
Market overview AUDUSD has been trading in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 0.9080 level being the swing high of the 18th February.
However the weekly chart continues to trade in a weekly down trend with the price action now trading into the Fibonacci resistance area.
The target for the large inverse head and shoulders pattern at 0.9535 is now within reach.
Focus on todayThis morning AUDUSD has opened quietly as the price action trades within Fridaty’s candle range.
I am this morning monitoring the price action for a potential test of the 0.9535 resistance level.
Alternatively if AUDUSD fails to sustain higher prices there is a possibility that AUDUSD trades back down to the 0.9390 support level.
GOLDSummaryFriday Gold experience a quiet day as it continued to test the 34 period moving averages.
Market overview Gold continues to trade in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 1267.99 level being the swing high of the 10th December.
The test of the large downward sloping trend line adds impetus to the current positive swing bias. Furthermore we have witnessed a large multi month
double bottom forming which could indicate a large upside trend reversal is a possibility.
However the weekly time frame continues to point down. That the recent rejection of higher prices has come off a bounce from a downward sloping trend line and
Fibonacci resistance level could indicate that the recent rally in Gold is part of a bigger cycle correction that ultimately sends Gold lower.
More recently Gold has experienced a strong rally that has push the price action back into the daily averages. This area can possibly be viewed as a value area to add shorts.
Notwithstanding as Gold is now approaching the large downward sloping trend line we may see the price action naturally move to this area.
Focus on today This morning Gold has opened bullishly as the price action trades above the 34 period daily moving averages and last week’s range.
Today I am monitoring the price action for Gold to test the 1335.00 resistance level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could see Gold trade down to the 1310.00 support level.
OILSummaryFriday Oil continued to trade higher as the price action closed above the 103.00 resistance level.
Market overview Oil continues to trade in a daily uptrend following the breach of the 100.72 level being the swing high of the 24th December.
The daily and weekly times both have a positive bias. The recent price activity has seen the price action perform a text book move by trading down to
Fibonacci support and from there bouncing higher.
Focus on today This morning Oil has opened strongly as the price action trades tests Friday’s high candles range.
Today I am monitoring the price action for a test 105.00 support level.
Alternatively a failure to sustain higher prices could see Oil trade down to the 103.00 level.